Looking around the internet to check on the pulse of the post-Fiesta Bowl coverage…

Elevenwarriors.com is one of the few Buckeye sites that have surfaced following the loss. The summary is accurate and concurs with several points I made in the wee hours last night. Around the Oval and Buckeyecommentary are quiet for now, perhaps still in the fetal position as I was for the first 45 minutes after the game.

The national coverage is all over the map. In the post-game festivities, Mack Brown stated that the Longhorns are the #1 team in the country (why not, everybody else is shouting the same thing thanks to the BCS). The Dallas News, among others are poo-pooing this quickly putting UT somewhere between 3 & 5. Pete Thamel in the New York Times thinks the Big XII bowl performance thus far is a harbinger of bad things to come in the national championship game Thursday night. The Kansas City Star shares in the indictment of the Big XII.

Odeen Domingo in the Arizona Republic has a great article on Todd Boeckman and his performance last night. Props again to Boeckman and props to Domingo for a great piece.

Randy Hill at Foxsports.com points out that the game was really lose, lose. Mike Freeman at CBSsports.com echoes the lose,lose sentiments and takes it a couple dozen steps further by trashing the Buckeyes. Not a shocker that the SEC mouthpiece CBS is spewing hate, but here are a few of his gems:

“Congratulations, Texas. You won. You beat a tortoise-slow Ohio State team with its overrated coach who can no longer win a big postseason game. Nice work.”

“This was a lucky 24-21 Fiesta Bowl win over an average team whose claim to fame now is beating Michigan. Whoop-de-damn-do. Everyone beats Michigan.”

“He (McCoy) should have put up 600 yards and five touchdowns against this mediocre Buckeyes defense.”

“Florida would’ve destroyed this Ohio State team (been there, done that) and Oklahoma would have as well. Utah would’ve spanked them, too. The Buckeyes just aren’t that good.”

Longhorn nation is rightfully giddy, and the manlove for Colt McCoy and Quan Cosby is in full effect (again, rightfully so).

On the lighter side of things, Dr. Saturday points out the ridiculousness of what conference commissioners say, this time from Big Ten Commish Jim Delaney.

EDSBS and Busted Coverage both commented on what I laughed at while watching the broadcast last night- the best mullet on TV in quite awhile (outside of hockey of course, not that hockey is still on any version of standard television programming). Mega props though for getting in three exceptional mullet phrases in one paragraph- my personal favorite of his is “WWF Sex Cowl”. Good work sir.

EDSBS also had a nice bit about Mack Brown’s “I’m the king of the world” speech during the Fiesta fiesta. And in answer to the paranthetical final paragraph, Buckeye nation is also fully tired from “Tressel fatigue”.

Finally, in one of the few redeeming moments of the overall Fox broadcast, and the only reason I didn’t throw a size 10 1/2 through my 47″ Vizio for the repeated and evermore obligatory shots of Colt McCoy’s parents, was the presence of McCoy’s girlfriend Rachel Glandorf. Busted Coverage picked up on this as well and put in their two cents. We agree she’s Jessica Simpson-esque, but several clicks better; we presume she’s got fewer Hollywood/athlete Mimbo miles on her and statistically, the odds say she has to be at least slightly smarter than Simpson. Colt, watch your back for Nick Lachey.

You’re welcome.

Cue Cinderella, it’s going to be a long cold winter in Columbus.

Ohio State fans are experiencing new and exciting ways to lose high profile games. First there was the blowout loss (Florida/USC), the pretty big loss but still in it (LSU), and the turnover/slow drip loss (Penn State). Now, the crushing, gut-wrenching come-from-behind loss. So many things to cover, most of which should probably wait until I get a chance to see the game again. My initial impressions, first the good/neutral:

**The team showed tremendous heart staying in the game and fighting until the clock ran out. That effort was not present against Florida two years ago or USC this year.

**As much as I’ve railed on the offensive line this year, the run blocking was fantastic in the 1st half. Unfortunately Beanie went out with an injury which then forced the offense to go on some bizarre acid trip (more on that).

**If I were to pick an MVP for the Buckeyes this year, it would be Todd Boeckman. To be a captain, then lose your job to a freshman, watch that freshman go through some struggles and to still have the positive attitude and leadership he has is a testament to the kind of person Todd is. Todd’s career at Ohio State certainly didn’t go the way he probably had hoped it would, but many years from now his kids and grandkids will be able to look back on what he did and be very proud.

**I’m short on time tonight but I’m pretty sure there has never been a football game played where the QB while acting as a receiver was called for pass interference, and that same QB also caught a touchdown pass. Somebody look it up. Regardless, I hope Tajh Boyd was watching. Tajh- if you were, come to Ohio State and you’ll get to catch a touchdown.

**Brian Robiskie had one heck of a game. Robo’s another guy that makes me proud to be a Buckeye. All class, great in the classroom, and hopefully will be a great Pro.

**The entire defense played outstanding (except for the last missed tackle/bad angle of course). It looked like the success Texas had was mostly scheme-related and not execution.

Now the other observations:

**Watching Ohio State on offense is like watching somebody hopped up on 10 espressos do their grocery shopping. One second they’re grabbing a box of Eggos, the next they’re sniffing blueberries in the produce section. I have no actual experience with this, though I do sniff my oranges (if it doesn’t smell like an orange, it isn’t going to taste any good). The Buckeyes had just about everything on display tonight- old school Big Ten run game, pro passing attack, option, and the offense that makes you bury your head in your hands.

The insanity on offense was partially fueled by Beanie’s concussion (aka mysterious injury), but this team just doesn’t seem to have an identity on that side of the ball. I don’t know if it’s Tressel or Bollman but something needs to change. You can run power off-tackle stuff and an option passing attack, but it’s got to be somehow thematically integrated. If I didn’t know any better, I’d think the OSU coaching staff was pulling each offensive play out of a hat prior to sending the signal in.

**Terrelle Pryor is a very gifted athlete and I’m fully on the bandwagon, but why in the hell is he pulling up and running out of bounds? I counted three instances in the game where he dipped out of bounds, two of which stopped just short of first downs, and one inside the ten. If ever you’re going to let your running QB keep it in bounds for another 3-6 yards or (gasp), score a touchdown, the time to do it is with a Senior veteran backup QB.

**More of the same problems for the Buckeyes- trading field goals for touchdowns. Memo to Coach JT- that works in the Big Ten but not in big time bowl games. Whether it’s coaching or execution or some combination of both, one of the many things this team will be remembered for is putting the red in red zone. This must be fixed in the off-season.

**Texas was able to catch the defense off guard for far too long with the no huddle. Call a freaking time out and regroup the personnel. Neutral zone infractions, players out of position, late substitutions, etc, etc. all contributed to the success Texas had in the 2nd half. Kudos to Texas for making those adjustments and catching the Buckeyes off guard.

**On the final Texas TD throw, I understand we blitzed a safety, but why wasn’t the nickel or Anderson Russel playing deeper? Or why didn’t one of the Linebackers drop back quicker? Marcus Freeman looked like he was starting to roll back, but the play was practically over by then. Absolutely ponderous. Anderson Russell needed to make the play as well; trying to jump the route without deep help at the end of the game and while only a touchdown can beat you is a bad choice.

More to come later Tuesday.

I’m a numbers guy and I’ve gone deep in looking for insight into what may happen in the Fiesta Bowl this evening. My prediction for the game follows at the bottom of all this, but in the meantime, here’s nearly every stat you’ll need to get you ready for the game. First, my usual breakdown:

Of note here in the initial look is the line- started at 10 and is now “down” to 8.5. Texas holds the obvious advantage in scoring offense, but the gap isn’t quite as big as I thought it would be. Scoring defense is also closer than I expected with Texas trailing Ohio State by 13 places. Turnover margin is an advantage for Ohio State should the game play out as the season has. Protecting the quarterback is obviously an area of concern- Texas’ pass rush is fierce as evidenced by their 44 sacks on the year.

Time to dig a little deeper:

Despite Texas not having a dominant running back, their total production was much better than I expected to see (35th nationally vs. 26th for OSU). The passing offense statistic is one of the biggest keys to the game- Ohio State must slow Texas down and Texas will force Ohio State to win by throwing. Both teams are stout against the run and do an average job of controlling the clock. Both teams are fairly even in sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed.

Digging a little deeper:

Texas clearly dominates on 3rd & 4th down conversion offensively so it will be important for Ohio State to do well on 1st and 2nd downs. Red zone offense overwhelmingly favors Texas while both teams are pretty even on red zone defense. The yards per catch stat is very interesting, indicating that discounting for number of pass attempts, both teams have similar capabilities passing the ball.

Looking at the schedules, Texas played seven bowl teams (highlighted in red) going 6-1:

Ohio State played six bowl teams going 4-2 against them:

I also find value in looking at talent for both teams, at least in terms of player ratings/NFL potential. In just about every high profile match up of late, it’s always assumed that Ohio State is less talented (aka “less speed”). The data does not support that in this game. I will say as a caveat, while looking at NFL ratings, several of the Texas players that were higher rated according to scouts aren’t in the Texas two-deep. This is perhaps why Texas has underperformed somewhat in the past based on their recruiting- perhaps Mack Brown is a little too loyal to upper classmen.

The first place to look is the top overall Seniors according to nfldraftcountdown.com. This isn’t a mock draft listing, rather it’s the player ranking of the top 100 seniors this year. Texas is a pretty young team with only 9 senior starters; this is evidenced below in their Senior rankings:

Ohio State also only starts 9 senior starters but several of those players rank higher than their Texas counterparts (edge here goes to Ohio State):

Next up is the Rivals.com Top 25 player rankings at each position. This is inclusive of underclassmen but excludes so many players (not enough top 25 players at each position on each team) that it doesn’t provide a ton of insight. I’d give a slight edge to Texas based on this comparison:

Finally, I searched for a more comprehensive player ranking in terms of NFL future. NFLdraftscout.com lists nearly every player for both teams two-deep and rates them based on the likelihood of them being drafted. The lower the number, the greater likelihood they’ll be drafted into the NFL; the higher the number, the lesser likelihood they’ll be drafted. Here’s the full listing with player ratings:

Interestingly enough, Ohio State holds the edge here over Texas with a 19.4 player average vs. 20.5 for Texas.

These numbers also allow a unit analysis which is shown below:

Ohio State gets the overall edge and in pretty surprising fashion, with Texas only having a unit advantage on paper for O-Line and special teams.

Finally, taking a look at unit vs. unit as it could play out on the field:

I believe the game comes down to five factors, all of which must go Ohio State’s way:

1.) Turnovers. Ohio State has been dominant this year in turnover margin, making key takeaways and limiting mistakes. Two of the biggest mistakes resulted in both losses for the Buckeyes- Maualuga’s TD interception of Boeckman in the USC game and Pryor’s fumble late in the Penn State game. The Buckeyes must keep turnover margin even or better.

2.) Throwing the ball. Good teams can take away part of an offense. In order for Beanie to have the night Buckeye fans need him to have, Terrelle must throw successfully, and early. Three quick incompletions will affect the offense’s confidence for the rest of the game. Three quick completions will do the same but in a positive manner.

3.) Protection. This is something I cite frequently and will be more important than ever tonight. I don’t feel warm and fuzzy about the Brian Orakpo-Alex Boone matchup. I sure hope Boone plays the game of his life because Buckeye fans will need it. If Ohio State has to double up on Orakpo, that will leave Bryant Browning exposed on the other side and we all know how that’s going to turn out. Boone has to step up and Pryor has to use his feet to save a couple plays. Wrapping up offense, the best thing to do against a fierce rush is to run right at it. Runs against the blitz should be successful if Ohio State sticks with Beanie (25+ carries).

4.) “No Zone” zone. Colt McCoy has laser accuracy, one of the best in terms of accuracy in the history of college football. No zone allowed tonight. Ohio State has the secondary to cover the Texas receivers in man coverage, then blitz Texas back into the stone ages. Colt McCoy will still connect on plays but getting to him and affecting passing lanes will get the Texas offense off the field more often than not. I repeat, leave the zone defense on the bus. Please.

5.) TP. It’s unfair to rest an entire bowl game on a freshman but that’s the situation in place. The game will go as Terrelle Pryor goes. If he plays to his capability, Ohio State will win. If he plays as he played against Penn State and at other low-points during the season, it’s going to be another long, cold winter in Columbus.

In the end, I’m hopeful that the OSU coaching staff will learn from their previous mistakes and get more aggressive (don’t read as gimmicky) on both offense and defense. Texas is far too good for Tressel ball, though the game could be close if the Buckeyes can score some points. The offensive line has been a huge disappointment this year and though I’m hopeful the lights will go on tonight, I’ve very, very skeptical. Finally, I’m hopeful that Terrelle Pryor will play the kind of game that gets him Heisman talk for next year; unfortunately, I think he’s still 1/2 a season away.

The caveat I’ll present is I’ve missed on almost every bowl pick this year. Take that for what it’s worth.

Final Score:
Texas 31
Ohio State 20

Apparently the Nittany Lions weren’t providing enough interest for USC LB Rey Maualuga in the Rose Bowl so he decided to go “Night at the Roxbury” with our favorite sideline reporter Erin Andrews. Enjoy:

There are loads of reasons for Buckeye nation to not feel good about Monday night- the recent “big game” record, the problems with the offensive line, the Big Ten bowl performance this year, the fact that Texas is ranked 2nd in rush defense and Colt McCoy has been deadly accurate, etc., etc. There are plenty of reasons for optimism though, and with any luck optimism will win out.

1.) The long layoff could actually help the Buckeyes this year. Much was made of the long layoffs the last two years, but for a team that largely reinvented itself on offense 1/3rd of the way through the season, another several weeks of practice is a very, very good thing. With freshmen at quarterback and center, a second spring practice is exactly what this team needed.

2.) The foot. Every team plays with injuries but any sensible college football fan would admit that Beanie Wells’ foot injury in the season opener changed the complexion of the season for the Buckeyes. He’s the healthiest he’s been since the injury and according to reports is even running in a regular shoe now. Assuming this is his final collegiate game, Beanie could be motivated and healthy enough to do something extraordinary.

3.) Ohio State knows Texas. These are different players to be sure, but there is a level of familiarity with Texas after the regular season games in 2005 and 2006. It’s not really an advantage for either team, but may help Ohio State compared to Florida or LSU the last two seasons.

4.) There’s no Beanie in the Big XII. Texas is #2 in the country in rush D but haven’t played against anyone as good as Beanie. The only Big XII rusher that’s in the top 45 nationally is Oklahoma State’s Kendall Hunter. Hunter is smaller than Beanie (only 5′8″, 190) and yet Hunter rushed for 161 yards on 18 carries against the Longhorns. Texas has a fierce pass rush and sometimes the best thing to do to combat that is to run right at it. With a big dude that’s fast. Hmmmm….

5.) Texas thinks they should be in the National Championship. Texas is too good and too well-coached to take a consolation game for granted, but should Ohio State jump out to an early lead, emotions could turn against the Longhorns.

6.) Young secondary. Texas has the 109th best (worst) pass defense in the country. Part of that is the offenses they played against in the Big XII and part is that most of their opponents have been playing catch up. A big reason also is that the Longhorns have four freshmen and two sophomores in the two-deep in the secondary. Good for the future but not necessarily a good thing against veteran receivers like Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline.

7.) The underdogs won on Friday night. The dogs haven’t done well this bowl season, but at least Friday night in the Cotton Bowl and the Sugar Bowl, Mississippi and Utah both won.

You’re welcome.

Connection problems and some late night Wii-ing New Year’s Eve brought the site to a halt. Had I been able to get the post up, I would have predicted (surely) Iowa by 21, Georgia by 12, Nebraska by 5, USC by 14, and Virginia Tech by 13, which is exactly what happened.

Unfortunately, the scenario I pointed out on several occasions whereby the Big Ten goes down in heartland flames is coming true. With the exception of Iowa beating South Carolina (Iowa was the only Big Ten team favored originally) and Northwestern covering the spread against Missouri (but still losing), the Big Ten is what we thought they were- soundly beaten underdogs.

Ordinarily I’d spend three or four paragraphs going on about how we need a playoff and how USC would beat Florida or Oklahoma, but it just doesn’t matter. The bowl games have been somewhat competitive (average margin of victory of 11 points) but mostly flat. The two BCS games played so far have been huge disappointments and pretty bad television (unless you happen to be a USC or VT fan).

On to the games today…

The Michael Crabtree-Breakaway-Last-Minute-Touchdown Catch Bowl (aka “the Cotton Bowl”)
Texas Tech vs. Mississippi / Dallas, TX / January 2nd, 2pm / Fox

I’m setting the over/under on either showing or mentioning Michael Crabtree’s game-winning touchdown catch against Texas at 3. Never mind that the interception that Texas didn’t make on the prior play was the real play of the game. It looks to be a competitive game, at least by the numbers.

Ole Miss is probably one of the best teams you haven’t seen play this year and Texas Tech is what we know them to be- good on offense, potentially good on defense, and slightly crazy at the top (coaching).

The obvious plot is Big XII vs. SEC here but also of note is the emotional hurdle Texas Tech will have. They’re certainly disappointed for not being part of the BCS and will either use it as motivation or let it block their focus. The statistics look good on paper, and of special note is the number of sacks Mississippi has (5th in the nation). They’re pass-rushing ability could be the difference in the game. Texas Tech is favored by 4.

The January Stain Bowl, Part I (aka “the Autozone Liberty Bowl”)
East Carolina vs. Kentucky / Memphis, TN / January 2nd, 5pm / ESPN

The January 1st and beyond bowls should be the cream of the crop, the best teams in the best games as the competition rises like a crescendo. Instead, this game and the International Bowl (January 3rd) have snuck their way in.

This game pits the Conference USA champ (East Carolina) against a 6-6 SEC team that’s lost three games in a row, lost to everyone of worth in the conference, and who’s best win was probably over 5-7 Arkansas. Feel the magic. East Carolina is favored by 3.

The Tide Ute Bowl (aka “the Allstate Sugar Bowl”)
Alabama vs. Utah / New Orleans, LA / January 2nd, 8pm / Fox

This bowl features two of the more obscure mascots in college football playing in what should be an entertaining game. Alabama has been charmed all season and will be looking for more of that against a very quality Utah team, the best of the non-majors as has been my opinion all season.

Big things were expected of the Mountain West in the postseason, especially after their domination of the Pac-Ten during the regular season, but so far mixed results. The MWC is 2-2 with high profile BYU losing to Arizona and TCU escaping with a one-point win over Boise State.

Utah is balanced on offense and good on defense, but I’m not sure they’ve got enough to overcome the domination they’re going to face on both lines. Particularly on offense, Utah is going to be hard pressed to stop the Alabama pass rush and that will probably be the difference in the game. Both teams are stingy with the turnovers so whomever wins that battle will also likely be victorious.

Incidentally, the SEC is 3-1 so far in bowl games and has covered the spread in two of those three wins. Alabama is favored by 9.5.

More installments to follow…

The Dry Cheerios Bowl (aka “the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl”)
Air Force vs. Houston / Fort Worth, TX / December 31st, Noon / ESPN

On mornings when I’m in a hurry or on the road early, I have dry Cheerios in a bag for breakfast (plus a banana). That’s what this game is- a bag of dry Cheerios. Houston’s favored by 5.

The Sweet First Names Bowl (aka “the Sun Bowl”)
Oregon State vs. Pittsburgh / El Paso, TX / December 31st, 2pm / CBS

LeSean, meet Jacquizz. Jacquizz, meet LeSean. Two of the best names in all of football and two of the best backs in the country. Unfortunately Jacquizz got Jacquizzed and will not be playing. Oregon State also has to recover from the ass-kicking they took at the hands of Oregon that kept them out of the Rose Bowl. Believe it or not, this is the first bowl game for the Wannstache in the four years he’s been at Pitt. Oregon State is favored by 1.5.

The ‘Hey Look! Another 6-6 Team Bowl Game’ (aka “the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl”)
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt / Nashville, TN / December 31st, 3:30pm / ESPN

Vanderbilt is still living off the glory of the lone impressive win- a victory over 7-5 South Carolina. Other than that, they took a bunch of lumps in what was a down year for the SEC. Boston College is in the ACC so say it with me- go Vanderbilt. Boston College is favored by 4.

The Damn Back-Loaded Schedules Bowl (aka “the Insight Bowl”)
Minnesota vs. Kansas / Tempe, AZ / December 31st, 6pm / NFL Network

Minnesota was all tough-looking until they hit their last four games (Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa) and lost four in a row, including a 55-0 loss to Iowa. Missouri salvaged the end of their season with a win over Missouri but still managed to lose four of their last six. Winner gets the boosters off their back for a few months. Kansas is favored by 7.5.

The LSU Dunking Booth Bowl (aka “the Chick-Fil-A Bowl”)
LSU vs. Georgia Tech / Atlanta, GA / December 31st, 7:30pm / ESPN

It’s quite stunning to think that defending national champ LSU could finish the season 7-6. Is the Les Miles magic finally starting to wear off? LSU lost in blowout fashion to Georgia and Florida while losing closer games to ‘Bama, Ole Miss and Arkansas. Now they’ve got to deal with Georgia Tech and the triple option. Uh oh. Could be a problem for an LSU defense that ranked at or near the bottom of most statistical categories. Georgia Tech is favored by 5.

More installments to follow…

We returned to the Red Renee world headquarters two days ago to find a blown sump pump and a basement full of water. Needless to say, the site’s running a little slow.

The “big boy” bowl games are fast approaching so it’s time to take brief moment and look back on the rest.

In terms of conference performance, the Pac-Ten and the Big East have looked impressive so far. Both conferences are 3-0 and the only thing separating them is the fact that Rutgers didn’t cover the spread so by my numbers, the Pac-Ten is in slightly better shape. Despite having a 3-3 record, the ACC has also performed well. They were underdogs in the three games they lost and covered the spread in the three wins (good for nine points total).

Here’s the current point total by conference (not divided yet because all the games haven’t been played). If you need a refresher on my point system, click here.

The favorites have won 13 of 17 bowl games so far which doesn’t bode well for future underdogs. In those 13 wins, the favorites covered the spread 9 times.

In terms of notable performances, there were a couple that stood out for me. Willie Tuitama finished his career with Arizona on a very high note going 24-35 for 325 yards and two touchdowns in the win over BYU. Tuitama had a very up and down year, but pulled it together when it counted.

For all the crap I’ve given Notre Dame this year, they impressed me in their game against Hawaii. Hawaii is a very mediocre team, but Notre Dame couldn’t beat several other mediocre teams during the regular season so there’s at least evidence of growth. The Irish will need to win games against similar opponents next year or Chuck Weis will surely be out. The bad news on this is the positive press for Notre Dame during the off-season will be insufferable and there will likely be a couple slobs that even mention Jimmy Clausen for the Heisman next year (ugh).

I was unimpressed with the Badgers in their blowout loss to Florida State. Bret Bielema may in fact be in over his head; a 7-7 record in 2008 including the Outback Bowl loss in January doesn’t look good. Badger nation is getting restless- like here, or the obligatory firebretbielema.com. They’ve got questions all over the place to get answered for 2009, otherwise Bielema might be on his way out.

Jahvid Best. Get to know his name. If you haven’t watched Pac-Ten football this year, you’ve missed one of the best backs in the country. JB finished the year with almost 1,600 yards and more impressively, an 8.1 yard per carry average. He’s only a Sophomore so expect him to do big things next year.

Mike Teel finished off a remarkable season recovery for Rutgers. The Senior QB had a dismal first half of the season throwing 3 touchdowns against 7 interceptions, with a 56% completion percentage. Through the final six games, he threw 20 touchdowns against only 5 interceptions, and improved his completion percentage to 68%.

I have to give credit to both Northwestern and Missouri. To Northwestern for playing tough and not giving up against a Missouri team that simply had more talent. To Missouri for keeping their heads in a game that they could have not been prepared for mentally given all they’ve been through this year. On a sidebar, bad form to Northwestern in overtime. How can you not put the ball in Tyrell Sutton’s hands even once after such a productive regulation. That’s why they’re Northwestern I suppose, but inexcusable play-calling.

Finally, huge props to Oregon. I called for an Oklahoma State win on the basis of them having the better QB. Clearly I was wrong. Jeremiah Masoli played lights out when he needed to, particularly running the ball. The second best touchdown of the night came in the 3rd quarter when Masoli plowed over a defender and ran the ball in for the score (see highlights below). The best touchdown of the game and one of the best touchdowns of the entire college football season came from Oregon RB LeGarrette Blount in the 4th quarter (about 3:07 mark). Blount takes the handoff, hurdles a dude, then drags two other defenders into the end zone. Beanie-esque if you will (I know you will).

In fairness to Okie State, Dez Bryant played on only one knee (still was the leading receiver), but somebody else needed to step up. The jury is still out on Big XII dominance as well. Oregon has the 77th ranked scoring defense and yet a mighty Big XII offense was held to 31 points.

You’re welcome.

Photo: Garcia/AP

The Left for Dead Bowl (aka “the Papajohns.com Bowl”)
Rutgers vs. NC State / Birmingham, AL / December 29th, 3pm / ESPN

Right about the middle of the season neither of these teams looked like they would sniff the post-season, let alone qualify for the illustrious Papajohns.com bowl. Thanks to a six-game winning streak for Rutgers and a four-game winning streak for NC State, they’ll dance in Birmingham this afternoon. Rutgers is favored by 7 and NC State is yet another 6-6 team playing in a bowl game.

The Emotion Bowl (aka the “Valero Alamo Bowl”)
Missouri vs. Northwestern / San Antonio, TX / December 29th, 8pm / ESPN

According to Vegas (Missouri favored by 12.5), this doesn’t look to be much of a game. For your consideration though is:

*The fact that the past three Alamo Bowls have been decided by an average of only 4 points
*Northwestern comes in with a 3-game winning streak and gets their best offensive player back healthy (Tyrell Sutton), and
*Missouri comes in with a two-game losing streak including the beating at the hands of Oklahoma (62-21).

Emotion will be the decision-maker for this one with Missouri having championship expectations at the beginning of the season and now playing in a consolation game, twice removed. Missouri’s strength (offense- 6th in scoring) goes against Northwestern’s (defense- 23rd in scoring) and Missouri’s weakness (defense- 74th in scoring) goes against Northwestern’s (offense- 75th in scoring). The Big Ten needs Northwestern to come through in this one.

The “How to Waste a Smokin’ Offense in 12 Easy Games Bowl” (aka the “Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl”)
Nevada vs. Maryland / Boise, ID / December 30th, 4:30pm / ESPN

I had such high hopes for Nevada in 2008 after watching a young Colin Kaepernick light it up in 2007; too bad the Nevada defense never really showed up. The Wolfpack are 12th nationally in scoring offense but a dismal 98th in scoring defense. Nevada got destroyed out-of-conference against Missouri and Texas Tech and failed in their chance for a WAC statement in their loss to Boise State. I’m still hopeful for ACC destruction so I’ll once again be pulling for Nevada to win. Nevada is favored by 2.

The Commercial Bowl (aka the “Texas Bowl”)
Rice vs. Western Michigan / Houston, TX / December 30th, 8pm / NFL Network

There are two games at 8pm on Tuesday night- this one on NFL Network plus Oklahoma State-Oregon over on ESPN. This matchup doesn’t even merit picture-in-picture for me; it’s what I’m flipping over to when the ESPN game is on commercial. Rice is favored by 2.5.

The Go for Two Bowl (aka the “Pacific Life Holiday Bowl”)
Oklahoma State vs. Oregon / San Diego, CA / December 30th, 8pm / ESPN

Of the remaining bowl games, this one has the highest over/under at 76 points. Both teams are very proficient at offense (top ten in scoring) and very deficient in defense (69th & 77th in scoring defense). Both teams have gained over 3,000 yards rushing and average over 41 points per game.

Oregon waddles in with a three-game winning streak, including a dominant win over rival Oregon State which kept OSU out of the Rose Bowl. Oklahoma State’s last game was the against Oklahoma where they traded punches pretty successfully until they just ran out of gas and eventually lost 61-41. This game won’t give us the “Big XII offense against a good defense” test, but should be a good measure of how good Oklahoma State is. I like the Cowboys because of QB play- I think Zack Robinson will be the better of the two QB’s on the field and will be the difference. Oklahoma State is favored by 3.

More installments to follow…