To Quinn or Not to Quinn, That is the Question

The NFL draft is this weekend and NFL fans everywhere are awakening from their winter hibernation and lumbering out of the cave to turn on the tele. The only exception of course is New York Jet fans who do not hibernate but rather spend the off-season throwing down Jager-bombs and prepping their vocal chords for the booing after the Jets’ first pick is announced on Saturday.

Much of the discussion by NFL draft analysts has surrounded the two quarterbacks likely to be taken in the first round- JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn. We’ve done some historical research on Quarterbacks selected in the first round and we have some advice for NFL General Managers: Caveat emptor.

Since 1993, eight QB’s have been taken #1 overall. Of those eight, only four have made it to a Pro-Bowl. That’s a 50/50 proposition which is pretty poor odds for the # 1 overall pick. It gets worse for “the field”. Of the six non-QB overall #1 selections during that time frame, only two of them (Orlando Pace and Keyshawn Johnson) have made it to a Pro-Bowl. Based on all that, if I were the Raiders picking #1 this year, I’d trade down. Make a deal with the Texans and let them wreck their franchise again. Make a trade with Detroit- the only thing better than them stock-piling another first round Wide Receiver bust is doing it #1 overall. Hell, make a trade with the valet at Radio City Music Hall, who cares.

Since 1993 a total of thirty-three QB’s have been selected in round one. Of those thirty-three, only eleven have made it to a Pro-Bowl, and two of those eleven were Trent Dilfer and Kerry Collins… So consider that of the QB’s drafted in the first round, less than 1/3rd have made it to the Pro-Bowl. Yikes.

Eleven Quarterbacks have been selected in picks two through six and six of them have made the Pro-Bowl. That’s a 55% success rate. Slightly better than #1 overall but still not a lot of comfort for the future of a franchise.

But wait, it gets even better. Of the fourteen Quarterbacks selected 7th or later in the first round, only one has made it to the Pro-Bowl- Daunte Culpepper who was the 11th pick in 1999. That’s a 9% success rate. So, unless you’re taking your man in picks one through six, you’d best wait ’till round two. That means no reaching for BYU QB John Beck or MSU QB Drew Stanton.

Finally, since 1993, of all the years where multiple Quarterbacks were selected in Round 1, only one year had all Quarterbacks selected eventually make the Pro Bowl- 1995 which had Steve McNair and Kerry Collins selected.

What does all this mean? Not much. At worst, it means they’ll both be busts in the league. The likely case means only one of the JaMarcus Russell/Brady Quinn combo will make the Pro Bowl. At best, it means one of them will be Kerry Collins.

We’re trading down.

You’re welcome.