The Ocho - Inaugural Edition
Today is the official launch of the first Red Renee Top 8 college football poll- the Ocho if you will. Why ocho? Because we want to see an 8-team playoff at the end of the season and we firmly believe in the “Field of Dreams†theory- if we write it, it will happen. Before the unveiling, a few qualifiers and legal disclaimers…
As I’ve stated previously, and as evidenced below, undefeated teams aren’t automatically placed ahead of one-loss teams. I start with Sagarin rankings and strength of schedule calculations and then, based on everything I’ve seen from all the teams so far, I ask myself “if team “A†were to play team “B†at a neutral or quasi-neutral site, who would win� I also down-grade teams significantly if they’re one-dimensional on offense. Against a quality team, one-dimensional offenses always lose. Not a very scientific process but better than having my S.I.D. or Graduate Assistant fill out the ballot for me. (note to self….get a Graduate Assistant).
So without further ado, and just in time for the weekend, here’s the Ocho:
1.) USC (4-0) Still the most complete team top to bottom. Giving up 31 points to Nebraska and 24 points to Washington worry me and might cause me to change my mind next week.
2.) LSU (5-0) Got to be honest- if anyone other than Les Miles was coaching this team, they’d be my # 1. I do think they’re going to beat Florida this weekend though.
3.) Cal (5-0) Giving up 24 points a game on defense is a concern but I still think they would probably beat everyone I’ve got below ‘em. The win at Autzen Stadium last week scored big points with me.
4.) Oregon (4-1) Call me a Pac-10 homer but # 21 strength of schedule and a well-balanced offense are the reasons why I love the Ducks. Their defense has some weaknesses but they’ve got plenty of offensive firepower to win a shootout.
5.) Oklahoma (4-1) I’m not sold on Oklahoma- especially after their look-ahead loss at Colorado last week. I think they’re going to beat Texas this week and handle the rest of the Big 12 really well….which is why I see them slowly rising over the next few weeks anyways….so why not just put them here now? It’s a reach, I know. Head-to-head, I think they beat 6, 7, and 8 below.
6.) Ohio State (5-0) This is a young team. Turnovers and some kicking game issues concern me. I think they’re still a year away from a return trip to the NC and at this point, 1-5 would all beat them at a neutral site. A win this weekend at night at 5-0 Purdue will show me a lot. A loss will put them out of the Ocho and it will take a beat down of Penn State and Wisconsin to get back in.
7.) South Carolina (4-1) Wins at Georgia and home against Kentucky. Solid (not spectacular) on offense and defense. No shame in the 28-16 loss at LSU. This is a good football team and they should continue to roll until they meet up with Florida on November 10th- this outcome will define whether this is a good season or a great season for the Gamecocks.
8.) South Florida (4-0) I bounced this around back and forth in my head trying to justify keeping South Florida out of the Ocho and I just can’t. # 30 strength of schedule legitimizes that 4-0 record. I love the win at Auburn and I like the win over West Virginia at home. I bumped them down from # 6 (where they are in the AP poll) because they don’t have a running game. This will cost them a game at some point this season, likely at Rutgers in a few weeks.
If you disagree, great. Tell me about it. I watch a lot of college football though so I’m pretty sure you’re wrong.
You’re welcome.
Posted in The Ocho, Proof (Statistical) That Statistics Don't Matter, Sports, Uncategorized |
October 11th, 2007 at 4:35 am
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