Idiot Country

I want to tell you about a special place. A place where paid journalists can make sweeping generalizations with little or no factual support. A place where logic and reason aren’t welcome but close-mindedness ignorance are welcome neighbors. That place my friends is Idiot Country. The newest resident in Idiot Country is Foxsports.com senior writer Don Borst.

Among many gems in Don Borst’s article today are the following: “…as things stand, it sure looks like we’re destined to watch a repeat of last season’s BCS championship game- top-ranked Ohio State getting blown out by a much more complete team.” “…put them (Ohio State) in New Orleans on Jan. 7 against a second-ranked team like LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon, or USC, and we’d have another ugly tilt along the lines of last year’s 41-14 drubbing of the Buckeyes by Florida.” “…OSU’s four remaining opponents currently are 23-9, but those records are just as hopelessly padded by the soft non-league schedules Big Ten teams played this year.”

That’s more generalities than I thought could fit into three articles, let alone one. Unfortunately, without a playoff in D-I, we’re going to continue to be subjected to unsubstantiated reckless commentary from the likes of Don Borst and many others. And as angry as his comments make me, and as easy as it would be to quickly use reason to shoot holes in most of his arguments, I’m not going to provide him the courtesy of such a response.

Let’s take a few steps back and look at what we know and we don’t know after 8 weeks of college football. Let’s also keep in mind that we don’t really know how good opponents are until we’re at the end of the season and we have the ability to look retrospectively at the entire body of work. All the games have not been played yet, and when they have, the schedules will have somewhat evened themselves out:

Ohio State (8-0)- Strength of schedule is low (Sagarin # 71) but they’ve performed admirably against that schedule with a 26-point average margin of victory and no major statistical weaknesses to be exploited by future opponents (turnover margin is still a concern though- 60th in the country). By win-loss record, Ohio State’s remaining schedule is the 4th most difficult in the country. We’ll find out how good Ohio State is.

Boston College (7-0)- Strength of schedule is going to get much tougher for the Eagles as well. Their previous opponents have a 21-30 record while their future opponents have a record of 21-12. Why get worked up now about BC being # 2? We’ll find out how good they are. Statistically, BC’s 105th ranked pass defense is a potential weakness.

LSU (7-1)- Brutally tough schedule to this point (Sagarin S.O.S. at # 10). It turns out that LSU’s schedule has been front-loaded and they’ve done well only losing once in triple-overtime on the road. Their future schedule is easier than Ohio State’s previous schedule has been. The combined record of LSU’s future opponents is 11-16 which makes for the 89th most difficult remaining schedule (not counting the SEC Championship). We’ll find out if LSU can stay disciplined and win the games they’re supposed to down the stretch like Ohio State and Boston College have to this point.

Arizona State (7-0)- Strength of schedule is low (Sagarin # 60). They’ve performed admirably as well with a 5-2 record against the spread, a 23-point average margin of victory, and no glaring statistical weaknesses. The meat of the schedule is still to come with remaining opponents combined record at 23-12 (good for 17th most difficult). We will find out how good Arizona State is.

Oregon (6-1)- Current strength of schedule is above average (Sagarin # 26). The remaining schedule is going to be a little tougher with remaining opponents holding a combined 22-12 record (good for 20th most difficult). Pass defense is potentially a concern, currently ranked at # 89.

Oklahoma (7-1) Oklahoma is being given a complete pass on their current strength of schedule. By Sagarin ratings, OU’s strength of schedule is 3rd worst in the BCS top 15 at # 83. They have a loss on the record, a 4-4 against the spread, yet are # 4 in both major polls and # 14 in the computer average. We don’t really know how good Oklahoma is and yet Don Borst is certain that OU would blow out Ohio State. Not really sure how he came to that conclusion other than likelihood that he’s a moron. The schedule gets tougher for OU with future opponents’ combined record of 16-12 (good for 42nd toughest remaining schedule). Depending on how the Sooners play down the stretch, I’m not sure we’ll know how good they really are.

West Virginia (6-1)- Current S.O.S. is average at # 56. Future schedule gets a little tougher at # 38 (combined opponent record of 19-13). Passing offense is an alarming 103rd in the country, which means that if you can shut down the running of Slaton and White, you can beat the Mountaineers. We’ll find out how good West Virginia is.

Virginia Tech (6-1)- Current S.O.S. is average at # 54. Future schedule gets much tougher at # 6 (combined opponent record of 26-10). The offense is a mess at Virginia Tech- 101st ranked pass offense and 90th ranked rush offense. We’ll find out how good Virginia Tech is.

Kansas (7-0)- Current S.O.S is nearly the easiest in D-I, ranked # 117. They’ve performed as expected against that slate with no statistical weaknesses and 6-0 against the spread (all with a grain of salt based on that S.O.S.). The future schedule gets much tougher for them with future opponents’ combined record of 19-16, good for 48th toughest schedule. I’m not sure we’ll find out how good Kansas is.

South Florida (6-1)- Current S.O.S. has been very difficult, 8th toughest according to Sagarin. South Florida has come through that stretch with one loss and a few statistical areas of concern. The schedule gets markedly easier with remaining opponents at 17-17 (good for 59th toughest remaining schedule).

You’re welcome.