Crunching the Numbers

There isn’t much sand left in the college football hourglass this year, and we’d prefer you speak intelligently during what’s left. For the second week in a row, we present to you the raw numbers for your use and consideration. Fight the good fight against anyone spewing vague and unsubstantiated comments about college football-please.

The BCS rankings are made up of 2/3rd’s human opinion and 1/3rd computer opinion. I don’t know if you’ve seen the film “I, Robot”, in case you haven’t, computers are smarter than us. In all seriousness, the reason why I trust the computers over the humans is simple- humans are unwilling to admit that they were wrong. Computers have no problem sliding one team down a spot or two from one week to the next because they don’t have feelings (read “ego”). It is a very rare occurrence for the humans to move a team down unless they lose, or they’re Hawaii.

Therefore, the average computer ranking in comparison to the overall BCS ranking sheds light on human biases present in the polls. Missouri is getting favor by the humans- ranked 6th in the ‘puters, but 3rd in both the AP and the Harris. This blogger suspects this is in part because Missouri’s only loss has come against Oklahoma, who has been getting way too much credit this year. I think part of the other benefit Missouri is getting is a bump from the Heisman machine. Without a clear Heisman frontrunner, the Heisman machine is jamming names down our throat like Chase Daniel, who at this point is probably a household name (”Honey, pass the Chase Daniel please”).

If Missouri’s getting a benefit, who’s getting the short end? Arizona State and Ohio State, that’s who. Both teams are tied with West Virginia for 3rd in the computer polls yet 7th and 5th in the AP and 6th/5th in the Harris poll.

Also getting favor (still) is Oklahoma, who is 13th in the computers but 10th in the AP and 9th in Harris, which is good for 10th in the BCS. Two-loss Texas is 17th in the computers yet 11th in Harris and 13th in the AP, good for 13th overall in the BCS. And Hawaii, yes Hawaii, is 22nd in the computers but 14th in the AP, 13th in the Harris, good for 15th in the AP. That’s borderline Notre Dame-type benefit.

The undisputed against the spread (A-T-S) champ continues to be Kansas, who is a sterling 10-0 vs. Vegas. Kansas is currently favored by 2 1/2 over Missouri, so that a-t-s streak may be coming to an end. Also good against the spread have been Missouri and Oregon (both 8-2) and Ohio State (7-4). Frustrating degenerate gamblers more than a cable outage has been Virginia Tech (5-5), LSU (4-6-1), and the aforementioned Hawaii, who despite being undefeated is 3-5 against the spread. You may be asking yourself why some of the a-t-s figures don’t total the actual number of games played- that’s because Vegas doesn’t put lines down when teams play high school opponents.

I’ve included two strength of schedule (S.O.S.) measures this week- one provided by the NCAA based on opponents’ win-loss records, and the other being Sagarin. When looking at the NCAA figures, it’s fascinating that the degree of difficulty is vast: 3-loss Florida has the 4th toughest schedule and two-loss Oregon has the 6th toughest schedule. Of the one-loss and undefeated teams, LSU has the toughest schedule, ranked 32nd, followed by Ohio State at 42nd. USC’s is 104th, undefeated Kansas’ is 105th, Hawaii comes in at 119 (out of 119 D-I teams).

By Sagarin strength of schedule, Florida once again comes out on top at 9th, followed by Oregon at 14th. Of the one-lossers, Arizona State leads the way at 26th followed by LSU at 27th and West Virginia at 42nd. On the bottom end again is Oklahoma (69th), Kansas (101st), and Hawaii (153rd). Ughhh.

Taking a gander at teams’ records vs. the Sagarin top 30, more fun facts jump off the page. Of the BCS top 15, only two teams don’t have a win or a loss over a team in the current Sagarin top 30- ironically, they’re the two teams left undefeated- Hawaii and Kansas. Well, whaddya know. Teams with better than .500 records include LSU (3-1), Missouri (2-1), Ohio State (2-1), Georgia (3-1), Oregon (3-0), Oklahoma (2-1), and Boston College (2-1). Teams at or below .500 vs. the Sagarin top 30 include West Virginia (1-1), Arizona State (1-1), Virginia Tech (2-2), USC (1-1), Florida (2-3), and Texas (1-1).

Looking at average margin of victory, only one team in the BCS top 15 is averaging more than 30 points per game in victory margin- Kansas at 31.6. Several teams are in the 20-25 point range including Oklahoma (25), Hawaii (24.5), LSU (22.1), West Virginia (21.9), and Ohio State (21.3). Keeping games a lot closer is Boston College (9.8), Georgia (10.6), and Texas (13.1).

Turnover margin continues to be a big part of the formula for some of the top teams, starting with Kansas who is # 1 in the country in turnover margin. LSU is not far behind at # 3 followed by Virginia Tech at # 8. The top 15 team struggling with turnovers surprisingly is USC who ranks 85th nationally followed by Texas at # 71.

Hawaii leads the top 15 in most offensive categories, despite hardly rushing the ball at all. Hawaii ranks 1st in scoring, 2nd in pass offense, 2nd in total offense, but 115th in rushing offense. Another team that is getting it done throwing the mail instead of carrying it is Boston College who ranks 7th in pass offense but 104th in rushing. West Virginia gets it done exactly the opposite way- 14th ranked overall offense, 3rd ranked rushing offense but 107th passing O.

The most balanced team (statistically) in the top 15 is Kansas- ranking 15th in rushing, 16th in passing, and 2nd in scoring. Most balanced after Kansas would have to be Missouri who is 5th in passing, 37th in rushing, and 6th in scoring. Texas, Florida, and Oklahoma are all also getting good production from both the run and the pass.

Several teams are getting tremendous efficiency out of their passing game as well- six of the top ten pass efficiency teams are in the BCS top 15- Florida (# 1), Oklahoma (# 2), Hawaii (# 3), Kansas (# 6), Missouri (# 8), and Arizona State (# 9). On the wrong end of passing efficiency is Georgia (# 56), USC (# 54), and Virginia Tech (# 52).

On the defensive side, Ohio State continues to hold a commanding statistical advantage over nearly all other teams in the top 15. Ohio State is # 1 in scoring defense, # 1 in pass defense, # 1 in total defense, and # 3 in rush defense. Ohio State also leads the top 15 in sacks with 42, six more than the next closest- Virginia Tech. The second best defense statistically goes to LSU who is 9th in scoring, 9th against the pass, 4th against the run, and 2nd overall. LSU also has 32 sacks on the season. Third place defense goes to USC who is 6th in scoring, 5th against the pass, 10th against the rush, and 3rd in yardage overall.

Statistical evidence shows that Florida is getting torched by the deep ball- they’re 40th in yards per game and 14th against the rush, but 94th against the pass and 49th in scoring.

Also struggling somewhat on defense is Missouri who is 33rd in scoring defense and 25th against the rush, but 96th against the pass.

Other teams getting gouged by the pass are Texas (103rd), Oregon (104th), and Boston College (108th).

Not surprisingly some of the teams worst against the pass are also worst in the sack department confirming that they’re not getting pressure on the opposing quarterback. Kansas is worst in the top 15 in sacks (19) but is still managing a respectable 41st against the pass. Boston College only has 20 sacks and are 108th against the pass. Texas has 21 sacks and is 103rd against the pass. Florida only has 23 sacks and is 94th against the pass. How’s that for a correlation?

The most telling defensive statistic of all is rush defense- no team in the BCS top 15 is ranked worse than 36th (Oregon is # 36). That makes it pretty clear that of all the statistical categories, stopping the run correlates most directly to the success of a team. Ten of the best fifteen teams against the run are in the BCS top 15.

In the special teams category, there are just a few numbers that stand out. First is that Arizona State is converting 95% on field goals and West Virginia isn’t far behind converting nearly 91%. On the flip side is Boston College who is only converting 71.4%.

In punting, Florida is tops in the top fifteen at 10th nationally. BC is not far behind at 15th, as is Georgia at 20th. Four teams are struggling mightily in net punting- USC (100th), Kansas (101st), Hawaii (107th), and Missouri who is dead last at 119th.

Virginia Tech (114th) is struggling in kickoff returns as is Ohio State (117th). In punt returns, Boston College (113th), LSU (104th), and Kansas (102nd) are all struggling.

You’re welcome.