Saturday Prep: Very Little Useful Information

I meant to get this post up on Friday morning but I was slightly “detained”, what with all the post-Thanksgiving shopping. Without going into details, let’s just say the detainment involved a shopping basket, an HD DVD player, and some punk who doesn’t think line rules apply to him. Without further ado…

The weather:

USC -v- Arizona State
The post-mortem on the Sun Devils beat down at the hands of the Trojans is an ugly report. Upon further review, the Sun Devils are a perfect microcosm of what college football is this year. ASU had risen to 7th in the AP, 6th in the Harris, and 6th in the BCS. Coming into this game, ASU had wins over San Jose State, Colorado, San Diego State, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington State, Washington, Cal, and UCLA. Good for the 26th toughest strength of schedule according to Sagarin but not impressive by the “historical name” test.

Statistically, Arizona State ranked in the top half of nearly every key statistic, but they had one big flaw that was exploited by USC Thursday night, and in a big way. The Sun Devils are the worst team in protecting the Quarterback among the top ten teams, and it showed against USC to the tune of six sacks.

USC got pressure on Rudy Carpenter all night long and along the way, they also completely shut down the run, holding ASU to 16 net yards on 35 carries. Carpenter still performed admirably throwing 21/30 for 240 yards, but one-dimensional offense against a good team equals a loss almost every time. Now USC just needs a win over UCLA and an Oregon loss (two chances for that) and USC will be headed to the Rose Bowl in a next-season-preview of their match up with Ohio State. USC and Ohio State have a home and home the next two years, which would make their match up in the Rose Bowl even more special than it normally would be.

Ar-Kansas -v- LSU
I think we’re officially past the equilibrium point where now upsets no longer feel like upsets. LSU was a 13.5 point favorite at home to Arkansas, and yet soccer moms making small talk at the grocery check-out lane yesterday probably dropped a “I don’t Madge…LSU might lose Friday; that Darren McFadden is something else” comment. If ever there were a year for an 8-team playoff, this would be it. Forget about two undefeated teams at the end of the year. It’s completely plausible that there could only be one one-loss team and a host of two-lossers at the end of the season. And no two-loss team has ever played in the BCS National Championship. If Kansas loses to Missouri, Missouri loses to Oklahoma, and West Virginia loses to…itself, which two loss team does Ohio State play in the national championship? For all of the BCS apologists that always say “it’ll work out by the end of the season”, I hope it doesn’t.

Back to Arkansas/LSU- was it the distraction of Les Miles potentially going to Michigan? Was it the pressure of being #1 that got to LSU? Only the players can answer that question. No matter, giving up 385 yards on the ground to Arkansas simply isn’t going to get it done. Arkansas is one of the very best rushing teams in the country, but don’t make excuses- Arkansas rushed for almost 100 yards more than their per game average against LSU. Worse still, Razorback QB Casey Dick only passed for 94 yards on 10/18 attempts, yet LSU still couldn’t stop the run.

That’s the anatomy of an upset. The favored team has an off-game and loses. The underdog isn’t good enough to be consistently good, but good enough to play like a champion for one game. It’s not a new formula but the frequency of its occurrence in 2007 is surprising. There will still be some people nationally that will argue that a two-loss SEC team still deserves to be in the National Championship. Save your breath and instead argue for a playoff. That’s what we really need.

Tennessee -v- Kentucky
Tennessee is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get until Coach Fulmer bites into each one. Beat South Carolina by 3 points. Blow out Arkansas by 21. Squeak by Vanderbilt by 1. Welcome to Volunteer football. Kentucky is 7-4 and 3-4 in the SEC East; Tennessee is playing for the SEC East title and a chance to play in the SEC Championship game. Kentucky is favored by 2.5. I like UK to not only cover but win.

Connecticut -v- West Virginia
Think Connecticut is a quality team and should count as a “quality” win should West Virginia win Saturday? Vegas sure doesn’t. West Virginia is an 18.5 point favorite. Yeah- how’s that for a potential “quality” win. Of WVU’s two remaining games, this one will be the “tougher” one given that they’ll probably be an even bigger favorite vs. Pittsburgh next week. Connecticut hasn’t played anyone the caliber of West Virginia this year (wins over Duke, Maine, Temple, Pittsburgh, Akron, Louisville, South Florida, Rutgers, Syracuse) and they already have losses to 9-2 Virginia and 8-3 Cincinnati. I’d like to think Connecticut can cover the 18.5 points here but considering they already lost by 24 to Cincy, I don’t see any reason to think this game is going to be close. Turnovers will be Uconn’s only salvation, otherwise, it’s going to be ugly.

Georgia -v- Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech has been the same inconsistent anomaly this year, but without Reggie Ball to blame. Talk about frustration. Maybe Ty Willingham can be implicated somehow. The mission is easy for Georgia- win + UT loss = SEC Championship game. Georgia’s average margin of victory this year has been 10.6 points which is why they’re only favored by 3.5 over a 7-4 Georgia Tech team. Mark Richt has had just enough crazy to keep Georgia rolling, but one has to wonder if a collapse is around the corner. GT is coming off a 2-point win at home to North Carolina which feels more like a loss.

The only wild card here is GT Senior RB Tashard Choice- Choice has put together a nice year gaining nearly 1,200 yards without a fumble and is getting 5.3 yards per carry. Georgia has a good rush defense but if Choice can have some success and continues to take care of the football, the Yellow Jackets have a chance. On the flip side, Georgia Tech has the 9th ranked rush defense, which means if they can force Georgia to pass, it’s Matthew Stafford time. Stafford is having a better year than he had last year, but has thrown 4 TD’s and 4 INT’s in his last three games. Add to that the fact that Georgia Tech leads the country in sacks (46) and that equals my “walk of shame pick of the week”. I like Georgia Tech to at least cover and possibly win.

Oregon -v- UCLA
Oregon minus Dennis Dixon is like a Hummer with four spare tires- much less intimidating and even worse gas mileage. Oregon has sustained so heavy injuries this year and it’s finally caught up with them. Oregon is going to lose at least one of their last two games- either this one or next week against Oregon State. Take your pick. Oregon is favored by 1 point this year. That means Dennis Dixon is worth at least 21 points because if he were able to play, the line would be 22+.

Missouri -v- Kansas
Everybody knows what’s at stake here- the winner goes on to play Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship game and “controls their destiny” regarding a path to the national championship. Kansas is favored by 1.5 which means it’s basically a pick ‘em. I’ve given you oodles of statistics on both these teams leading up to this game, but sometimes you just have to go with your turkey-filled gut. And my turkey-filled gut says Missouri. I like Missouri for two reasons- first, they’ve been tested. They’ve beaten Illinois, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and lost to Oklahoma. The only test Kansas has gotten was at A&M where they won by 8 points. That doesn’t mean Kansas isn’t a good team, but in such a high profile game like this, that give a decided advantage to Missouri.

Also, I like the edge in sacks. Missouri leads Kansas in sacks 25-19 and also leads in sacks against 16-20 which means Missouri should be able to get more pressure on KU and conversely protect Chase Daniel. Missouri has a bad pass defense which means if they don’t get heavy pressure Todd Reesing, they will pay. Both teams bad punt teams but great kickoff returns which means special teams could be verrrry interesting.

I like Missouri to win and move on for a re-match with Oklahoma.

You’re welcome.