LSU vs. OSU

January 4th, 2008 by Red Renee

Over the last couple weeks, we’ve given you several mythbusting posts as a tease to the National Championship. Just so you don’t have to go back through and find each one, here’s a recap.

Myth # 1: Speed Advantage

This took a little while to do, but we were curious about the average 40 yard dash time for both OSU and LSU. We used only scholarship players from each team, not including kickers, punters, or LS/SS’s. We used several recruiting databases, and for the most part there was very little discrepancy in the times. If one site reported the lowest time for a given player on either team, then we went with the lowest time.

LSU’s average 40 time: 4.756

OSU’s average 40 time: 4.685

That’s a difference of 0.0712, or seven hundredths of one second. Take that for whatever it’s worth, which isn’t much if you ask us. Take a stop watch and try to hit start, then stop with only .07 of a second elapsing or less; good luck.

And if anything, this supports an OSU speed advantage vs. LSU, not the other way around. SEC apologists usually don’t let the facts stand in the way of their arguments, so we doubt something like this will matter much. Who knows, maybe LSU puts on new shoes every quarter…after all, everybody knows, new shoes are faster…

Myth # 2: History Advantage

One of the frequently repeated stats when discussing the National Championship is that Ohio State is 0-8 historically against the SEC in bowl games. That might be a useful piece of information if the National Championship game were to be played by the best players in Ohio State history vs. the best players in SEC history. Obviously, that’s not the case.

We find this kind of random, one-sided reporting at a minimum lazy, but mostly irresponsible. Historical records are just that- history. Different players, different coaches, different eras.

If you find Ohio State’s 0-8 record vs. the SEC particularly relevant than consider this: overall including bowl games, Ohio State is 7-9-2 against the SEC. Hardly convincing. Also consider this- in games against teams ranked # 1, LSU is 1-7-1. That’s right- one win, seven losses, and one tie.

Myth # 3: Talent Advantage

If the Pro Bowl represents the best of the NFL (or at least the most popular players), than what better way to get a glimpse at how the conferences have matriculated to the rosters. We broke the Pro Bowl rosters down (including alternates) by player and then categorized by where each player went to school and then by conference. One quick pivot table later and here’s how the rosters break down:

ACC- 15 players
SEC- 13 players
Big Ten- 12 players
Big 12- 10 players
Pac-10- 9 players
Other- 9 players

As you can see above, the ACC, not the SEC leads the way in landing fifteen players. The SEC and Big Ten are a close second and third with other conferences trailing. So once again, the hard data does not at all support the idea that the SEC is and has been the superior conference in college football. None of this matters of course, because people will believe what they’re told, whether or not there’s any truth involved.

Myth # 4: The Buckeyes Were Better Last Year

Most people assume that last year’s Ohio State team was better than this year’s, and why not with eight players drafted into the NFL including two first-rounders and the Heisman Trophy winner. But a closer look at the numbers provide a different story:

In scoring offense, the 2006 Buckeyes were more productive than this year’s to the tune of 3 points (35 ppg vs. 32 ppg). However, the ‘07 OSU team actually has a higher total yards per game average (397 vs. 385). I think this is mostly due to the fact that the ‘06 defense produced more turnovers, thus shorter fields yielding fewer yards to gain on offense and more points.

It’s interesting to note that QB completion percentage is identical (65%) from last year to this year, though Troy Smith averaged more passing yards than Boeckman has. On the flip side, the ground game has been much more productive this year (201 ypg vs. 170 ypg).

Regarding quality of offensive line play, the ‘07 Buckeyes get the edge, just slightly. The ‘06 Buckeyes gave up 19 sacks but 6 of those came in the National Championship game, so they had 13 allowed coming in to the NC. The 2007 Buckeyes have also only given up 13 sacks heading into the National Championship game. I give the edge slightly to 2007 because Todd Boeckman is a lot less mobile than Troy Smith was, thus less escapability.

Even the thought of the 2007 offense being similar to the 2006 version is remarkable when you consider that six of Ohio State’s eight players drafted last year were on the offensive side of the ball.

Edge: Push

Defensively, the 2007 team is superior in every major statistical category- Scoring defense- 10.7 points per game vs. 12.8; Sacks- 42 vs. 38; Tackles for a loss- 100 vs. 93; rushing defense- 77 ypg allowed vs. 98; pass defense- 148 ypg vs. 182; even pass efficiency defense was better this year- 94 QB ratings vs. 104.

Edge: 2007 Ohio State

Overall, at least statistically, the 2007 Buckeyes are actually better than the team that steam-rolled through the 2006 regular season and then got whitewashed by Florida. Good news for this year’s Buckeye fans who still have nightmares of the Florida pass rush last year. And now you can confidently respond to anyone who says that OSU was a better team last year than they are this year.

Finally, here’s how the matchup Monday night looks on paper:

By the numbers, these teams are very evenly matched. OSU has a better defense and LSU has a better offense (at least statistically). If there are advantages to be had- it’s definitely in takeaways. LSU is + 18 for turnover margin on the season while Ohio State is -1. If LSU wins the turnover margin Monday night, the game will go their way.

I’m not nearly smart enough to be able to tell you what’s going to happen in the game, but I am looking forward to several things. Firstly, Ohio State will try and establish the run, the biggest question of the game is can they. Jim Tressel learned last year that the best way to attack a speed rush from the D-Line is to run right at it. The Buckeyes will try and do that and it will be interesting to see if they can be successful doing it.

Secondly, LSU is clearly going to find some way to work both Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux materially into the game. Both Flynn and Perrilloux are somewhat mobile which for some reason makes them a spread offense attack according to most pundits. For LSU, Perrilloux playing and winning the SEC Championship game is a big plus. It will be interesting to see though if Les Miles will be able to effectively manage both players should one of them hit a few bumps. His decision-making has been questionable at times this year and mis-managing a dual-quarterback situation can bring trouble.

Thirdly, the coaching variable will be a something to watch. LSU Defensive Coordinator Bo Pelini has one foot out the door while he sets up his program at Nebraska. There’s no way to tell whether he will have his head totally in the game or whether his mind and focus will be divided.

In the end, I like Ohio State to win- simply because of emotion. Having a chip on your shoulder and being told you’re an overwhelming underdog matters in sports- and it especially matters in college sports. As has been reported, Jim Tressel sent a DVD home with his players before they left for Christmas- a DVD showing clips of all the pundits telling them they don’t belong. Somebody put the first few minutes of this video up on Youtube: