Breaking down the BCS

The first edition of the BCS came out Sunday evening with little discrepancy about the top two, but plenty of crap after that.

Discrepancies start as early as # 3 Penn State who is 3rd in both human polls but 7th in the computers. It’s safe to assume that this discrepancy will be fully resolved after this weekend when Penn State travels to Ohio State.

USC is surprisingly low in the computers, with an average of 10th vs. their human ranking of 4th/5th. Particularly in the polls that don’t factor margin of victory and factor conference strength (or lack thereof), USC is not as impressive as voters think they are. This is definitely something to watch considering what little competition USC has remaining should three teams end the season with one loss.

Oklahoma State is not getting human love in the eyes of the computers. The Cowboys are 3rd in the computers but 8th in both human polls. Even more interesting, Oklahoma State is the highest ranked Big XII team in the computers after Texas, but the humans have the Cowboys behind both Oklahoma and Texas Tech.

On the flip side of that Big XII paradox is Texas Tech who is 6th/7th by the humans, but 11th in the computers.

Not surprisingly, Ohio State is getting some “accrued negative bias” after the last two years. Their computer average is 5th yet both human polls have them at 10th for a BCS “average” of 9th overall. Reiterating the Penn State comment above, it’s safe to say this will be sorted out after this coming weekend.

On the flip side of that bias is the Florida Gators who are getting plenty of love from SEC loving voters. U of F is 6th in Harris, 7th in USA Today but a stunning 12th in the computers. That begs for an analysis of how good Florida really is based on their body of work and not their reputation.

Also getting a healthy SEC bump is LSU. Les Miles’ crew is 11th in both human polls but a staggering 19th in the computer polls. Again- under no circumstances should there be that wide of a spread between the two.

Finally, South Florida is also getting a surprising bump in the polls. The Bulls are 14th in both human polls but 23rd in the computer polls. Funny enough too, South Florida is one spot ahead of a team they lost to at home (Pittsburgh) just two weeks ago).

You’re welcome.