Who’s driving this fricking thing?
Along the path of premature speculation (which is never a good idea) and with the first BCS poll out, it’s time to take an early look at who’s got what left and who’s likely to be in the BCS championship at the end of the season. This isn’t an effort to predict the exact final order, rather an attempt to look at remaining schedules and current positions.
As the cliché goes, Texas and Alabama are in the driver seat (Alabama is on Texas’ lap) for the championship. Should both win out, they’re in, it’s that simple. Simple except that both of them aren’t going to win out, and neither might. Stepping aside from this point, let’s take a look at who’s got the easiest remaining schedule.
# 5 USC. The Trojans don’t have a ranked team left and the combined record of their remaining opponents is 20-20 (good for vision, bad for ‘puters). No non-conference championship game also makes it an easy road.
The PAC-10 has been a colossal disappointment this year and that could very well cost USC a chance at the BCS Championship (still be alive for the AP title). USC is currently 10th in the computers and that stands to get worse, not better. For the Trojans to make it to the title game, they need 3 of the 4 teams ahead of them to lose, and probably all four just to be safe. It’s highly possible that should # 6 Georgia win out (they won’t), they’ll jump USC. They also need Ohio State to win out. If the Buckeyes lose to Penn State this weekend and/or Illinois down the road, the Trojans sole “quality win” evaporates into thin air. They could conceivably be 15th or lower in the computer polls by the end of the season. Still, USC will win their remaining games so expect them to be in the discussion at the end of the season.
# 3 Penn State. PSU has the second easiest path on three fronts- first, they’ve only got four games left vs. five or six for other teams. Second, the only real test they have left is the night road game at Ohio State this weekend. Third, and like USC, no conference championship game to contend with.
A road game at Iowa plus finishing at home with Indiana and Michigan State should be easy wins (based on past performance anyways). The Nits are 7th in the computers so they’re not going to jump Texas or Alabama. So in order for them to reach the title game, they’re going to need either Texas or Alabama to lose and probably will need Oklahoma with another loss to keep from getting jumped by them.
After USC and Penn State, the schedules are markedly more difficult.
Third easiest path has to go to…(gulp)…# 9 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are going to have to overcome a huge bias in the media in order to make it to the title game, which isn’t likely to happen. Consider that the toughest game left on the schedule for Ohio State is Penn State at home this week. After that, they’ve got an improved Northwestern team and a declining Illinois team, both on the road, before finishing at home with abysmal Michigan.
The good news for the Buckeyes is that the computers love them- 5th overall. The bad news is because of the aforementioned media bias, the Buckeyes aren’t getting in ahead of a one-loss Texas, Oklahoma, or a two-loss Alabama, Georgia, or Florida.
Next in line has to be # 2 Alabama. A road game at # 13 LSU stands alone in a list of final competitors that have a combined record of 18-16. The Crimson Tide will also have to beat either Georgia or Florida in the SEC Championship game. Florida has some questions and ‘Bama’s already beaten Georgia handily, so that game should be too scary. The risk for Alabama is they’re a very young team and it’s quite likely they’ll have a letdown at some point, perhaps even this week @ Tennessee where Phil Fulmer is fighting for his job. Plus Alabama’s DT Terrence Cody will be out with an ankle injury.
# 10 Florida has a slate full of teams with winning records, with the exception of 3-4 Citadel. Road games at Georgia and Florida State, plus either Alabama or LSU in the SEC Championship game should they be fortunate enough to get there.
# 4 Oklahoma has a pretty easy path with their toughest games (Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State) at the end of the schedule. By then Texas Tech should be a shell of what they are now and Oklahoma State will likely have a loss already to Texas. The problem that OU has is that they need Texas to lose two conference games in order to get to the Big XII championship game, plus they need to beat Oklahoma State. They’ve certainly got the team to do it, but hard to imagine Texas losing and letting them in.
# 13 LSU also is looking pretty good. Sure they’ve got Georgia and Alabama on the schedule still, but both of those games are at home. Besides those two, Tulane, Troy, Mississippi, and Arkansas also remain (12-14 combined record). Assuming the Tigers run that schedule down, they’ll have Georgia or Florida in the SEC Championship game.
In terms of getting back to the BCS Championship game, LSU’s got an uphill battle. Their computer ranking of 19th will definitely improve if they can beat Georgia, ‘Bama, and Georgia/Florida, but I don’t think they’re getting the kind of quarterback play they need to get it done.
# 7 Georgia has a road trip to LSU, a home date with Florida, home with rival Georgia Tech at the end of the season, plus either Alabama or LSU in the SEC title game should they get that far. With the Bulldogs’ recent performance, it’s hard to believe they’ll get that far.
# 1 Texas has undefeated Oklahoma State at home this weekend followed by road games at Texas Tech and Kansas, sprinkled with Baylor and Texas A&M at home. After that they’ll have to beat either Kansas (again) or Missouri (again) in the Big XII Championship game. The Longhorns have certainly shown that if any team is going undefeated this season, it’s them. Still, it’s going to be tough.
# 6 Oklahoma State has the toughest path with #1 Texas this week on the road, plus a road game at Texas Tech and the finale at home against Oklahoma. If they survive that, they’ll have to get through either Kansas or Missouri in the Big XII title game. Pretty big long shot given the Cowboys’ defense.
You’re welcome.
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