Ten Questions I Can’t Wait to be Answered Saturday

The stakes are getting bigger and there’s also reliable statistical data so we’re adding match up stats for most of the key weekend games.

1.) Can Texas Tech keep hope alive against Kansas? This game is a mirror exercise- Texas Tech has the best pass offense in the country; Kansas isn’t far behind. Texas Tech nearly has the worst pass defense in the country; Kansas isn’t much ahead. The over and under on this game is 67 and I say take the over. If I had any money left in my 401k, I’d sink it in the over. I’m not saying Texas Tech isn’t any good, I’m just saying they’ve beaten nobody. And I think the ride ends for the Red Raiders.

2.) How much is Oklahoma going to beat Kansas State by- 20 or 30? The line is 18 but I’m going with 30+. The Sooners only beat Kansas by 24 last week but Kansas has a better defense than KSU. Plus, Oklahoma has an inferiority complex and too many other Big XII teams have been getting attention.

3.) Will Kentucky make it interesting @ Florida? In a word- no. Kentucky at full strength could have made for a very good game, but no running back and multiple losses on defense have left the Wildcats a shell of their former cat-ness.

4.) Who will be left standing between Georgia and LSU? One of them will have two losses which (barring insanity) leaves them out of the national title picture. Both teams are coming off underwhelming wins, and neither looks to be what most people expected of them. The game is at LSU so that’s an obvious advantage for the Tigers, but not enough of one.

Georgia simply has too great an advantage at Quarterback for me to pick LSU. I’ve been hard on Georgia QB Matthew Stafford frequently in the past, and though he’s still prone to throw too many interceptions, he’s far better than the options at LSU. Plus, the play-action with Knowshon Moreno will be enough to keep that ferocious LSU pass rush off-balance.

There are rare occasions when teams play two quarterbacks because they complement each other and provide match up problems for the opposition. The other scenario is that a coach plays two quarterbacks hoping that the sum of their parts will equal one decent quarterback (it doesn’t, I checked the math). LSU suffers from the latter, and I’m going to stop there because that’s the nicest thing I can say about Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch.

It would have been interesting to see what this LSU could have done with Ryan Perriloux at Quarterback. He should have been kicked off the team prior to the National Championship game though so at least Les Miles got a ring for his troubles.

5.) Has Tennessee quite on Phil Fulmer? Alabama has been playing with fire this year and they travel to Knoxville to play a Tennessee team that has been battered and bruised this year. Tennessee has a very solid defense but their offense has been surprisingly anemic, including a pretty poor running game. RB Arian Foster has yet to really get on track, and that’s after nearly 1,200 yards last season. It’s mostly because the Volunteers have been playing catch up so often this year, but they must keep the game close so they can keep running the football. I also think Alabama QB John Parker Wilson is due for a bad game. He’s thrown double digit interceptions each of the last two years but only has three this year. Most of that success is because Julio Jones is a freak and can catch anything within two zip codes of him. Nonetheless, I expect Wilson to struggle a bit today and for the Volunteers to sack up and win.

6.) Can Michigan State finally beat their big brother Michigan? If ever there was a year, this is the year. Michigan is 2-5. Michigan State is 6-2 but is coming off an emotional crushing at Ohio State last week. Michigan State is favored by 4 so it’s not an upset, but I like the Spartans to finally get a win (six straight losses) in Ann Arbor.

7.) Will Arizona stay with USC? USC knows they have to win with style in their remaining games, but they’ve got a tricky road game against a good (albeit unranked) Wildcat team. I’ll be pulling for Arizona to pull off the upset and put a bullet in the Pac-10 once and for all, but I don’t think USC is going to get Jacquizzed again.

8.) Will Wisconsin salvage their disaster of a season when Illinois comes calling today? Not bloody likely. Wisconsin is one-dimensional on offense which is why they’re 0-4 in conference play. Illinois QB Juice Williams is showing his mid-season form, only throwing one interception in the last three games. Illinois is below average against the run but Wisconsin is going to need some plays in the passing game in order to win.

9.) Can Oklahoma State upset Texas? They can but they won’t. Oklahoma State is a quality team but save for the 5-point win over Missouri, they haven’t beaten anybody. Texas looks to be on a mission, and that mission includes beating the Cowboys at home this afternoon.

10.) Who’s going to be left standing in the Big Ten? Penn State has been the most consistent and dominant team this year. The grain of salt that that fact has to be taken with is that Penn State has played the 100th ranked schedule (according to Sagarin). Darryll Clark hasn’t really been challenged this year, only getting sacked six times and throwing two interceptions. PSU hasn’t played a defense anywhere near the caliber of Ohio State so they will definitely be challenged tonight.

Here’s a statistical nugget for you- PSU’s Derrick Williams gets all the press as the dangerous punt return man in this match up but did you know, Derrick Williams ranks 35th nationally behind Ohio State’s Ray Small at 17th for punt returns (14 yards per return for Small compared with 10.3 per return for Williams). So when analysts and TV types are hyping Williams today, know that statistically, Small is a better returner.

The stakes are high- if Penn State wins they’re coasting into the National Championship game. Also relevant is that I suspect Penn State is playing for their legendary coach JoePa and what could (likely will be?) his final season as head coach.

If Ohio State loses, the hopes for a third straight conference title are over. Not only that, but the last thread of their national reputation is on the line. With high consecutive high profile losses against Florida, LSU, and USC, this is likely the last opportunity for Ohio State to prove not only that they are nationally relevant, but that they should be. Ohio State has been good the last two weeks but too inconsistent this season for me to have any level of comfort about the outcome.

The bottom line for this game, as has been the case for the Buckeyes all season, is that turnovers will determine the outcome. Ohio State is # 1 in the country in turnovers gained and # 4 in turnover margin. Penn State has turned the ball over only 8 times; Ohio State only 9. If Ohio State can get the turnovers, they win. It’s as simple as that.

Ohio State has obviously not played well in litmus test games in recent history, but I think they’re going to put it together tonight and beat Penn State in a very close game, possibly even in overtime.

You’re welcome.