No seriously. Ok, “fear” is a little strong. Maybe “don’t laugh at first mention” for the Big Ten. The national reputation of the Big Ten this year is somewhere between Paris Hilton and Russell Crowe, and not without reason.
Anytime a conference has most or all of their traditional powers down, the rep is going to take some lumps nationally. And with Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan a collective 11-16 (5-12 in the conference), that is definitely the case for the Big Ten. The flipside that everyone is missing though is that with the decline of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan has come a resurgence at Michigan State, Penn State, Minnesota, and Northwestern. Whether or not that resurgence is sustainable remains to be seen, but for now suspend any disbelief and assume that to be the case.
Easier to assume is that Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan will rebound.
No matter what you think of Juice Williams and Ron Zook, Illinois has players. They’re underachieving this year but as long as Zook continues to recruit the way he has, he’s at least within range of 8 or 9 wins every year.
The Badgers are obviously going through a transition post Barry Alvarez. Some chinks in the armor have appeared for Bret Bielema and who knows if those will lead to the armor falling off and Bret standing on the sideline naked (deleted). Wisconsin also has dealt this year with the fact that a veteran quarterback, even a crappy Wisconsin veteran quarterback, is necessary to win in the Big Ten. Allan Evridge unfortunately is not that crappy veteran Badger QB that they need.
Then there’s Michigan. Cute, sweet, Wolverines. Despite my hate for Michigan, I have respect for the program- the tradition and the history. But sweet Jesus- that’s an awful football team. They’re obviously suffering from a gross absence of talent this year plus the lumps D-Rod is taking adjusting to the Big Ten. Don’t you think in the quiet moments at night when Rodriguez is tucking himself in for the night that he’s double-taking on what the Big Ten really is like vs. what he thought it would be like coming from the Big East? I sure do. Still, Rodriguez will find success once he gets some D-I players into that program.
So, if you assume Illinois will hover on the high side of mediocrity, that Wisconsin will find a QB next year, and that eventually RichRod will get Michigan going again, plus Mark Dantonio will keep Sparty competitive, that Tom Bradley will keep Penn State going after Joepa retires/retires from this planet, and that either Tim Brewster will make Minnesota look more like year two under him than year one, or that Pat Fitzgerald has finally figured out how to win at Northwestern, that’s a pretty good conference. Forget pretty good, that’s a very good conference. Ohio State (I assumed they will still be good- how arrogant of me), Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota and/or Northwestern. That’s a conference that would go seven teams deep in the quality department which is easily as good as the SEC or the Big XII are this year.
Another variable to consider is quarterback play. The Big XII clearly is benefiting from top tier veteran QB play this year. More so than any other conference in a long time. That and the fact that the big conference games are all back-loaded in the schedules. When those QB’s are gone, the cycle may move (back) to average for the Big XII.
Both Graham Harrell and Chase Daniel are seniors. That matters less for Texas Tech where QB’s are plug ‘n play, but that all changes if Mike Leach leaves for greener pastures. Missouri is going to sustain big losses this year and will be a shell next year. Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson, and Todd Reesing are all Juniors. I doubt any of them will leave early (McCoy already said he’s coming back), but if they do take off that’s another hit to the conference.
Quality quarterback play in the SEC is like good Chinese food- it’s out there but you’ve got to know where to find it. The list in the SEC goes three deep and one of those three- John Parker Wilson- is a senior. Matthew Stafford and Tim Tebow are both Juniors so we’ll have to wait and see what they decide for next year.
In that same light, Curtis Painter and C.J. Bacher are both Seniors. Painter has done a lot for Purdue but they might be best served with a fresh start next year. Bacher has been the starter at Northwestern since ‘nam but the backup Mike Kafka is only a Junior and has proven to be at least serviceable. Brian Hoyer is a Senior at Michigan State but Freshman Kirk Cousins can at least fill in, possibly improve. The bigger loss for MSU is everything back Javon Ringer.
Looking at the rest of the Big Ten, Darryll Clark and Juice Williams are both Juniors. Never say never, but I doubt either of these guys will come out early.
If you put all that together, it says the Big Ten is building for an improved 2009. I sure hope so- I don’t know if I want to see another 2008.
You’re welcome.
