Picking up the Scarlet and Gray Pieces

The story of the 2008 Ohio State season can be summed up with three figures: 72nd, 95th, and 1 to 1.

This comes as no surprise to those of you that have watched the Buckeyes closely this year, but the Buckeyes suck in the red zone. They’re good in the Tressel sense- 9th in the nation in scoring percentage (92% conversion), meaning they don’t go scoreless. But to be a dominant and premier team nationally, you have to score touchdowns in the red zone- and that’s where the Buckeyes have failed miserably this year.

The Buckeyes’ red zone performance consists of 12 touchdowns and 12 field goals, for a 1 to 1 touchdown-to-field goal ratio. To compare that metric to the teams ranked above them in the BCS, the only team close is Alabama with roughly a 2 to 1 ratio (21 TD’s, 9 FG’s). After Alabama, it’s just plain silly as you see in the table below. Silliest of all is Oklahoma who has a 15 to 1 ratio (46 touchdowns to 3 field goals).

With an All-American at running back, quality wide receivers, and at least a little talent on the O-line, these red zone numbers are completely unacceptable. In fact, there’s too much talent here to pin this lack of production on the players. Instead, the coaches have to take the brunt of blame- and specifically the head coach.

This is the area of the field where Tressel’s conservatism really ramps up (or down as it were). Tressel’s mantra of play good defense and mistake-free offense is a formula that works if the goal is to challenge for conference championships. In order to win national championships, this team has to take more chances on offense and be more aggressive in the red zone (2002 being the obvious exception).

The second figure is 72nd: Ohio State ranks 72nd nationally in sacks with 15 total (1.67 per game). Compared to the teams ahead of the Buckeyes in the BCS, Ohio State ranks second to last in this category, ahead of Oklahoma State at 1.22 per game and behind Utah at 1.89 per game. There were questions about the defensive line this year following the departure of sack machine Vernon Gholston (14 sacks all by himself last year), but expectations were higher than were they’ve performed. Lawrence Wilson having his season cut short again doesn’t help, but it’s appropriate for a serious evaluation of the line play at the end of the season. This also brings me to…

The third figure is 95th: Ohio State ranks 95th nationally in sacks allowed (22 sacks given up or 2.44 per game). For comparison sake, Texas is 63rd with 1.89 sacks allowed per game. Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Penn State are all giving up less than one sack per game. The Buckeyes’ total has to be tempered by four or five unnecessary sacks taken by TP, but still ugly. If the line can’t pass protect, the team isn’t going to win big games.

All three of these statistics point to not only a personnel issue but more importantly, a program issue. Both lines need to be reevaluated at the end of the season. It’s not going to be an easy fix- the problem is multi-faceted between player selection, schemes, and player development. Tressel is going to need to make some changes- specifically, he’s going to need to shake up the Tressel-Bollman-Daniels offensive team somehow- either restructure responsibilities or make a more drastic move. If they’re selecting the right players, they’re not developing like they should so that needs to be addressed. If they’re missing on players recruiting-wise, they need to evaluate their recruiting principles. No matter what, change must happen for this team to get better.

Knowing that Tressel has education in his blood, he’ll probably be the person most critical of the ‘08 performance, and hopefully he’ll come to the right conclusions about what needs to be done. But for this season, it’s a story of what could have been, and evidence of how rare trips to the championship are. Buckeyes fans took for granted the return trip last year, but have been given a good dose of perspective this year.