Be Careful What You Wish For

Should Ohio State get a BCS nod when bowls are announced Sunday, and it looks like they will, their likely opponent as of today would be Texas. That in and of itself presents significant challenges but also has larger ramifications on the Big Ten as a whole.

For Ohio State, the national reputation is somewhere between Paris Hilton and Paula Abdul these days (you decide which is worse). With consecutive losses in the national championship game and a high profile loss to USC this year, the Buckeyes need some redemption in their bowl game to repair their rep. Incidentally, it’s funny how reputations work- Oklahoma has lost consecutive Fiesta Bowls and four of their last five bowl games and yet they still walk on water. But I digress…

There are a few teams Ohio State doesn’t want to play in a bowl game, and Texas is one of them. Texas has a Heisman-caliber quarterback, veteran line and wide receivers, run-stopping defense, and a secondary that’s questionable but won’t be tested. Add to that the outside shot for Texas to get the AP national championship and that’s a recipe for another unhappy Columbus winter.

Worse than that are the potential implications for the entire Big Ten. Ohio State into the BCS moves each Big Ten team up a bowl and that doesn’t look like it’s going to end well. Obviously subject to change but for your consideration are the Big Ten bowl pairings with Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.

By my estimation the Big Ten will likely go 0-5 with 2 “push” games. That means 2-5 or 3-4 is best case scenario; it could be as bad as 0-7. Even the most ardent Big Ten supporter would have to agree that the conference would be underdogs according to Vegas in most of those matchups.

Now consider what would happen if Ohio State didn’t make the BCS and instead played Georgia in the Citrus Bowl (Capital One Bowl):

In this scenario I think the Big Ten would be looking at 1-3 with 3 pushes. I know that doesn’t sound great, but I’m looking for baby steps here. That at least leaves the possibility of a 4-3 or dare I say 5 wins and 2 losses.

I also like a potential matchup with Georgia much better than Texas. Ohio State tends to match up much better with one-back teams vs. teams with multiple backs. Knowshon Moreno is obviously one hell of a running back, but he was held under a hundred yards five times this season and I think Ohio State could get close to that. Ohio State has a very good secondary which should be able to hold up to the pressure of Matthew Stafford and the talented Georgia Wide Receivers (namely MoMass and A.J. Green). Georgia also hasn’t gotten a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this year, which plays into Ohio State’s favor since the O-line needs all the help they can get.

The games will be announced this Sunday so time will tell. The Fiesta Bowl knows Ohio State fans travel very well, as good as any other team in the nation, and at the end of it all, college football is about money. I don’t think it would be too bad though for the Buckeyes to get one more snub this year and take a chance on a little lower profile game- for the good of their psyche and the good of the conference.

You’re welcome.