Bowl Season Viewing Guide: Volume VI
Connection problems and some late night Wii-ing New Year’s Eve brought the site to a halt. Had I been able to get the post up, I would have predicted (surely) Iowa by 21, Georgia by 12, Nebraska by 5, USC by 14, and Virginia Tech by 13, which is exactly what happened.
Unfortunately, the scenario I pointed out on several occasions whereby the Big Ten goes down in heartland flames is coming true. With the exception of Iowa beating South Carolina (Iowa was the only Big Ten team favored originally) and Northwestern covering the spread against Missouri (but still losing), the Big Ten is what we thought they were- soundly beaten underdogs.
Ordinarily I’d spend three or four paragraphs going on about how we need a playoff and how USC would beat Florida or Oklahoma, but it just doesn’t matter. The bowl games have been somewhat competitive (average margin of victory of 11 points) but mostly flat. The two BCS games played so far have been huge disappointments and pretty bad television (unless you happen to be a USC or VT fan).
On to the games today…
The Michael Crabtree-Breakaway-Last-Minute-Touchdown Catch Bowl (aka “the Cotton Bowl”)
Texas Tech vs. Mississippi / Dallas, TX / January 2nd, 2pm / Fox
I’m setting the over/under on either showing or mentioning Michael Crabtree’s game-winning touchdown catch against Texas at 3. Never mind that the interception that Texas didn’t make on the prior play was the real play of the game. It looks to be a competitive game, at least by the numbers.
Ole Miss is probably one of the best teams you haven’t seen play this year and Texas Tech is what we know them to be- good on offense, potentially good on defense, and slightly crazy at the top (coaching).
The obvious plot is Big XII vs. SEC here but also of note is the emotional hurdle Texas Tech will have. They’re certainly disappointed for not being part of the BCS and will either use it as motivation or let it block their focus. The statistics look good on paper, and of special note is the number of sacks Mississippi has (5th in the nation). They’re pass-rushing ability could be the difference in the game. Texas Tech is favored by 4.
The January Stain Bowl, Part I (aka “the Autozone Liberty Bowl”)
East Carolina vs. Kentucky / Memphis, TN / January 2nd, 5pm / ESPN
The January 1st and beyond bowls should be the cream of the crop, the best teams in the best games as the competition rises like a crescendo. Instead, this game and the International Bowl (January 3rd) have snuck their way in.
This game pits the Conference USA champ (East Carolina) against a 6-6 SEC team that’s lost three games in a row, lost to everyone of worth in the conference, and who’s best win was probably over 5-7 Arkansas. Feel the magic. East Carolina is favored by 3.
The Tide Ute Bowl (aka “the Allstate Sugar Bowl”)
Alabama vs. Utah / New Orleans, LA / January 2nd, 8pm / Fox
This bowl features two of the more obscure mascots in college football playing in what should be an entertaining game. Alabama has been charmed all season and will be looking for more of that against a very quality Utah team, the best of the non-majors as has been my opinion all season.
Big things were expected of the Mountain West in the postseason, especially after their domination of the Pac-Ten during the regular season, but so far mixed results. The MWC is 2-2 with high profile BYU losing to Arizona and TCU escaping with a one-point win over Boise State.
Utah is balanced on offense and good on defense, but I’m not sure they’ve got enough to overcome the domination they’re going to face on both lines. Particularly on offense, Utah is going to be hard pressed to stop the Alabama pass rush and that will probably be the difference in the game. Both teams are stingy with the turnovers so whomever wins that battle will also likely be victorious.
Incidentally, the SEC is 3-1 so far in bowl games and has covered the spread in two of those three wins. Alabama is favored by 9.5.
More installments to follow…
Posted in college football |
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