Breaking Down the Fiesta Bowl
I’m a numbers guy and I’ve gone deep in looking for insight into what may happen in the Fiesta Bowl this evening. My prediction for the game follows at the bottom of all this, but in the meantime, here’s nearly every stat you’ll need to get you ready for the game. First, my usual breakdown:
Of note here in the initial look is the line- started at 10 and is now “down” to 8.5. Texas holds the obvious advantage in scoring offense, but the gap isn’t quite as big as I thought it would be. Scoring defense is also closer than I expected with Texas trailing Ohio State by 13 places. Turnover margin is an advantage for Ohio State should the game play out as the season has. Protecting the quarterback is obviously an area of concern- Texas’ pass rush is fierce as evidenced by their 44 sacks on the year.
Time to dig a little deeper:
Despite Texas not having a dominant running back, their total production was much better than I expected to see (35th nationally vs. 26th for OSU). The passing offense statistic is one of the biggest keys to the game- Ohio State must slow Texas down and Texas will force Ohio State to win by throwing. Both teams are stout against the run and do an average job of controlling the clock. Both teams are fairly even in sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed.
Digging a little deeper:
Texas clearly dominates on 3rd & 4th down conversion offensively so it will be important for Ohio State to do well on 1st and 2nd downs. Red zone offense overwhelmingly favors Texas while both teams are pretty even on red zone defense. The yards per catch stat is very interesting, indicating that discounting for number of pass attempts, both teams have similar capabilities passing the ball.
Looking at the schedules, Texas played seven bowl teams (highlighted in red) going 6-1:
Ohio State played six bowl teams going 4-2 against them:
I also find value in looking at talent for both teams, at least in terms of player ratings/NFL potential. In just about every high profile match up of late, it’s always assumed that Ohio State is less talented (aka “less speed”). The data does not support that in this game. I will say as a caveat, while looking at NFL ratings, several of the Texas players that were higher rated according to scouts aren’t in the Texas two-deep. This is perhaps why Texas has underperformed somewhat in the past based on their recruiting- perhaps Mack Brown is a little too loyal to upper classmen.
The first place to look is the top overall Seniors according to nfldraftcountdown.com. This isn’t a mock draft listing, rather it’s the player ranking of the top 100 seniors this year. Texas is a pretty young team with only 9 senior starters; this is evidenced below in their Senior rankings:
Ohio State also only starts 9 senior starters but several of those players rank higher than their Texas counterparts (edge here goes to Ohio State):
Next up is the Rivals.com Top 25 player rankings at each position. This is inclusive of underclassmen but excludes so many players (not enough top 25 players at each position on each team) that it doesn’t provide a ton of insight. I’d give a slight edge to Texas based on this comparison:
Finally, I searched for a more comprehensive player ranking in terms of NFL future. NFLdraftscout.com lists nearly every player for both teams two-deep and rates them based on the likelihood of them being drafted. The lower the number, the greater likelihood they’ll be drafted into the NFL; the higher the number, the lesser likelihood they’ll be drafted. Here’s the full listing with player ratings:
Interestingly enough, Ohio State holds the edge here over Texas with a 19.4 player average vs. 20.5 for Texas.
These numbers also allow a unit analysis which is shown below:
Ohio State gets the overall edge and in pretty surprising fashion, with Texas only having a unit advantage on paper for O-Line and special teams.
Finally, taking a look at unit vs. unit as it could play out on the field:
I believe the game comes down to five factors, all of which must go Ohio State’s way:
1.) Turnovers. Ohio State has been dominant this year in turnover margin, making key takeaways and limiting mistakes. Two of the biggest mistakes resulted in both losses for the Buckeyes- Maualuga’s TD interception of Boeckman in the USC game and Pryor’s fumble late in the Penn State game. The Buckeyes must keep turnover margin even or better.
2.) Throwing the ball. Good teams can take away part of an offense. In order for Beanie to have the night Buckeye fans need him to have, Terrelle must throw successfully, and early. Three quick incompletions will affect the offense’s confidence for the rest of the game. Three quick completions will do the same but in a positive manner.
3.) Protection. This is something I cite frequently and will be more important than ever tonight. I don’t feel warm and fuzzy about the Brian Orakpo-Alex Boone matchup. I sure hope Boone plays the game of his life because Buckeye fans will need it. If Ohio State has to double up on Orakpo, that will leave Bryant Browning exposed on the other side and we all know how that’s going to turn out. Boone has to step up and Pryor has to use his feet to save a couple plays. Wrapping up offense, the best thing to do against a fierce rush is to run right at it. Runs against the blitz should be successful if Ohio State sticks with Beanie (25+ carries).
4.) “No Zone” zone. Colt McCoy has laser accuracy, one of the best in terms of accuracy in the history of college football. No zone allowed tonight. Ohio State has the secondary to cover the Texas receivers in man coverage, then blitz Texas back into the stone ages. Colt McCoy will still connect on plays but getting to him and affecting passing lanes will get the Texas offense off the field more often than not. I repeat, leave the zone defense on the bus. Please.
5.) TP. It’s unfair to rest an entire bowl game on a freshman but that’s the situation in place. The game will go as Terrelle Pryor goes. If he plays to his capability, Ohio State will win. If he plays as he played against Penn State and at other low-points during the season, it’s going to be another long, cold winter in Columbus.
In the end, I’m hopeful that the OSU coaching staff will learn from their previous mistakes and get more aggressive (don’t read as gimmicky) on both offense and defense. Texas is far too good for Tressel ball, though the game could be close if the Buckeyes can score some points. The offensive line has been a huge disappointment this year and though I’m hopeful the lights will go on tonight, I’ve very, very skeptical. Finally, I’m hopeful that Terrelle Pryor will play the kind of game that gets him Heisman talk for next year; unfortunately, I think he’s still 1/2 a season away.
The caveat I’ll present is I’ve missed on almost every bowl pick this year. Take that for what it’s worth.
Final Score:
Texas 31
Ohio State 20
Posted in college football, Proof (Statistical) That Statistics Don't Matter |
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