The Democrats’ Tactical Error

While inheriting an economic mess, Team Obama had two paths to choose in the name of triage for the economy, and unfortunately for Democrats, they chose the wrong one.

The Democrats had everything going for them at the moment of the inauguration- public opinion in their favor, control of the House and the Senate, people making songs and videos about them, and unprecedented media support. Unfortunately, as Democrats often do, the allure of all that power got the better of them and the wheels are now slowly but surely going to fall off.

The path chosen was a mixed package of some stimulus, some public works projects, expansion of entitlements and a bunch of bullshit. The Democrats know there’s a sticker shock threshold for Americans, and disturbingly that number is around $1 trillion.

Team Obama also knows that most economists agree the combination of tax cuts and job creation needed to chub up the economy is somewhere in the $1 trillion mark.

So with that, they had a choice: 1.) Put together a mixed package to help seed the far left agenda, while knowing full well they’ll have to come back with further stimulus in another couple months; or 2.) Pass a full stimulus plan now and then come back with the pet projects bill in a few months once they’ve given the appropriate TLC to the economy.

Option # 1 makes good on promises Team Obama made to their base but leaves the economy in suspended peril. The upside is that if you believe half of our economic woes are based on emotions, half-wits who are just satisfied by “Obama getting things done” may unsuspectingly increase their personal spending. This won’t have any lasting effect but could provide an underlying short-term boost.

The Dems also have some remaining mileage from the “Bush got us here” rhetoric, but they’re burning through that very quickly, mostly in the name of defending some of the more ridiculous things that were in the original package like sodding the national mall lawn.

The flip side and the scenario we’re in now is that the package will likely do very little to affect the economy in the next 3-4 months. There are plenty of questions that any measure would make meaningful short-term difference, and that’s part of the Dems’ miscalculation.

Meanwhile, politically, the Republicans voted unanimously against the bill in the House and at the same time presented their own bill that featured only tax cuts and jobs. The Senate had three defectors which ultimately decided the outcome, but hardly the 80 votes Obama was hoping for. So when Team Obama is forced to come back to the American people in a few months for another ½ a trillion, the Republicans will be in a position to flip public opinion completely around, and just in time for 2010 elections.

I’m not saying the Republican house is in order; it’s still in a pretty high state of disarray. But, they most definitely got this move correct politically, and after all, that’s all most politicians care about- left or right.

In the interim watch how desperately the liberal media attempts to put a positive spin on any economic data in the black over the next two quarters. There will be positive data in places- especially when you look at like-for-like numbers on an annual basis. The glimmers of hope that get spun like golden yarn are all that can save the Democrat majority. And even that isn’t going to get it done.

You’re welcome.