And down the stretch they come…

With three or four conference games left (depending on the team), the Big Ten race and the race for the Rose Bowl is coming down to three schools. Time to take a look at what’s left on the table as well as some statistical analysis on the Buckeyes. I hope to have some special coverage up for OSU-Penn State next week as well.

Iowa
The cardiac kids (one of many) will spend all but one of their remaining games in the comfy confines of Kinnick Stadium. Iowa has Indiana then a tricky matchup with Northwestern before traveling to Columbus for the showdown with Ohio State. Game time hasn’t been announced yet for the OSU game, but it sure would make sense for it to be a night game in the ‘Shoe.

The Hawkeyes finish the season with Minnesota, who may or may not be fighting for bowl eligibility. It’s hard to believe an undefeated Iowa team would get tripped up in this game, particularly because the Gophers don’t have many teeth, but stranger things have happened.

The formula is simple for the Hawkeyes- win and you’re in. In what exactly remains to be seen, but the Rose Bowl at a minimum. As much as the computers love them, there would be a strong possibility of them playing in the National Championship. With a win over Penn State already, Iowa is in the driver’s seat for the conference championship.

Penn State
At the start of the season, the view from State College was pretty good with both Iowa and Ohio State visiting the roaring Lion. With a loss to Iowa already in the books, Penn State’s room for error is razor thin in two weeks when Ohio State comes calling.

Before Team JoePa can get to the Buckeyes, they have a trip to Evanston to take on a 5-3 Northwestern team. Northwestern has a serviceable defense and a strong passing game which should provide a good tune up, the same of which can’t be said for Ohio State’s opponent.

Following the Buckeyes, Penn State has a home game with Indiana before closing on the road against Michigan State. Just like Minnesota for Iowa (see above), Sparty likely will be fighting for a bowl game as well.

Ohio State
Of the three, Ohio State has the trickiest road to go. The Buckeyes get the scrimmage at home this weekend against a horrendous WAC team before traveling to State College to play Penn State. They return home the following weekend for Iowa before traveling to Ann Arbor for the annual grudge match with Michigan.

Just like Iowa and Penn State, the final game for the Buckeyes is a big time trap. Michigan stands at 5-3 now with Illinois, Purdue and Wisconsin before Ohio State. It’s likely they too will be fighting for bowl eligibility heading into that final Big Ten weekend. And nothing salvages a disappointing season better than taking your rival to the woodshed (this applies to both squads).

How I think it will end up:
As things stand now, I think Penn State will beat Ohio State and Ohio State will beat Iowa. That would knock Ohio State out of the race and leave Iowa and Penn State both with one conference loss.

Iowa obviously holds the tie-breaker with the win over the Nits, but the championship will be decided on the final game. In those final games, I think Iowa will beat Minnesota and Penn State will lose at Michigan State, sending Iowa to the Rose Bowl or perhaps the BCS Championship game.

Taking a quick peek at the numbers…
First, the happy news for the Buckeyes. Despite the offense turning the ball over early and often, the defense is forcing enough turnovers that OSU ranks 23rd nationally in turnover margin. The Buckeyes also average almost 3 sacks per game which is good enough for 16th nationally.

Most defensive statistics are very strong, with the Buckeyes ranking 7th in scoring defense, 13th in total defense, 10th in rush defense and 29th in passing D. Pass efficiency defense is also strong ranking 15th nationally.

Not surprisingly, the futility of the offense can be expressed numerically in those national rankings as well. Worst is passing offense which at 182 yards per game is ranked 100th. Rushing offense tempers that somewhat with Ohio State ranked 42nd nationally with 171 yards per game.

Scoring offense is 42nd nationally with 29 points per game (obviously not all from the offense). Pass efficiency, which was a bright spot for Terrelle last season, has declined this year to 63rd nationally (Penn State is 5th for example).

The one bright spot for the offense is that they’ve improved in sacks allowed (hard to believe). Last year they were giving up more than two per game. This year they’ve gotten that “down” to 1.75. While one sack fewer every four games doesn’t sound like much, it’s a lot for a team that can’t run the ball consistently and faces sellout blitzes every down.

You’re welcome.