The linebackers worked out yesterday in Indianapolis and on hand for the Buckeyes were Marcus Freeman and James Laurinaitis. Laurinaitis was what everybody thought he was- an All-American, master technician, brilliant in pass coverage, and just a step slower than the fastest guys. The real story was Marcus Freeman, who like Brian Robiskie the day before, probably helped his draft position by at least a round.

Freeman ran the drills very well looking very smooth with quick transitions and good overall speed. His 40-time of 4.74 was enough for 7th best overall among the Linebackers (tied with Brian Cushing from USC). Incidentally, there’s an interesting thread over at Rivals about whether or not Cushing is on roids and here’s a funny throwback post of him coming out of college.

Freeman also tied Cushing for the best bench press (30 reps), tied Aaron Curry for the best vertical jump (37 inches), 4th best on the 3-cone drill (6.98 seconds), and best of the linebackers on the 20-yard shuttle (4.12 seconds).

The DB’s are up today so time for Malcolm Jenkins to shine. Here’s an article indicating Jenkins may have quite a bit to prove.

On the non-Buckeye front, Virginia LB Aaron Curry proved to be the best of the bunch, at least athletically. He looks to have all the tools to be a Pro-Bowler in his first year in the league, and might be the best overall player in the draft this year.

You’re welcome.

With the college football bowl games in the books, time to take a look back and determine which conferences did well and which conferences embarrassed themselves. For a refresher on how I calculate the numbers, click here.

The big winner was the Pac-Ten who was favored in four of five bowl games and won all five. Not surprisingly, the SEC performed very well also going 6-2 while only being favored in three. Despite general opinion that the Big XII was the best conference in college football this year, the league only was able to go 4-3 despite being favored in five of their games.

On the flip side, and also not surprisingly, was the Big Ten who finished 1-6 and the MAC who went 0-5. The Big Ten was favored in only one of those games, as was the MAC.

According to my point system, here’s how the conferences shook out before dividing by the number of games they played:

Finally, here are my final numbers along with the ESPN bowl challenge percentages:

Thursday night we get the two best teams in college football, at least according to some computers and a bunch of voters, playing in Miami for the BCS championship. The matchup I’d like to see- Oklahoma’s offense against USC’s defense- obviously isn’t possible. But knowing what we know from the bowl games already played, consider the 8-team playoff field that I called for prior to the bowl season:

#8 Utah @ #1 Florida
#7 Texas Tech @ #2 Oklahoma
#6 Penn State @ #3 Texas
#5 Alabama @ #4 USC

Assuming the higher seeds won, that would have given us the following Semifinals:

#1 Florida vs. #4 USC
#3 Texas vs. #2 Oklahoma

The four outcome variations for the final would then obviously be:

Florida vs. Texas or
Florida vs. Oklahoma or
Texas vs. USC or
Oklahoma vs. USC

Instead of getting a definitive champion, the best case scenario for the BCS this year will give us an undefeated team in Utah and three one-loss teams in USC, Texas, and either Florida or Oklahoma.

Getting back to reality, here’s a quick look at some of the season stats for OU-UF:

Oklahoma gets all the pub for the high-powered offense, and rightfully so, but Florida is no slouch ranking 3rd in the nation in scoring. Also of note is that these are the top two teams in the country in terms of turnover ratio.

Looking a little deeper into the statistics:

The push for Oklahoma on defense is going to be to get Florida to pass more than they’d like to and get them out of rhythm. Percy Harvin is allegedly 90% healthy, whatever that means, and the Gators will need him to keep the continuity to the Florida O.

On offense for Oklahoma, the Sooners are going to miss DeMarco Murray badly. They’ve still got playmakers everywhere but Murray is as valuable to the Sooners as Harvin is to the Gators. OU has had plenty of time to gameplan without Murray, but practice and the real thing are two different beasts, especially against the speedy Florida D. It will be fascinating to watch Florida deal with the hurry up offense of the Sooners. We saw what an inability to get subs in did to a team when Ohio State gave up 14 points to Texas in the 3rd quarter of the Fiesta Bowl.

Looking at the last batch of statistics above, the two teams are very similar. Florida has a clear advantage, at least on paper, in red zone defense and field goal percentage, should the game come down to that.

Despite not being the matchup I’d prefer to see, this game is fascinating in so many ways:

**The past two Heisman trophy winners face each other in Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford. I can think of only one other occasion when this happened- ‘04 with Jason White and Matt Leinart (could be wrong there).

**With two high-powered offenses, how many points are going to be scored? The ‘96 Fiesta Bowl featured the most points in any BCS Championship game thus far- 86. Odds are pretty good this game will match or exceed that (the over/under is 72).

**This game features two head coaches that are both from Ohio- Stoops from Youngstown and Meyer from Ashtabula.

Florida is currently favored by 5 and I’m siding with Vegas on this one. As good as both teams are, I think it comes down to defense in special teams and in both of those categories, Florida has the edge.

Final Score:
Florida- 45
Oklahoma- 38

I’m a numbers guy and I’ve gone deep in looking for insight into what may happen in the Fiesta Bowl this evening. My prediction for the game follows at the bottom of all this, but in the meantime, here’s nearly every stat you’ll need to get you ready for the game. First, my usual breakdown:

Of note here in the initial look is the line- started at 10 and is now “down” to 8.5. Texas holds the obvious advantage in scoring offense, but the gap isn’t quite as big as I thought it would be. Scoring defense is also closer than I expected with Texas trailing Ohio State by 13 places. Turnover margin is an advantage for Ohio State should the game play out as the season has. Protecting the quarterback is obviously an area of concern- Texas’ pass rush is fierce as evidenced by their 44 sacks on the year.

Time to dig a little deeper:

Despite Texas not having a dominant running back, their total production was much better than I expected to see (35th nationally vs. 26th for OSU). The passing offense statistic is one of the biggest keys to the game- Ohio State must slow Texas down and Texas will force Ohio State to win by throwing. Both teams are stout against the run and do an average job of controlling the clock. Both teams are fairly even in sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed.

Digging a little deeper:

Texas clearly dominates on 3rd & 4th down conversion offensively so it will be important for Ohio State to do well on 1st and 2nd downs. Red zone offense overwhelmingly favors Texas while both teams are pretty even on red zone defense. The yards per catch stat is very interesting, indicating that discounting for number of pass attempts, both teams have similar capabilities passing the ball.

Looking at the schedules, Texas played seven bowl teams (highlighted in red) going 6-1:

Ohio State played six bowl teams going 4-2 against them:

I also find value in looking at talent for both teams, at least in terms of player ratings/NFL potential. In just about every high profile match up of late, it’s always assumed that Ohio State is less talented (aka “less speed”). The data does not support that in this game. I will say as a caveat, while looking at NFL ratings, several of the Texas players that were higher rated according to scouts aren’t in the Texas two-deep. This is perhaps why Texas has underperformed somewhat in the past based on their recruiting- perhaps Mack Brown is a little too loyal to upper classmen.

The first place to look is the top overall Seniors according to nfldraftcountdown.com. This isn’t a mock draft listing, rather it’s the player ranking of the top 100 seniors this year. Texas is a pretty young team with only 9 senior starters; this is evidenced below in their Senior rankings:

Ohio State also only starts 9 senior starters but several of those players rank higher than their Texas counterparts (edge here goes to Ohio State):

Next up is the Rivals.com Top 25 player rankings at each position. This is inclusive of underclassmen but excludes so many players (not enough top 25 players at each position on each team) that it doesn’t provide a ton of insight. I’d give a slight edge to Texas based on this comparison:

Finally, I searched for a more comprehensive player ranking in terms of NFL future. NFLdraftscout.com lists nearly every player for both teams two-deep and rates them based on the likelihood of them being drafted. The lower the number, the greater likelihood they’ll be drafted into the NFL; the higher the number, the lesser likelihood they’ll be drafted. Here’s the full listing with player ratings:

Interestingly enough, Ohio State holds the edge here over Texas with a 19.4 player average vs. 20.5 for Texas.

These numbers also allow a unit analysis which is shown below:

Ohio State gets the overall edge and in pretty surprising fashion, with Texas only having a unit advantage on paper for O-Line and special teams.

Finally, taking a look at unit vs. unit as it could play out on the field:

I believe the game comes down to five factors, all of which must go Ohio State’s way:

1.) Turnovers. Ohio State has been dominant this year in turnover margin, making key takeaways and limiting mistakes. Two of the biggest mistakes resulted in both losses for the Buckeyes- Maualuga’s TD interception of Boeckman in the USC game and Pryor’s fumble late in the Penn State game. The Buckeyes must keep turnover margin even or better.

2.) Throwing the ball. Good teams can take away part of an offense. In order for Beanie to have the night Buckeye fans need him to have, Terrelle must throw successfully, and early. Three quick incompletions will affect the offense’s confidence for the rest of the game. Three quick completions will do the same but in a positive manner.

3.) Protection. This is something I cite frequently and will be more important than ever tonight. I don’t feel warm and fuzzy about the Brian Orakpo-Alex Boone matchup. I sure hope Boone plays the game of his life because Buckeye fans will need it. If Ohio State has to double up on Orakpo, that will leave Bryant Browning exposed on the other side and we all know how that’s going to turn out. Boone has to step up and Pryor has to use his feet to save a couple plays. Wrapping up offense, the best thing to do against a fierce rush is to run right at it. Runs against the blitz should be successful if Ohio State sticks with Beanie (25+ carries).

4.) “No Zone” zone. Colt McCoy has laser accuracy, one of the best in terms of accuracy in the history of college football. No zone allowed tonight. Ohio State has the secondary to cover the Texas receivers in man coverage, then blitz Texas back into the stone ages. Colt McCoy will still connect on plays but getting to him and affecting passing lanes will get the Texas offense off the field more often than not. I repeat, leave the zone defense on the bus. Please.

5.) TP. It’s unfair to rest an entire bowl game on a freshman but that’s the situation in place. The game will go as Terrelle Pryor goes. If he plays to his capability, Ohio State will win. If he plays as he played against Penn State and at other low-points during the season, it’s going to be another long, cold winter in Columbus.

In the end, I’m hopeful that the OSU coaching staff will learn from their previous mistakes and get more aggressive (don’t read as gimmicky) on both offense and defense. Texas is far too good for Tressel ball, though the game could be close if the Buckeyes can score some points. The offensive line has been a huge disappointment this year and though I’m hopeful the lights will go on tonight, I’ve very, very skeptical. Finally, I’m hopeful that Terrelle Pryor will play the kind of game that gets him Heisman talk for next year; unfortunately, I think he’s still 1/2 a season away.

The caveat I’ll present is I’ve missed on almost every bowl pick this year. Take that for what it’s worth.

Final Score:
Texas 31
Ohio State 20

There are loads of reasons for Buckeye nation to not feel good about Monday night- the recent “big game” record, the problems with the offensive line, the Big Ten bowl performance this year, the fact that Texas is ranked 2nd in rush defense and Colt McCoy has been deadly accurate, etc., etc. There are plenty of reasons for optimism though, and with any luck optimism will win out.

1.) The long layoff could actually help the Buckeyes this year. Much was made of the long layoffs the last two years, but for a team that largely reinvented itself on offense 1/3rd of the way through the season, another several weeks of practice is a very, very good thing. With freshmen at quarterback and center, a second spring practice is exactly what this team needed.

2.) The foot. Every team plays with injuries but any sensible college football fan would admit that Beanie Wells’ foot injury in the season opener changed the complexion of the season for the Buckeyes. He’s the healthiest he’s been since the injury and according to reports is even running in a regular shoe now. Assuming this is his final collegiate game, Beanie could be motivated and healthy enough to do something extraordinary.

3.) Ohio State knows Texas. These are different players to be sure, but there is a level of familiarity with Texas after the regular season games in 2005 and 2006. It’s not really an advantage for either team, but may help Ohio State compared to Florida or LSU the last two seasons.

4.) There’s no Beanie in the Big XII. Texas is #2 in the country in rush D but haven’t played against anyone as good as Beanie. The only Big XII rusher that’s in the top 45 nationally is Oklahoma State’s Kendall Hunter. Hunter is smaller than Beanie (only 5′8″, 190) and yet Hunter rushed for 161 yards on 18 carries against the Longhorns. Texas has a fierce pass rush and sometimes the best thing to do to combat that is to run right at it. With a big dude that’s fast. Hmmmm….

5.) Texas thinks they should be in the National Championship. Texas is too good and too well-coached to take a consolation game for granted, but should Ohio State jump out to an early lead, emotions could turn against the Longhorns.

6.) Young secondary. Texas has the 109th best (worst) pass defense in the country. Part of that is the offenses they played against in the Big XII and part is that most of their opponents have been playing catch up. A big reason also is that the Longhorns have four freshmen and two sophomores in the two-deep in the secondary. Good for the future but not necessarily a good thing against veteran receivers like Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline.

7.) The underdogs won on Friday night. The dogs haven’t done well this bowl season, but at least Friday night in the Cotton Bowl and the Sugar Bowl, Mississippi and Utah both won.

You’re welcome.

We returned to the Red Renee world headquarters two days ago to find a blown sump pump and a basement full of water. Needless to say, the site’s running a little slow.

The “big boy” bowl games are fast approaching so it’s time to take brief moment and look back on the rest.

In terms of conference performance, the Pac-Ten and the Big East have looked impressive so far. Both conferences are 3-0 and the only thing separating them is the fact that Rutgers didn’t cover the spread so by my numbers, the Pac-Ten is in slightly better shape. Despite having a 3-3 record, the ACC has also performed well. They were underdogs in the three games they lost and covered the spread in the three wins (good for nine points total).

Here’s the current point total by conference (not divided yet because all the games haven’t been played). If you need a refresher on my point system, click here.

The favorites have won 13 of 17 bowl games so far which doesn’t bode well for future underdogs. In those 13 wins, the favorites covered the spread 9 times.

In terms of notable performances, there were a couple that stood out for me. Willie Tuitama finished his career with Arizona on a very high note going 24-35 for 325 yards and two touchdowns in the win over BYU. Tuitama had a very up and down year, but pulled it together when it counted.

For all the crap I’ve given Notre Dame this year, they impressed me in their game against Hawaii. Hawaii is a very mediocre team, but Notre Dame couldn’t beat several other mediocre teams during the regular season so there’s at least evidence of growth. The Irish will need to win games against similar opponents next year or Chuck Weis will surely be out. The bad news on this is the positive press for Notre Dame during the off-season will be insufferable and there will likely be a couple slobs that even mention Jimmy Clausen for the Heisman next year (ugh).

I was unimpressed with the Badgers in their blowout loss to Florida State. Bret Bielema may in fact be in over his head; a 7-7 record in 2008 including the Outback Bowl loss in January doesn’t look good. Badger nation is getting restless- like here, or the obligatory firebretbielema.com. They’ve got questions all over the place to get answered for 2009, otherwise Bielema might be on his way out.

Jahvid Best. Get to know his name. If you haven’t watched Pac-Ten football this year, you’ve missed one of the best backs in the country. JB finished the year with almost 1,600 yards and more impressively, an 8.1 yard per carry average. He’s only a Sophomore so expect him to do big things next year.

Mike Teel finished off a remarkable season recovery for Rutgers. The Senior QB had a dismal first half of the season throwing 3 touchdowns against 7 interceptions, with a 56% completion percentage. Through the final six games, he threw 20 touchdowns against only 5 interceptions, and improved his completion percentage to 68%.

I have to give credit to both Northwestern and Missouri. To Northwestern for playing tough and not giving up against a Missouri team that simply had more talent. To Missouri for keeping their heads in a game that they could have not been prepared for mentally given all they’ve been through this year. On a sidebar, bad form to Northwestern in overtime. How can you not put the ball in Tyrell Sutton’s hands even once after such a productive regulation. That’s why they’re Northwestern I suppose, but inexcusable play-calling.

Finally, huge props to Oregon. I called for an Oklahoma State win on the basis of them having the better QB. Clearly I was wrong. Jeremiah Masoli played lights out when he needed to, particularly running the ball. The second best touchdown of the night came in the 3rd quarter when Masoli plowed over a defender and ran the ball in for the score (see highlights below). The best touchdown of the game and one of the best touchdowns of the entire college football season came from Oregon RB LeGarrette Blount in the 4th quarter (about 3:07 mark). Blount takes the handoff, hurdles a dude, then drags two other defenders into the end zone. Beanie-esque if you will (I know you will).

In fairness to Okie State, Dez Bryant played on only one knee (still was the leading receiver), but somebody else needed to step up. The jury is still out on Big XII dominance as well. Oregon has the 77th ranked scoring defense and yet a mighty Big XII offense was held to 31 points.

You’re welcome.

ESPN has something called the “Bowl Challenge” where they award a title to whichever conference finishes with the best bowl record. Considering that bowl matchups are rarely even, with bizarre tie-ins and lots of coaching fluctuation, we think this is a little too simple of a way to determine which conference had the best bowl season. Instead, we’ve come up with a points system that much more accurately assesses how each conference performs. We did this last year and will track the games again this year.

Rather than just look at wins and losses, we’re using the vegas line to draw a finer point. It goes a lil’ something like this:

* Lose as the favorite or lose and not cover the spread: 0 points
* Lose but cover the spread: 1 point
* Win but don’t cover the spread: 2 points
* Win and cover the spread: 3 points

Once we’ve tallied the above points, we’re going to divide each conferences point total by the total number of games they played in. The highest final score wins the challenge. We’ll report back with the final standings and provide a comparison to the ESPN figures as well.

Not surprisingly, the SEC was the winner last year with a final score of 2.33, just edging the Pac-Ten at 2.17.

2007 Results:

You’re welcome.

Nice of Billy Sims to scream “Boomer” a dozen times like a crazy person, even making the winning QB from Oklahoma a little uncomfortable

Besides Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford winning the Heisman Saturday night, we learned two very important pieces of information.

First, we learned that Florida is going to beat Oklahoma. The Heisman curse is real, and on top of not having experience playing in the NC like Tebow has, Bradford has to deal with fate. The last four non-USC Heisman QB’s have all lost their bowl games. Tebow lost the Capital One Bowl last year. Troy Smith lost the BCS championship in 2006. Jason White lost the ‘03 Sugar Bowl. Eric Crouch lost the ‘01 Rose Bowl. And now Sam Bradford is going to lose in the ‘08 championship game.

We also learned that there was a really, really good reason why the Heisman folks didn’t invite Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell. It turns out Harrell only got 4% of the total points compared with 3rd place finisher Tebow who had 29.3%. Harrell was far closer to 5th place Michael Crabtree at 2.2% than Tebow, and even if Crabtree and Harrell combined their points for some Red Raider pirate magic, they would have still only been at 6.2%.

How the votes came down for the top three was a bit surprising as well. Voters were split on Tebow giving him the most 1st place votes as well as the most 3rd place votes. Bradford got it done with a close margin in 1st place votes and an overwhelming lead on Tebow in 2nd place votes and three percentage points better on the same over baby Colt McCoy.

The results also present a fascinating scenario whereby, should Bradford and Tebow return next year, and McCoy returns as promised, the top three vote-getters will be back and the odds of another Archie Griffen double (mathematically at least, probably greater statistically). Also interesting will be that Bradford looks like he’ll actually be a good pro QB, which certainly hasn’t been the case historically.

You’re welcome.

The inscription on the Heisman Trophy reads “The Outstanding College Football Player in the United States 2008″

Hmmm….2008 and United States I understand. Maybe this will help:

out·stand·ing, adj.
1. Standing out among others of its kind; prominent.
2. Superior to others of its kind; distinguished.
3. Projecting upward or outward; standing out.

There lies the crux of the problem with the Heisman Trophy. The word “outstanding” lends itself to a high degree of subjectivity. Does outstanding mean “best at his position”? “Best pro prospect”? “Most inspirational”? “Most Valuable Player”? The truth is voters tend to fit the definition to whichever candidate they like the best in years like this where there isn’t a clear-cut front-runner.

More to the point, and what has weakened the significance of the Heisman Trophy in the last two decades, is that the trophy has been functionally defined as going to the QB or RB on one of the best couple teams. The media drives most of this and there’s not a single thing that can be done to stop it. Unfortunately the media, particularly ESPN, will continue to lessen the significance of the Heisman in the future.

I define the Heisman as a combination of “most outstanding” and “most valuable to their team” on a team that’s delivered outstanding results. Again- very subjective. I also apply the standard of “how would the team have performed without player ‘X’?” All that boils down for me to the following Heisman ballot:

1.) Colt McCoy- Texas
2.) Sam Bradford- Oklahoma
3.) Graham Harrell - Texas Tech

It’s an easy choice for McCoy in my opinion. He’s 1st in the nation in passing completion percentage, 3rd in passer rating, he’s the leading rusher on his team, and without him, Texas would easily have had three losses this year.

First, vs. Tebow- McCoy has a far greater completion percentage, threw for almost 1,000 more yards than Tebow, rushed for more yards than Tebow and scored two more total touchdowns. If Tebow didn’t win last year and Florida wasn’t playing in the national championship, Tebow wouldn’t be a finalist. Florida is loaded on offense and defense, and while Tebow is a very unique and gifted college player, the Gators would still be at or near the top without him, especially in a down year like this year in the SEC.

McCoy vs. Bradford is a little trickier. Bradford’s numbers are sick, video-game sick. However, Bradford hasn’t been the running threat McCoy has and Bradford is surrounded by better players. Consider that 3 of the 6 Big XII first-team Offensive Linemen are Sooners, only one plays for Texas. Oklahoma placed 7 players on the first-team list vs. only the one for Texas.

Regarding Graham Harrell, he certainly has risen above the “system quarterback” stigma, and the yards he’s compiled are impressive. However, Harrell has 568 passing attempts vs. 442 for Bradford and only 375 attempts for McCoy. Scale that back and his yards end up lower than McCoy’s, and without the yards on the ground (Harrell had -58 yards rushing).

I do think it sucks that Harrell didn’t get invited to the Heisman ceremony. I tend to agree with Mike Leach who when asked about his QB Graham Harrell not being invited to the Heisman ceremony, said:

“If Graham is not invited to the Heisman, they ought to quit giving out the award,” Leach said. “It is a shameless example of politics ruling over performance. The other guys are deserving, but he has earned a place alongside them.”

The Heisman people will say the players invited to the ceremony are determined by “the natural breaking point” of how the votes turned out. So that means Harrell didn’t get enough votes to be in the conversation, which is just silly. By any standard, Harrell’s performance and importance to his team should demand at least a 3rd place vote.

No matter. The irony is the votes for McCoy and Bradford will probably cancel each other out and Tebow will likely win for the 2nd year in a row.

You’re welcome.

Taking a look at some of the early betting lines on the college football bowl games…

Most games look to be fairly uncompetitive. The biggest mismatch, at least in terms of lines, looks to be the Alamo Bowl where Missouri is either a 13 or 13.5 point favorite over Northwestern (depending on which sports book you reference).

Regarding the Big Ten in non-BCS games, as I have written prior, it doesn’t look good (nearly all dogs). Minnesota is 10-point underdog to Kansas in the Insight Bowl. Florida State is either a 4.5 or 5-point favorite over Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl. Michigan State is a 7.5 point underdog to Georgia in the Citrus Bowl. The lone bright spot (perhaps) is Iowa who’s a 3-point favorite over South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. But that’s against Steve Spurrier so take that for what it’s worth.

Looking at the BCS Bowl games, USC is a 10-point favorite over Penn State in the Rose Bowl. Cincinnati is only a 1-point favorite over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Texas Tech is a 6-point favorite over Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl. Alabama is a 10-point favorite over Utah in the Sugar Bowl. Texas is a 10-point favorite over Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. And in the big one, Florida is currently a 3-point favorite over Oklahoma in the BCS national championship game.

You’re welcome.

It’s always an interesting exercise to look at the final (pre-bowl) coaches’ poll since the votes become a matter of public record. If you care to peruse them yourself, click here. If you’re not so inclined, here are the highlights:

Florida and Oklahoma were pretty evenly ranked either 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the poll, but Rick Neuheisel (UCLA) had OU ranked 4th on his ballot. Perhaps a nod of support to Texas (whom he ranked 1st), or a response to bleacherreport.com who accused Neuheisel of being ball-less or lacking balls.

Texas didn’t get pity from at least four places- the Longhorns had four coaches that voted them in 5th place- Baylor coach Art Briles, Mark Dantonio (Michigan State), Mike Leach (Texas Tech), and Greg Schiano (Rutgers). Leach voted Oklahoma #1 and his Red Raider team 2nd, a fact that I find laughable. If there’s logic to what he did, you’d think he would have had Texas 3rd.

Georgia coach Mark Richt displayed semi-hard SEC wood by ranking Florida 1st and Alabama 2nd. Alabama wasn’t so lucky with five other coaches who had the former #1 team 6th- Joe Glenn (Wyoming), Rocky Long (New Mexico), Greg Schiano (Rutgers), Mark Snyder (Marshall) and Ron Zooker (of the fighting Zookers, Illinois). Not to be outdone, Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema ranked ‘Bama 7th. Perhaps with an ACC team ahead in the bowl (Florida State), Bielema felt clear to take a groin shot at the SEC.

USC’s got a couple of detractors in Tommy Bowden, who had the Trojans 7th, and Howard Schnellenberger (FAU) who had USC 8th.

Boise State head man Chris Peterson apparently isn’t a fan of the Big Ten. He voted his Broncos 7th while he voted Penn State 10th and Ohio State 11th. Strong behavior from a team that has a blue astro-turf field.

Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel isn’t a fan of the mid-majors. He voted Utah 15th, Boise State 16th, and TCU 17th.

Jim Tressel and the Buckeyes got a little love from both Turner Gill (Buffalo) and Joe Tiller (Purdue) who had OSU 7th.

Finally, Gary Pinkel (Missouri) must have a timeshare in the north Georgia mountains, because he’s definitely in a Georgia state of mind. Pinkel voted Georgia Tech 9th and Georgia 12th, six and five points respectively ahead of where they finished.

And we’re all reeeeeal comfortable having the fate of college football in the hands of the above, aren’t we? Right…

You’re welcome.

Time for a little college football fun. I’ll give you the resume of a college football team and you see if you can guess who it is.

This team is one of the four undefeated teams in the country. The opponents of this team have a combined record of 66 wins and 76 losses. Of the teams this team has beaten, only one is currently ranked in the top 25 of the BCS. This team beat a 2-10 Tulane team by 14 at home.

Think you’ve figured it out?

This should help you figure it out if you haven’t yet; here’s the full schedule of the team I’m describing:

It’s #1 Alabama. And all of the above is part of why Alabama is #3 in the computers including 5th in one and 4th in two. By record, Alabama’s schedule ranks as the 88th most difficult in D-I football; Jeff Sagarin ranks it as the 73rd most difficult schedule. That will get a healthy bump after playing Florida this weekend, but hardly what you would expect playing in “the toughest conference in college football”.

We know Alabama is undefeated. We know they played one monster half of football against Georgia. Mississippi is improved, but Alabama only beat them by 4 points. The truth is we don’t know a whole lot about how good Alabama is, at least vs. quality competition. Evidence definitely indicates the SEC is having a down year, despite the half-life on its’ national reputation and the fact that they’ve won the last two national championships.

The collapse of Tennessee and Auburn plus the high expectations not met by Georgia are a big source of the problem. That, coupled with the obvious five-loss disappointment at defending national champion LSU, and a poor showing against the ACC in the final week of the regular season.

The fact is that the SEC only has three teams currently ranked in the top 25, and half of the conference is .500 or worse. Contrast that with the lowly Big Ten who has four teams in the top 25, the ACC who has four teams in as well, or the WAC who has three teams in. That’s not a sign of southern dominance. And that hasn’t gone unnoticed.

And yet somehow, with all this evidence, 107 of 113 Harris Poll voters have Alabama #1. All because they’re undefeated I suppose, although so is Utah, Boise State, and Ball State. The non-BCS teams don’t seem to get the same “undefeated” benefit of the doubt (not that anyone should). Nor should anyone should have faith in the Harris poll after this story.

The problem that college football continues to have is that it uses a comparative system while the data points are scattered and diverse, and even when data points do coincide (like shared opponents), there are so many other variables involved (location, injuries, prior games, weather, etc.) that comparisons there don’t work. The system is flawed and no amount of “tweaking” will provide the solution.

Should Alabama beat Florida and go on to beat Oklahoma, than we can be fairly certain they’re the best team in the country or one of the best two. Should they lose to Florida or Oklahoma though, than we’ll be left guessing with whatever and whomever is still left standing, and will only have the bitter optimism of a shared AP national title for someone to provide some sense of “fairness”. And that’s no way to end a season.

With the Heisman race tightening by the day, reports are that Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell played the second half against Baylor on Saturday with two shattered fingers on his non-throwing hand (aka “the less awesome one”). On Sunday Harrell reportedly underwent four hours of surgery which included seventeen pins and nine plates to correct nine separate breaks. No word if any of the “quarterback microchips” that Mike Leach implants in all his quarterbacks were damaged.

Leach said “Even though [I have] no specific comment, it’s just further evidence on why he should get the Heisman, and to me it’s a no-brainer because I thought he should have gotten it last year.”

Not to be outdone, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford played the second half of the Oklahoma State game Saturday night with torn ligaments in his non-throwing hand (aka “the equally awesome, but less famous hand”). According to the report, Bradford will wear a soft cast Saturday against Missouri and then have surgery next week.

No word if Tim Tebow intends to play Saturday against Alabama with a sympathy cast on his non-throwing hand or with his legs in a burlap sack.

And speaking of the Heisman trophy, and since it’s already been determined by law that a quarterback is to win the award this year, here are the statistics for each of the front-runners. I added in Nate Davis from Ball State in the name of fairness.

My vote goes to Colt McCoy. If you’ve watched Texas all season, you know McCoy carried the offense the first half of the season when the running game was struggling for life. Bradford’s numbers are sick but OU is grossly loaded with NFL talent and I think they’d still be where they are with lesser QB contribution. Tebow is only being mentioned this year because he won last year and Florida is very good. Harrell’s numbers are crazy too, but if weren’t for that defense he’d get the “system QB” label like all his predecessors.

In a system as systematically flawed as the BCS, a fair outcome isn’t possible, but the computers finally put a bullet into Mack Brown and the Texas Longhorns. It wasn’t unassisted, as the coaches’ poll had Oklahoma ahead of Texas also; that in combination with the margin in the computers put the Sooners into Big XII Championship game and, assuming they beat Missouri, into the National Championship. Texas…..not so much.

Perhaps Mack Brown shouldn’t have shelved the starters with 12:22 left in the 4th quarter up 42-3 on Texas A&M. Maybe 60+ on the helpless Aggies would have improved the coaches’ opinions of Texas. Instead, despite Texas beating Oklahoma head-to-head on a neutral field by 10 points, the computers, enough Harris voters, and coaches felt compelled or mathematically driven to put the Sooners ahead.

The implications reach further than just the Big XII title game. It’s a foregone conclusion that the national championship game will feature the Big XII champ and the SEC champ. So by exclusion in the Big XII title game, Texas is likely out of the national title picture as well, despite beating both teams that are playing in the Big XII championship game.

Regarding the rest of the BCS, wouldn’t it be poetic if, upon beating Alabama, Florida still wasn’t able to jump Texas in the BCS. Right now Florida stands 4th in the BCS, and a pretty healthy margin behind #3 Texas. They’re a consensus 4th in both human polls and 6th in the computers. It’s expected that should they be 1st in both human polls and perhaps 4th or 5th in the computers, Florida would be #2.

Assuming Florida does beat Alabama and Oklahoma beats Missouri Saturday, here’s the mess we’ll be left with: Florida, Alabama, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Penn State and USC all with one loss. Plus Utah, Boise State and Ball State sitting as undefeated mid-majors. If plucking two teams out of that quagmire helps you sleep at night- good for you. But a whole bunch of teams are getting screwed next Sunday when the bowl pairings are officially announced.

Here’s a video that’s comically appropriate for the mess we’re forced to be in thanks to the money-driven university Presidents:

You’re welcome.

The story of the 2008 Ohio State season can be summed up with three figures: 72nd, 95th, and 1 to 1.

This comes as no surprise to those of you that have watched the Buckeyes closely this year, but the Buckeyes suck in the red zone. They’re good in the Tressel sense- 9th in the nation in scoring percentage (92% conversion), meaning they don’t go scoreless. But to be a dominant and premier team nationally, you have to score touchdowns in the red zone- and that’s where the Buckeyes have failed miserably this year.

The Buckeyes’ red zone performance consists of 12 touchdowns and 12 field goals, for a 1 to 1 touchdown-to-field goal ratio. To compare that metric to the teams ranked above them in the BCS, the only team close is Alabama with roughly a 2 to 1 ratio (21 TD’s, 9 FG’s). After Alabama, it’s just plain silly as you see in the table below. Silliest of all is Oklahoma who has a 15 to 1 ratio (46 touchdowns to 3 field goals).

With an All-American at running back, quality wide receivers, and at least a little talent on the O-line, these red zone numbers are completely unacceptable. In fact, there’s too much talent here to pin this lack of production on the players. Instead, the coaches have to take the brunt of blame- and specifically the head coach.

This is the area of the field where Tressel’s conservatism really ramps up (or down as it were). Tressel’s mantra of play good defense and mistake-free offense is a formula that works if the goal is to challenge for conference championships. In order to win national championships, this team has to take more chances on offense and be more aggressive in the red zone (2002 being the obvious exception).

The second figure is 72nd: Ohio State ranks 72nd nationally in sacks with 15 total (1.67 per game). Compared to the teams ahead of the Buckeyes in the BCS, Ohio State ranks second to last in this category, ahead of Oklahoma State at 1.22 per game and behind Utah at 1.89 per game. There were questions about the defensive line this year following the departure of sack machine Vernon Gholston (14 sacks all by himself last year), but expectations were higher than were they’ve performed. Lawrence Wilson having his season cut short again doesn’t help, but it’s appropriate for a serious evaluation of the line play at the end of the season. This also brings me to…

The third figure is 95th: Ohio State ranks 95th nationally in sacks allowed (22 sacks given up or 2.44 per game). For comparison sake, Texas is 63rd with 1.89 sacks allowed per game. Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Penn State are all giving up less than one sack per game. The Buckeyes’ total has to be tempered by four or five unnecessary sacks taken by TP, but still ugly. If the line can’t pass protect, the team isn’t going to win big games.

All three of these statistics point to not only a personnel issue but more importantly, a program issue. Both lines need to be reevaluated at the end of the season. It’s not going to be an easy fix- the problem is multi-faceted between player selection, schemes, and player development. Tressel is going to need to make some changes- specifically, he’s going to need to shake up the Tressel-Bollman-Daniels offensive team somehow- either restructure responsibilities or make a more drastic move. If they’re selecting the right players, they’re not developing like they should so that needs to be addressed. If they’re missing on players recruiting-wise, they need to evaluate their recruiting principles. No matter what, change must happen for this team to get better.

Knowing that Tressel has education in his blood, he’ll probably be the person most critical of the ‘08 performance, and hopefully he’ll come to the right conclusions about what needs to be done. But for this season, it’s a story of what could have been, and evidence of how rare trips to the championship are. Buckeyes fans took for granted the return trip last year, but have been given a good dose of perspective this year.

No seriously. Ok, “fear” is a little strong. Maybe “don’t laugh at first mention” for the Big Ten. The national reputation of the Big Ten this year is somewhere between Paris Hilton and Russell Crowe, and not without reason.

Anytime a conference has most or all of their traditional powers down, the rep is going to take some lumps nationally. And with Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan a collective 11-16 (5-12 in the conference), that is definitely the case for the Big Ten. The flipside that everyone is missing though is that with the decline of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan has come a resurgence at Michigan State, Penn State, Minnesota, and Northwestern. Whether or not that resurgence is sustainable remains to be seen, but for now suspend any disbelief and assume that to be the case.

Easier to assume is that Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan will rebound.

No matter what you think of Juice Williams and Ron Zook, Illinois has players. They’re underachieving this year but as long as Zook continues to recruit the way he has, he’s at least within range of 8 or 9 wins every year.

The Badgers are obviously going through a transition post Barry Alvarez. Some chinks in the armor have appeared for Bret Bielema and who knows if those will lead to the armor falling off and Bret standing on the sideline naked (deleted). Wisconsin also has dealt this year with the fact that a veteran quarterback, even a crappy Wisconsin veteran quarterback, is necessary to win in the Big Ten. Allan Evridge unfortunately is not that crappy veteran Badger QB that they need.

Then there’s Michigan. Cute, sweet, Wolverines. Despite my hate for Michigan, I have respect for the program- the tradition and the history. But sweet Jesus- that’s an awful football team. They’re obviously suffering from a gross absence of talent this year plus the lumps D-Rod is taking adjusting to the Big Ten. Don’t you think in the quiet moments at night when Rodriguez is tucking himself in for the night that he’s double-taking on what the Big Ten really is like vs. what he thought it would be like coming from the Big East? I sure do. Still, Rodriguez will find success once he gets some D-I players into that program.

So, if you assume Illinois will hover on the high side of mediocrity, that Wisconsin will find a QB next year, and that eventually RichRod will get Michigan going again, plus Mark Dantonio will keep Sparty competitive, that Tom Bradley will keep Penn State going after Joepa retires/retires from this planet, and that either Tim Brewster will make Minnesota look more like year two under him than year one, or that Pat Fitzgerald has finally figured out how to win at Northwestern, that’s a pretty good conference. Forget pretty good, that’s a very good conference. Ohio State (I assumed they will still be good- how arrogant of me), Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota and/or Northwestern. That’s a conference that would go seven teams deep in the quality department which is easily as good as the SEC or the Big XII are this year.

Another variable to consider is quarterback play. The Big XII clearly is benefiting from top tier veteran QB play this year. More so than any other conference in a long time. That and the fact that the big conference games are all back-loaded in the schedules. When those QB’s are gone, the cycle may move (back) to average for the Big XII.

Both Graham Harrell and Chase Daniel are seniors. That matters less for Texas Tech where QB’s are plug ‘n play, but that all changes if Mike Leach leaves for greener pastures. Missouri is going to sustain big losses this year and will be a shell next year. Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson, and Todd Reesing are all Juniors. I doubt any of them will leave early (McCoy already said he’s coming back), but if they do take off that’s another hit to the conference.

Quality quarterback play in the SEC is like good Chinese food- it’s out there but you’ve got to know where to find it. The list in the SEC goes three deep and one of those three- John Parker Wilson- is a senior. Matthew Stafford and Tim Tebow are both Juniors so we’ll have to wait and see what they decide for next year.

In that same light, Curtis Painter and C.J. Bacher are both Seniors. Painter has done a lot for Purdue but they might be best served with a fresh start next year. Bacher has been the starter at Northwestern since ‘nam but the backup Mike Kafka is only a Junior and has proven to be at least serviceable. Brian Hoyer is a Senior at Michigan State but Freshman Kirk Cousins can at least fill in, possibly improve. The bigger loss for MSU is everything back Javon Ringer.

Looking at the rest of the Big Ten, Darryll Clark and Juice Williams are both Juniors. Never say never, but I doubt either of these guys will come out early.

If you put all that together, it says the Big Ten is building for an improved 2009. I sure hope so- I don’t know if I want to see another 2008.

You’re welcome.

Along the path of premature speculation (which is never a good idea) and with the first BCS poll out, it’s time to take an early look at who’s got what left and who’s likely to be in the BCS championship at the end of the season. This isn’t an effort to predict the exact final order, rather an attempt to look at remaining schedules and current positions.

As the cliché goes, Texas and Alabama are in the driver seat (Alabama is on Texas’ lap) for the championship. Should both win out, they’re in, it’s that simple. Simple except that both of them aren’t going to win out, and neither might. Stepping aside from this point, let’s take a look at who’s got the easiest remaining schedule.

# 5 USC. The Trojans don’t have a ranked team left and the combined record of their remaining opponents is 20-20 (good for vision, bad for ‘puters). No non-conference championship game also makes it an easy road.

The PAC-10 has been a colossal disappointment this year and that could very well cost USC a chance at the BCS Championship (still be alive for the AP title). USC is currently 10th in the computers and that stands to get worse, not better. For the Trojans to make it to the title game, they need 3 of the 4 teams ahead of them to lose, and probably all four just to be safe. It’s highly possible that should # 6 Georgia win out (they won’t), they’ll jump USC. They also need Ohio State to win out. If the Buckeyes lose to Penn State this weekend and/or Illinois down the road, the Trojans sole “quality win” evaporates into thin air. They could conceivably be 15th or lower in the computer polls by the end of the season. Still, USC will win their remaining games so expect them to be in the discussion at the end of the season.

# 3 Penn State. PSU has the second easiest path on three fronts- first, they’ve only got four games left vs. five or six for other teams. Second, the only real test they have left is the night road game at Ohio State this weekend. Third, and like USC, no conference championship game to contend with.

A road game at Iowa plus finishing at home with Indiana and Michigan State should be easy wins (based on past performance anyways). The Nits are 7th in the computers so they’re not going to jump Texas or Alabama. So in order for them to reach the title game, they’re going to need either Texas or Alabama to lose and probably will need Oklahoma with another loss to keep from getting jumped by them.

After USC and Penn State, the schedules are markedly more difficult.

Third easiest path has to go to…(gulp)…# 9 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are going to have to overcome a huge bias in the media in order to make it to the title game, which isn’t likely to happen. Consider that the toughest game left on the schedule for Ohio State is Penn State at home this week. After that, they’ve got an improved Northwestern team and a declining Illinois team, both on the road, before finishing at home with abysmal Michigan.

The good news for the Buckeyes is that the computers love them- 5th overall. The bad news is because of the aforementioned media bias, the Buckeyes aren’t getting in ahead of a one-loss Texas, Oklahoma, or a two-loss Alabama, Georgia, or Florida.

Next in line has to be # 2 Alabama. A road game at # 13 LSU stands alone in a list of final competitors that have a combined record of 18-16. The Crimson Tide will also have to beat either Georgia or Florida in the SEC Championship game. Florida has some questions and ‘Bama’s already beaten Georgia handily, so that game should be too scary. The risk for Alabama is they’re a very young team and it’s quite likely they’ll have a letdown at some point, perhaps even this week @ Tennessee where Phil Fulmer is fighting for his job. Plus Alabama’s DT Terrence Cody will be out with an ankle injury.

# 10 Florida has a slate full of teams with winning records, with the exception of 3-4 Citadel. Road games at Georgia and Florida State, plus either Alabama or LSU in the SEC Championship game should they be fortunate enough to get there.

# 4 Oklahoma has a pretty easy path with their toughest games (Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State) at the end of the schedule. By then Texas Tech should be a shell of what they are now and Oklahoma State will likely have a loss already to Texas. The problem that OU has is that they need Texas to lose two conference games in order to get to the Big XII championship game, plus they need to beat Oklahoma State. They’ve certainly got the team to do it, but hard to imagine Texas losing and letting them in.

# 13 LSU also is looking pretty good. Sure they’ve got Georgia and Alabama on the schedule still, but both of those games are at home. Besides those two, Tulane, Troy, Mississippi, and Arkansas also remain (12-14 combined record). Assuming the Tigers run that schedule down, they’ll have Georgia or Florida in the SEC Championship game.

In terms of getting back to the BCS Championship game, LSU’s got an uphill battle. Their computer ranking of 19th will definitely improve if they can beat Georgia, ‘Bama, and Georgia/Florida, but I don’t think they’re getting the kind of quarterback play they need to get it done.

# 7 Georgia has a road trip to LSU, a home date with Florida, home with rival Georgia Tech at the end of the season, plus either Alabama or LSU in the SEC title game should they get that far. With the Bulldogs’ recent performance, it’s hard to believe they’ll get that far.

# 1 Texas has undefeated Oklahoma State at home this weekend followed by road games at Texas Tech and Kansas, sprinkled with Baylor and Texas A&M at home. After that they’ll have to beat either Kansas (again) or Missouri (again) in the Big XII Championship game. The Longhorns have certainly shown that if any team is going undefeated this season, it’s them. Still, it’s going to be tough.

# 6 Oklahoma State has the toughest path with #1 Texas this week on the road, plus a road game at Texas Tech and the finale at home against Oklahoma. If they survive that, they’ll have to get through either Kansas or Missouri in the Big XII title game. Pretty big long shot given the Cowboys’ defense.

You’re welcome.

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Brace yourself for a fall. A mighty, precipitous fall. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are the darling of the polls- 6th in the coaches’ poll and 7th in the Harris Poll. Undefeated, flashy on offense, part of the Big XII lovefest 2008 taking place in the national media, surly head coach…what’s not to love?

Peel back the sheets a little though and the Red Raider pajamas don’t look good. First and most glaring is the body of work- sure they’re undefeated, but over two I-AA teams and a bunch of unranked weaklings. The D-I opponents have a combined 15-21 record and Texas Tech’s schedule is ranked 103rd by Sagarin, 85th strictly ranked by opponents’ win-loss record.

The statistical look-see bears similar results. Number one in pass offense sounds great, but Texas Tech is 68th in rush offense so hardly a balanced attack. Worse yet, they’re a horrific 103rd in pass defense. That doesn’t bode well for any future stretch, but is particularly bad when three of the top 13 passing offenses are still on the schedule (Oklahoma- 3rd, Kansas- 6th, Texas- 13th). The Red Raiders are also 50% on field goals and 104th in net punting.

And speaking of future opponents, the remaining schedule includes # 23 Kansas, # 1 Texas, # 6 Oklahoma State, and # 4 Oklahoma. If that’s not enough, they’ve also got an improving Baylor team in the last game of the season.

So in case you’re not so good at math…lack of decent previous opposition + questionable defense and special teams + brutal remaining schedule = the DOW on a bad day.

The absolute best case for Texas Tech is they go 3-2 in the final stretch to finish 10-2. More likely is 2-3 with a final record of 9-3 which means another vacancy in the top ten and a weakening of the “Big XII is best” argument. Obviously the worst case is 0-5 with a final record of 7-5 which certainly is within the realm of reasonable probability.

Any way it shakes out, expect Texas Tech to fall quickly and provide more shake up in the BCS top 10.

You’re welcome.

The first edition of the BCS came out Sunday evening with little discrepancy about the top two, but plenty of crap after that.

Discrepancies start as early as # 3 Penn State who is 3rd in both human polls but 7th in the computers. It’s safe to assume that this discrepancy will be fully resolved after this weekend when Penn State travels to Ohio State.

USC is surprisingly low in the computers, with an average of 10th vs. their human ranking of 4th/5th. Particularly in the polls that don’t factor margin of victory and factor conference strength (or lack thereof), USC is not as impressive as voters think they are. This is definitely something to watch considering what little competition USC has remaining should three teams end the season with one loss.

Oklahoma State is not getting human love in the eyes of the computers. The Cowboys are 3rd in the computers but 8th in both human polls. Even more interesting, Oklahoma State is the highest ranked Big XII team in the computers after Texas, but the humans have the Cowboys behind both Oklahoma and Texas Tech.

On the flip side of that Big XII paradox is Texas Tech who is 6th/7th by the humans, but 11th in the computers.

Not surprisingly, Ohio State is getting some “accrued negative bias” after the last two years. Their computer average is 5th yet both human polls have them at 10th for a BCS “average” of 9th overall. Reiterating the Penn State comment above, it’s safe to say this will be sorted out after this coming weekend.

On the flip side of that bias is the Florida Gators who are getting plenty of love from SEC loving voters. U of F is 6th in Harris, 7th in USA Today but a stunning 12th in the computers. That begs for an analysis of how good Florida really is based on their body of work and not their reputation.

Also getting a healthy SEC bump is LSU. Les Miles’ crew is 11th in both human polls but a staggering 19th in the computer polls. Again- under no circumstances should there be that wide of a spread between the two.

Finally, South Florida is also getting a surprising bump in the polls. The Bulls are 14th in both human polls but 23rd in the computer polls. Funny enough too, South Florida is one spot ahead of a team they lost to at home (Pittsburgh) just two weeks ago).

You’re welcome.

The stock market has seen record losses over the last few days and many a baby boomer are clutching their nest eggs tightly with one hand, while holding a bat in the other (and they’re not afraid to use that bat). We’re here to help. Red’s 401k is down about 35% year to date so I feel your pain. Fortunately for me, my retirement’s still a couple of decades away, or at the very least by the end of Obama’s 4th term in office, so we can sit this panic out. Besides, we’re hoping this whole internet thing will take off by then and the blogeth will delivereth.

Back to the boomers. Despite the plunging market, there are plenty of good stock opportunities to take advantage of- buy low, sell high as the saying goes. The trick is to have the intestinal fortitude (ie. stones) to buy into such a market. And you also need the disposable income to do so. I don’t exactly have disposable income at the moment- actually indisposable debts (aka two children). So in place of investing real money, the virtual me is going to invest virtual dollars in some stocks and see how they fare over the next six to twelve months. And you can watch and poke fun at the virtual losses or gains.

Feel free to play along at home with real money, just don’t come after me if and when they repossess your carpet. I conjured up $50,000 of virtual money for this little experiment.

In order to pick the stocks, I tried to keep the methodology simple- traditional blue-chip companies that have very low debt (aka lots of cash on hand), good market position, and low stock prices. Fortunately, all but one of the stocks I checked are currently at 52-week lows so that made the last hurdle a non-issue. I bought a total of 1,131 shares in companies like IBM, GE, Pepsico, 3M and McDonald’s.

The two metrics I used to analyze the stocks included the debt to equity ratio and the price to earnings ratio.

I’ll track the stock prices weekly and report back the gain or loss. Hopefully through our pain or gain, we’ll help heal your psyche.

You’re welcome.

Six games into the season for the Ohio State Buckeyes and still several questions loom. This team has not been the juggernaut on offense that most expected and has shown surprising weaknesses on defense. The comeback win in Madison last Saturday evening pretty well answered the question of whether or not the team has any heart; still remains to be seen whether they can dial up intensity when they need it though. With TP at QB and # 28 at tailback, that seems to be much less of a concern than earlier in the season.

photo by Andy Manis, AP

The most glaring issue with this Ohio State team is red zone offensive production. I’ll leave it to people like Jeff Amey over at the Ozone to weigh in on how much of the problem is play-calling and how much is execution, but the numbers don’t lie. Of the teams in the Coaches’ top 12, Ohio State ranks 7th in scoring percentage (touchdowns and field goals combined vs. attempts) but is dead last in terms of touchdown productivity.

For comparison sake, consider that # 1 Oklahoma has 24 scores in the red zone, 23 touchdowns and 1 field goal for a TD-FG ratio of 23 to 1. Ohio State has 16 red zone scores- 8 touchdowns, 8 field goals for a 1 to 1 ratio. In fact, the teams closest to Ohio State (LSU and Alabama) still have a 2 to 1 TD to FG ratio.

It’s almost as if Ohio State treats the red zone as if they’re in overtime and the opposing team missed a field goal on their first possession. In that situation, above all else, you avoid mistakes to preserve the game-winning field goal. In regulation, that’s an extreme mindset to take. More to the point, I believe that the conservative play calling feeds an underlying mental passivity for the Ohio State offensive players and takes away an edge.

As the saying goes, the field does shrink exponentially in the red zone because the defense has to cover so much less depth. The option counteracts that offensively by stretching the width of the field from sideline to sideline. Hopefully with Terrelle Pryor, Tressel and Bollman will use the option to soften their conservativism. I’m not suggesting they swing too far in the other direction, just find a happy place in the middle.

This subconscious affect undoubtedly bleeds into the psyche outside of the red zone. Ohio State rarely displays aggressiveness or any offensive continuity after the first series of any game.

Another glaring area of concern is the play of both lines. The play of the defensive line is by far the weakness of the defense and the biggest reason why this defense is top 25 instead of top 5 (like last year). The defensive line simply has not been able to get enough pressure on the opposing quarterback to allow the back seven to play in space like they need to. A look at the sack production of the top 12 teams bears this out. Ohio State ranks second only to LSU as the worst sack-producing unit of the top 12 teams. This is made worse by the fact that LSU has only played 4 games and OSU has played 6. If you also consider Georgia has only played 5 games and USC only 4, that really separates Ohio State followed by Alabama as woefully inadequate in sack production.

As the table indicates below, the offensive line play is also falling short. Again, comparing the top 12 teams in the coaches poll, Ohio State is far and away the worst performer in protecting the quarterback. To put it in even more perspective, the Buckeyes rank 106th nationally in this metric. Averaging nearly 3 sacks per game is unacceptable for any team with aspirations of a conference championship, let alone a national championship.

The bottom line unfortunately for Ohio State fans is, without material improvement in red zone production and line play, expect the Buckeyes to lose to Penn State at a minimum, and possibly to Illinois and Michigan State as well.

You’re welcome.

The Big XII switched spots with the SEC this week taking the “4 teams in the top 10″ banner. Specifically in the Coaches Poll- Oklahoma at 1, Missouri at 3, Texas at 5, and Texas Tech at 8. The biggest fraud of these so far is Texas Tech, but I’ll get to them in a second. First, it’s worthwhile analyzing the Sagarin strength of schedule of the Big XII teams.

As a reference point, consider that # 2 Alabama has a strength of schedule at 39th; The # 9 team USC is SOS’d at 7th; the # 10 team Georgia is ranked at 29th; and LSU has a strength of schedule at 114th.

The leader of the Big XII pack, Oklahoma, has a pretty limp ranking at 78th, barely evidence of a challenge to them, but superior to the rest of their Big XII peers. Oklahoma has been very dominant early on and statistically very strong. Put it in the context of who they’ve beaten though (nobody).

Texas is next with the 117th ranked strength of schedule. Texas’ quality win is a 52-10 win over a 2-2 Arkansas team. Texas is getting lit up through the air on defense, but that’s partially because they’re getting ahead of opponents and then they’re forced to throw. Still, 100th in pass offense against inferior competition isn’t going to get it done.

Texas Tech is next “toughest” with the 129th ranked strength of schedule. The Red Raiders’ “quality win” is a 35-19 victory on the road against a 2-2 Nevada team. Texas Tech is 97th in pass defense, 61st in overall defense, and 66th in rushing offense, all against a wet paper bag schedule. TT also has the distinction of playing not one but two I-AA teams this season- 2-2 Umass and 2-2 Eastern Washington. If that doesn’t point to the ridiculous nature of early season polls, and the agendas that several national writers have, I don’t know what does.

Finally, Missouri trails with the 142nd ranked strength of schedule. That means 21 Division I-AA teams have a tougher schedule thus far than the Missouri Tigers. Missouri’s “quality win” remains their season opening 52-42 win over Illinois. Missouri also struggles against the pass (must be a Big XII virus) at 111th and have the 79th ranked defense overall. Considering who they’ve played, that’s a serious problem and should make voters pause before putting that at # 3 on their ballots (myself included).

What does all this mean at this point in the season? Not much. It means some or all of these teams aren’t necessarily as good as their ranking right now. It’s likely the Big XII will sort itself out with Missouri @ Texas, Texas @ Oklahoma, Texas @ Texas Tech, Texas Tech @ Oklahoma, plus the Big XII championship game still on the schedule.

You’re welcome.

Not that it impacts the national championship picture, but if you looked at the polls closely this week, you may have noticed an anomaly in the AP poll. USC, Georgia, and Florida all were ahead of Ohio State, all lost and remained ranked ahead of the Buckeyes despite OSU winning. That’s not the anomaly, that’s to be expected considering how Ohio State has played this year, the championship losses, the fear of the vest, etc., etc…

The anomaly is Auburn quietly moving ahead of Ohio State, going from # 15 last week to # 13 this week. You could certainly justify putting Auburn ahead of the Buckeyes last week after Auburn’s 5-point loss to LSU at home. That’s a quality loss compared to the Buckeyes’ blowout at the hands of USC. But that’s not what happened.

Instead, enough AP voters were impressed by Auburn’s dominating 2-point win over a 1-3 Tennessee Volunteer team to vote them ahead of the Buckeyes. Impressed enough in fact that Auburn went from 5 points behind the Buckeyes to 31 points ahead. Objective journalists just voting their conscience. Riiiiiiiight.

Calling a spade a spade- It’s the expected bias against Ohio State for the past two National Championship transgressions. Or more to the point- it’s the “oh shit” realization by the AP voters that teams ahead of Ohio State look once again to start dropping like flies so “we better start building in some buffer”. Again- I don’t necessarily have a problem with where the Buckeyes are in the polls, I just find it unprofessional based on the movement from last week to this week by so-called unbiased “journalists”.

No matter, the AP poll means exactly nothing in terms of the BCS, having been replaced by the Harris poll in the super computer calculations. And maybe because of that, the move looks even more desparate. Incidentally, the Harris poll debuted this week with Auburn # 13, Ohio State # 14; perhaps Ed Harris (of the Harris poll) has friends in the media?

You’re welcome.

Leave it to the Beavers. The scene in Corvallis, Oregon last night was simply stunning. Breathtakingly, eye-openingly, stunning.

In yet another example that college football can just as easily be affected by emotion as it can by talent or coaching, Oregon State thoroughly dominated the near-unanimous # 1 Trojans. It wasn’t a fluke or an accident, it was pure and simple an ass-kicking.

After two blowout wins for USC, the Pac-10 schedule was expected to be a march toward coronation. Next stop, National Championship. Maualuga, here’s the Butkus. Jeff Byers, here’s your Rimington. Sanchez, the Heisman’s yours next year, this year if you really, really want it.

Oregon State had been at best inconsistent; at worst hapless, up until last night. An opening season loss at Stanford by 8. A game two blowout at Penn State 45-14. A game three win over a weaponless Hawaii.

USC was favored by 25 points and expected to roll against an unranked, inferior team. Not so much.

The best headline I’ve seen this morning is from Trojanwire.com. The headline simply reads: “Jacquizzed”.

Jacquizzed indeed. The Trojans have five-star recruits washing towels back at their training facility. Oregon State had the 52nd ranked recruiting class in the country last year according to Rivals.com, sandwiched just between Baylor and Iowa. OSU had one 5-star recruit, and the undoing for the Trojans was a 3-star, five and half foot (barely) true Freshman Jacquizz Rodgers. Rodgers gashed USC for 186 yards on 37 carries.

You just got Jacquizzed bitches

Rodgers made use of his fleet feet by constantly cutting back against the speed, and dare I say overpursuit of the USC defense. Both lines were dominated by OSU and the Beavers were able to convert several key 3rd downs through the air when they needed to, despite the erratic throwing of Junior QB Lyle Moevao. Moevao’s passes were so erratic that there could have easily been 4 or 5 interceptions, including a tipped pass at the end zone at the end of the 1st half. That pass instead landed in the hands of James Rodgers (Jacquizz’ older brother) for a touchdown. Sometimes that’s how the ball bounces.

A side bar to the Rodgers family: what was the thought process between naming one son “James” and the other “Jacquizz”? Just curious. No matter, it’s my new favorite adverb.

And getting back to emotion, perhaps no other team in America is as emotional as USC. And last night they were emotionless. They looked like they were in a fog- questioning who was slapping them in the face, wondering why receivers were dropping passes, and trying to figure out how the hell to tackle the diminutive and elusive Jacquizz.

USC consistently relies on loose, fun practices and the ability to “turn it on” between the lines. The trouble is that great teams, even the best teams have trouble consistently “turning it on”. And USC has certainly proven that with last night’s loss, last year’s shocker to Stanford, and the loss the year before to the same Oregon State team.

It’s one of those take the good with the bad things. The good is very good; most teams would make multiple deals with the devil (and do) to get a piece of it. But the bad is staggering. And yet, of all the USC fans I met out in L.A. two weeks ago, only two seem to be tinted with any dose of humility after such events.

Where to go next is the question for the Trojans. Sanchez made mistakes you would expect a first-year starter to make last night, but clearly was favoring his injured knee so there could be trouble there. Linebacker Rey Maualuga left the game with a sprained knee. Safety Taylor Mays left the game with an undisclosed chest injury after coughing up blood. Linebacker Brian Cushing broke a bone in his hand. And damaged worst of all was the Trojan Machismo- getting bitchslapped by your younger, much uglier cousin on national TV.

Taking a step back and looking at the Pac-10 landscape, consider that not a single team in the league stands undefeated a mere four weeks into the season. Arizona and Oregon stand at the top of the conference at 3-1. For USC, they’ve got consecutive home games with Oregon and Arizona State coming up and who knows where their heads will be. Assuming Carroll circles the wagons and Maualuga puts the pink thong back on, USC will no doubt roll through the rest of their schedule, and be at the center of the “playing the best football” argument at the end of the season as Matt Hinton so deftly pointed out over at Dr. Saturday.

The effects on the national landscape are profound, just like it was last year. I think it’s a lock now that we’ll have another one-loss team in the national championship. I’ve stated either Oklahoma or Missouri should come through the Big XII untouched but after that, it’s unlikely anyone else will. Either because of the quality of opponents or the mediocrity of offenses (you decide) in the SEC, it’s highly unlikely an undefeated team will come from there. It certainly is possible that a team like Penn State could run the table in the Big Ten but would you bet any material sums of money on that? I sure wouldn’t.

After that, who are we looking at? Wake Forest? South Florida again? Utah/BYU/TCU? We’re headed for more BCS trouble, that’s where we’re headed.

You’re welcome.

Without further ado, we present to you the first installment of the 2008 Ocho. We wanted to wait a few weeks so that there were actually some games played before we formed opinions on teams, and we have no problem moving teams drastically up or down based on the strength of wins, not just on losses.

We differ from the AP and Coaches in several places. No argument from us on USC being # 1. Even with only two games played for them, they’ve got the best resume and a scary collection of talent. We like Oklahoma at # 2 also. That’s where the similarities end.

We think Georgia is still getting too much credit from the national media and Missouri is getting short-changed, based on results on the field. We like Florida better than Georgia, again based on the body of work, though both teams have visible weaknesses.

Alabama is a little low in our opinion, but certainly will have a short stay in the Ocho if they lose to Georgia this week.

Penn State is probably suffering at the hands of the Big Ten bias, but if you look at how they’ve played and the statistics, they’re definitely getting shortchanged in both the AP and Coaches’. If Penn State beats Illinois decisively this weekend, we’re moving them into the top 5.

You’re welcome.