Coaches Poll to go Double Secret in 2010

May 28th, 2009 by Red Renee

Rich Rod Roller Coaster

The list of items to blog about from the Thursday AP article regarding college football’s coaches poll going covert in 2010 is vast. The change happening in 2010 is that the final Coaches’ poll will be secret- that is to say that we won’t get a chance to see the coaches’ final ballot as we do today.

The American Football Coaches Association (AFCA) asked Gallup to study the poll and make recommendations about how to make it more credible and accurate. This alone provides further proof that it’s not that the powers in college football don’t care about fixing the game, it’s that they have no f-ing idea what the problems really are.

Never mind that coaches will be the first to admit that they don’t regularly watch games of teams in their own conference unless they’re playing them the following week, let alone games of other teams out of conference that are top-25 caliber. Never mind that little detail, instead, let’s hire Gallup to look at the “figures”.

I imagine a room full of old white guys and the conversation going a lil’ something like this:

Thurston: “My great great grandson tells me our poll isn’t on the up-and-up.”

Winthorp: “Hogwash. I just received a telegram from Bear Bryant and….has anyone seen my spectacles?”

Thurston: “Nevertheless, we should hire Gallup to look into the matter.”

Winthorp: “Here, here. Whiskey Sours for all!”

Here’s a modern day re-creation between me and a buddy of mine of that same meeting as we’re driving down the street (the car is a metaphor for college football):

Me: “Bro- the number 5 button on my car stereo presets is busted.”

Bro: “Dude- your car’s on fire.”

Me: “Bro- seriously, I can’t program any stations on the number 5 button anymore.”

Bro: “Dude, seriously, your car’s on fire. We’re going to die.”

Me: “Bro you are so funny. I think I’ll hire an Asian dude as a consultant to look into my stereo issue and come up with a couple solutions.”

Bro: (catches on fire)

By all means AFCA, go ahead and cloak the final coaches’ poll in a shroud of darkness; that oughta right the ship. Morons.

Other recommendations by Gallup include looking into reducing the poll to 10 or 15 teams plus eliminating the pre-season poll. Any amount over $1 that the AFCA paid for the study should be classified as a “financial gift” for tax purposes. What a waste of time and money.

Putting a bow on the entire ridiculous exercise was Michigan Coach Rich Rodriguez. When asked about the change, Rich Rod responded:

“By keeping things confidential, I think there will be less hidden agendas.”

First of all RR- it’s fewer hidden agendas, not less hidden agendas. Secondly, by keeping the votes confidential it increases the chances for hidden agendas, not decreases it.

All of this is precisely why nothing gets fixed in college football and why I’m half a step from declaring my allegiance for the NFL- free agency, primadonna players, useless pre-season games, sucky overtime rules all be damned.

You’re welcome.

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Posted in college football, The BCS Sucks, Piss Off, Sports | 70 Comments »

Bron-tastic

May 22nd, 2009 by Red Renee

Jordanesque. I think that’s the most appropriate way to describe Lebron James’ game-winning shot Friday night. Down 1-0 in the series, down two points at home with exactly one second remaining, Lebron took the inbounds pass and nailed the game-winning three, with two defenders in his face.

The shot was not just a game-winner but a series-salvager. Had they lost, the Cavs would have been down 0-2 heading to Orlando for games 3 & 4. A sweep would have been imminent, but now Cleveland has new life thanks to the King. Simply amazing.

Sports Videos, News, Blogs

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Videos, Sports | 78 Comments »

How Much Weed Would B.J. Need if B.J. Did Need Weed?

April 2nd, 2009 by Red Renee

BJ Raji
AP Photo

According to reports, potential top 5 DL pick B.J. Raji failed his drug test at the NFL combine. Gosh, that’s awfully hard to believe when you watch this video from Raji on set with the NFL Network crew during the combine. He may very well have been high for this interview.

Hope you have a high-flyin weekend.

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Posted in NFL Draft, Sports | 104 Comments »

Catching up on the Buckeyes

March 2nd, 2009 by Red Renee

Ohio Stadium Aerial
These days can’t come soon enough…

It was pretty busy last week in Buckeye nation, time to get caught up.

First and most importantly the women’s hoops team wrapped up a share of their 5th straight Big Ten conference title. I don’t follow women’s basketball but that’s a tremendous accomplishment in any sport- well done. Hopefully they’ll carry that into the tournament and do a little better than past years.

The other bit of good news on the Buckeye front is injured and paralyzed DB Tyson Gentry is regaining some movement in his legs, this according to an article in the Morning Journal. Fantastic news that hopefully will continue to get better.

The NFL combine wrapped up and it was mixed results for the Buckeyes. I put up a couple of posts last week but to finish it off, the final day of results went split. Malcolm Jenkins definitely disappointed running a slower than expected 40 but rebounded a bit with the best time of the combine in the 3-cone drill (6.59 seconds) and one of the best 20-yard shuttle times (4.07 seconds).

The story for the Buckeyes at the combine was how the lower-profile guys really helped themselves. Beanie, Laurinaitis, and Jenkins all were at or below expectations. Brian Robiskie, Brian Hartline, Marcus Freeman and Donald Washington all made significant impressions and no doubt made themselves some money.

As I detailed, Robiskie had a fantastic combine putting up decent test numbers and showing his superb route-running and pass-catching abilities. Robo is going to make some franchise very happy come next year.

Brian Hartline really opened some eyes in Indianapolis. While obviously not blessed with tremendous straight-line speed, Hartline ripped off a 2nd best time in the 3-cone drill (6.65 seconds), 4th best receiver time in the 20-yard shuttle (4.12 seconds) and the best overall time in the 60-yard shuttle (10.92 seconds). That goes along with his tapes which show his ability to run good routes and his overall toughness.

Also as I detailed, Marcus Freeman had a very good combine. Excellent drill numbers and reports indicated that he was equally impressive in his interviews.

The biggest surprise for the Buckeyes was Donald Washington. With the baggage that Washington carries in off-the-field issues, Washington needed to show well at the combine and did. Setting aside a disappointing 40 time, Washington delivered combine best numbers in both the vertical jump and broad jump. Both were numbers that set him in the top 5 for the entire decade for all combine participants. 11′3″ in particular in the broad jump is just sick. Washington clearly possesses tremendous physical gifts and hopefully for him, the right team will take a chance on him and keep him out of trouble.

Here’s an article recapping draft status of each of the players in case you want to see where they stand.

Never to early to look to 2010 football recruiting; here’s a good post on what to look for in a class that will be much smaller than ‘09.

And finally, It’s March which means the men’s hoops team is on the bubble again. Strap on your seat belt.

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Buckeye Nation, college football, Sports | No Comments »

CU in Chicago 4 Sure ;)

January 30th, 2009 by Red Renee

Lingerie Football League

For men (and women) hoping to see the Lingerie Bowl this year, you’re out of luck. The event was canceled due to a dispute over clothing.

The game, which was to be held at a nudist report in Tampa was called off because resort management didn’t want to require spectators to wear clothes, and apparently some of the lingerie football players weren’t comfortable playing in front of a bunch of nude men. It’s a pretty unfair stereotype (albeit likely true) to assume that sitting nude watching a bunch of women running around in lingerie, men would no doubt “call an audible” if you know what I mean (and I know you do).

Never fear though, September 4th of this year, the Lingerie Football League officially kicks off in Chicago with visiting Miami coming into town at 8pm. The league features 10 teams and a 20-week schedule with two teams playing each week. The “Chicago Bliss” is getting my early nod for “scantily clad team I’m rooting for”, but I’ll also keep an eye on the “San Diego Seduction”.

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Best of the Web, Sports | 5 Comments »

Simply the Best

December 29th, 2008 by Red Renee

Failure

“It was just one of those years it all kind of came together.” - OT Jeff Backus (Michigan grad)

Indeed Jeff. Indeed. If you can’t be good, be good at being bad.

Let us be among the many to congratulate the Detroit Lions on sweet perfection. The Lions are the first team in NFL history to finish 0-16, doing so by losing today at Green Bay 31-21. I detailed the importance of this accomplishment last week for the city of Detroit, but I didn’t think I would actually see it happen.

Going winless during a 16-game schedule in the salary cap era is no simple accomplishment. It takes futility from the top down- from the President to the GM, football operations, coaching staff, and of course the players. And it was no statistical fluke either- the Lions finished 27th in scoring offense and dead last in scoring defense. Not surprisingly, the Lions didn’t place a single player on the Pro Bowl roster either.

In other NFL news, here’s the recap of the Buffalo-New England game. I had the pleasure of driving through the very wind that created havoc in Buffalo and I can attest- it was crazy.

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Fired Coach Walking, Sports | 3 Comments »

On the Brink of Greatness

December 15th, 2008 by Red Renee

Detroit Lions
(Picture: Kirthmon F. Dozier / DFP)

It’s been a rough 2008 in the Motor City. First their mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, aka the “Hip Hop Mayor”, left office amid a stripper party-murder scandal, a sexy text messaging scandal with one of his staff, and felony charges which led to time in jail.

Then the Detroit Tigers took what was expected to be a very promising season and washed it down the crapper with a 74-88 final record. This just five years removed from the worst season in National league history and one game away from being the worst in major league history.

Then there’s the auto bailout, which limps along with hopes that George Bush will now provide the mouth-to-mouth. Oh yeah, and Michigan’s been in a recession for 8 years.

In fairness, the Red Wings did win the Stanley Cup, or so the 8 or so remaining hockey fans have told me.

Which all brings me to…the Detroit Lions. Here they stand, on the precipice of something that has never been done by any other NFL team. Not the ‘76 Buccaneers (0-14); not the ‘90 Patriots (1-15); not even the ‘91 Colts (1-15). No, the 2008 Lions have a chance to take their place at the head of the list of worst teams in the history of the NFL by finishing 0-16.

The Lions stand today at 0-14. They possess the 27th ranked scoring defense and are dead last in scoring offense (32nd). The remaining schedule isn’t completely unmanageable- home for the 7-7 Saints, then closing out on the road with the 5-9 Packers. Better get it done against the Saints though; I hear Lambeau field is a tough place to play in December.

Even the owner of “0and16.com” has his website pointed to the Lions home page (tried it, I did). Nothing like kicking a city while they’re down, but should the Lions lose their remaining two games, they’ll not only memorialize the worst season in NFL history, but quite possibly the worst year for any American city, that is until next year.

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Sports | 12 Comments »

Be Careful What You Wish For

December 3rd, 2008 by Red Renee

Fiesta Bowl
Should Ohio State get a BCS nod when bowls are announced Sunday, and it looks like they will, their likely opponent as of today would be Texas. That in and of itself presents significant challenges but also has larger ramifications on the Big Ten as a whole.

For Ohio State, the national reputation is somewhere between Paris Hilton and Paula Abdul these days (you decide which is worse). With consecutive losses in the national championship game and a high profile loss to USC this year, the Buckeyes need some redemption in their bowl game to repair their rep. Incidentally, it’s funny how reputations work- Oklahoma has lost consecutive Fiesta Bowls and four of their last five bowl games and yet they still walk on water. But I digress…

There are a few teams Ohio State doesn’t want to play in a bowl game, and Texas is one of them. Texas has a Heisman-caliber quarterback, veteran line and wide receivers, run-stopping defense, and a secondary that’s questionable but won’t be tested. Add to that the outside shot for Texas to get the AP national championship and that’s a recipe for another unhappy Columbus winter.

Worse than that are the potential implications for the entire Big Ten. Ohio State into the BCS moves each Big Ten team up a bowl and that doesn’t look like it’s going to end well. Obviously subject to change but for your consideration are the Big Ten bowl pairings with Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.

By my estimation the Big Ten will likely go 0-5 with 2 “push” games. That means 2-5 or 3-4 is best case scenario; it could be as bad as 0-7. Even the most ardent Big Ten supporter would have to agree that the conference would be underdogs according to Vegas in most of those matchups.

Now consider what would happen if Ohio State didn’t make the BCS and instead played Georgia in the Citrus Bowl (Capital One Bowl):

In this scenario I think the Big Ten would be looking at 1-3 with 3 pushes. I know that doesn’t sound great, but I’m looking for baby steps here. That at least leaves the possibility of a 4-3 or dare I say 5 wins and 2 losses.

I also like a potential matchup with Georgia much better than Texas. Ohio State tends to match up much better with one-back teams vs. teams with multiple backs. Knowshon Moreno is obviously one hell of a running back, but he was held under a hundred yards five times this season and I think Ohio State could get close to that. Ohio State has a very good secondary which should be able to hold up to the pressure of Matthew Stafford and the talented Georgia Wide Receivers (namely MoMass and A.J. Green). Georgia also hasn’t gotten a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this year, which plays into Ohio State’s favor since the O-line needs all the help they can get.

The games will be announced this Sunday so time will tell. The Fiesta Bowl knows Ohio State fans travel very well, as good as any other team in the nation, and at the end of it all, college football is about money. I don’t think it would be too bad though for the Buckeyes to get one more snub this year and take a chance on a little lower profile game- for the good of their psyche and the good of the conference.

You’re welcome.

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Posted in The BCS Sucks, Sports | 7 Comments »

Big XII Tough Guys

December 2nd, 2008 by Red Renee

Sack Race

With the Heisman race tightening by the day, reports are that Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell played the second half against Baylor on Saturday with two shattered fingers on his non-throwing hand (aka “the less awesome one”). On Sunday Harrell reportedly underwent four hours of surgery which included seventeen pins and nine plates to correct nine separate breaks. No word if any of the “quarterback microchips” that Mike Leach implants in all his quarterbacks were damaged.

Leach said “Even though [I have] no specific comment, it’s just further evidence on why he should get the Heisman, and to me it’s a no-brainer because I thought he should have gotten it last year.”

Not to be outdone, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford played the second half of the Oklahoma State game Saturday night with torn ligaments in his non-throwing hand (aka “the equally awesome, but less famous hand”). According to the report, Bradford will wear a soft cast Saturday against Missouri and then have surgery next week.

No word if Tim Tebow intends to play Saturday against Alabama with a sympathy cast on his non-throwing hand or with his legs in a burlap sack.

And speaking of the Heisman trophy, and since it’s already been determined by law that a quarterback is to win the award this year, here are the statistics for each of the front-runners. I added in Nate Davis from Ball State in the name of fairness.

My vote goes to Colt McCoy. If you’ve watched Texas all season, you know McCoy carried the offense the first half of the season when the running game was struggling for life. Bradford’s numbers are sick but OU is grossly loaded with NFL talent and I think they’d still be where they are with lesser QB contribution. Tebow is only being mentioned this year because he won last year and Florida is very good. Harrell’s numbers are crazy too, but if weren’t for that defense he’d get the “system QB” label like all his predecessors.

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Posted in Proof (Statistical) That Statistics Don't Matter, Sports | 3 Comments »

The Anatomy of a Collapse

November 17th, 2008 by Red Renee

Troy Trojans
I’m going all CSI Baton Rouge to break down the disaster that took place Saturday night. I’ll set the scene and then give you the details on the horror in case you missed it. 6:24 remaining in the 3rd quarter and the Troy Trojans have a 31-3 lead over mighty LSU (at LSU).

At that exact moment, the light went on for the LSU offense with Jarrett Lee going 5-8 for 47 yards and Freshman QB Jordan Jefferson rushing for his first college touchdown.

Score: 31-10 Troy

Troy gets the ball back with 1:26 left and proceeds to rip off a 1-yard run and two incomplete passes. They punt the ball and, after taking only 78 seconds off the clock, LSU gets the ball with :18 seconds to go in 3Q.

Jarrett Lee again on fire (how little those words have been uttered this year). 4 of 4 for 80 yards with a touchdown pass to Brandon LaFell.

Score: 31-17 Troy

At this point, despite only about a quarter of LSU fans remaining, the momentum had so clearly swung in favor of the Tigers, and yet Troy didn’t want to acknowledge any of that. At least they had some sense to run the fricking ball on the next drive to run some clock down. Sort of.

14:00 minute mark- Troy passes incomplete on 1st down, rushes for 9 yards on 2nd down and 0 yards on 3rd and 1. 4th & 1 from the LSU 40 and Troy decides to go for it. Gutsy attempt to swing momentum back in your favor for Coach Larry Blakeney. Try and “out LesMiles” Les Miles. Unfortunately, the universe simply can’t handle that type of quantum computation and the risk backfired. Troy went incomplete on a 4th down pass giving LSU decent field position and 12:54 left on the clock.

Score: 31-17 Troy

Jarrett Lee on fire again (still, strange to type). 4-4 for 36 yards passing, with Charles Scott and Quinn Johnson getting the rest on the ground. It’s slipping away Troy fans- can you feel it?

Score: 31-24 Troy

Next possession Troy gets a poor kick return and takes over at their own 18 with 10:33 left in the game- an eternity based on how the last ten minutes had elapsed. Time to run the ball and take some time off the clock, right? Wrong.

1st down- pass incomplete. 2nd down- pass complete for 4 yards. 3rd down- pass (of course) intercepted by LSU returned to the Troy 13 yard line. Total elapsed drive time- 62 seconds.

Fortunately, LSU returned to their first half self and their drive stalled out. Field goal attempt good.

Score: 31-27 Troy

Another poor kickoff return and Troy starts their drive at their own 16. After the previous drive, lesson learned right? Run to burn time off the clock or if you’re going to pass, make sure they’re complete. Yeahhhhh….not so much.

1st down- pass incomplete. 2nd down- pass incomplete. 3rd down- and stop me if you’ve already heard this- pass incomplete. Total elapsed time: 35 seconds. Now it’s time for second-guessing:

It’s 4th down, you’re at your own 16 yard line and you’re getting your ass beat in by the defending national champs after dominating them for almost three quarters. Do you a.) punt the ball giving LSU fantastic field position with plenty of time to score the game-winning touchdown, or do you b.) run the ball through the back of the end zone for a safety and take a kick off? Granted, the kick off only gains you about 20 yards and with so much time remaining, probably doesn’t matter.

Troy elected to punt giving the ball back to LSU at the 50 with 7:16 left to play. Seven plays later, Charles Scott goes in for a touchdown.

Score: 34-31 LSU

4:50 left to play- Troy with plenty of time left to salvage the game with a late field goal. One rush and three incomplete passes later, Troy turns the ball over on downs on their own 34. LSU scores again to put the game on ice and finish off 30 straight points for Les Miles’ crew.

When the dust settled, Troy had blown a 28-point lead and managed only four rushes during that 21 minutes or so. An egregious lack of game management by Coach Blakeney, who afterward said:

“If you do what we do, you have to do it all the time. You can’t do it for a half and then lock down with a wishbone in the second half.”

Wishbone certainly would have been extreme, but a few more rushes and LSU may have run out of time for their miraculous comeback. Instead, Troy goes home a loser and the SEC remains as dominant as ever, even if they aren’t really.

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Close Call

October 26th, 2008 by Red Renee

The BCS can take a deep breath. Ohio State is not going to be in the Championship game this year. They weren’t really in danger of making it anyways, but Penn State finally put the Buckeyes out of their misery. Minus two on turnovers and conservative offensive playcalling did the Buckeyes in. Penn State moves on to their last three games which they’ll win and end up playing Texas or an SEC team in the National Championship. For Ohio State, perhaps a trip to the Rose Bowl or with a loss at Illinois, probably to the Citrus Bowl.

More to come on Sunday.

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Breaking down the BCS

October 20th, 2008 by Red Renee

The first edition of the BCS came out Sunday evening with little discrepancy about the top two, but plenty of crap after that.

Discrepancies start as early as # 3 Penn State who is 3rd in both human polls but 7th in the computers. It’s safe to assume that this discrepancy will be fully resolved after this weekend when Penn State travels to Ohio State.

USC is surprisingly low in the computers, with an average of 10th vs. their human ranking of 4th/5th. Particularly in the polls that don’t factor margin of victory and factor conference strength (or lack thereof), USC is not as impressive as voters think they are. This is definitely something to watch considering what little competition USC has remaining should three teams end the season with one loss.

Oklahoma State is not getting human love in the eyes of the computers. The Cowboys are 3rd in the computers but 8th in both human polls. Even more interesting, Oklahoma State is the highest ranked Big XII team in the computers after Texas, but the humans have the Cowboys behind both Oklahoma and Texas Tech.

On the flip side of that Big XII paradox is Texas Tech who is 6th/7th by the humans, but 11th in the computers.

Not surprisingly, Ohio State is getting some “accrued negative bias” after the last two years. Their computer average is 5th yet both human polls have them at 10th for a BCS “average” of 9th overall. Reiterating the Penn State comment above, it’s safe to say this will be sorted out after this coming weekend.

On the flip side of that bias is the Florida Gators who are getting plenty of love from SEC loving voters. U of F is 6th in Harris, 7th in USA Today but a stunning 12th in the computers. That begs for an analysis of how good Florida really is based on their body of work and not their reputation.

Also getting a healthy SEC bump is LSU. Les Miles’ crew is 11th in both human polls but a staggering 19th in the computer polls. Again- under no circumstances should there be that wide of a spread between the two.

Finally, South Florida is also getting a surprising bump in the polls. The Bulls are 14th in both human polls but 23rd in the computer polls. Funny enough too, South Florida is one spot ahead of a team they lost to at home (Pittsburgh) just two weeks ago).

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Polls, Proof (Statistical) That Statistics Don't Matter, Sports | 7 Comments »

Goodbye to another piece of my childhood…

October 12th, 2008 by Mark O.

Growing up in the Philly suburbs, the pro sports championships have been few and far between. And now one of my fondest childhood memories is being torn down. The Spectrum (I refuse to call it the Wachovia Spectrum) has seen it’s last Flyers game.

The Flyers played in the Spectrum against their minor league affiliate, and current Spectrum resident, the Philadelphia Phantoms last night. This marks the last time the Orange and Black will skate there as the building is scheduled to be torn down after the Phantoms’ season ends this winter.

Just as we lament the loss of vintage baseball and football stadiums around the country, this is the one that hits closest to home for me. The Vet was a disaster and I was happy to see it go. Yankee Stadium is a loss but after the renovations in the 70’s it wasn’t really the House that Ruth built anymore. No one, not even Mets fans, will miss Shea. Whenever they get around to moving the Garden it will be an improvement. The Continental Airlines Arena (now the Izod Center) pales in comparison to The Rock.

But the Spectrum, now that was an arena. So small that there isn’t a bad seat in the place, except for the several dozen behind poles. The ceiling is so low Dr. J used to graze it with his ‘fro. And the smells, oh the smells. My favorite memory of the place was during the ‘75 playoffs. My dad got nosebleed tickets to a game and took me and my little brother. We got to see Kate Smith sing “God Bless America” live before the game and the Flyers beat the Islanders en route to winning their second straight cup.

And all throughout the game everyone in the upper tier seats was smoking pot and cigarettes and cigars. At times the smoke was so thick you could barely see the ice. My brother and I kept asking my dad why all those people were sharing a cigarette but he refused to answer. About 10 years later I figured it out for myself. Anyhow, you just can’t buy memories like that anymore. Farewell old friend, or dare I say, “my home, sweet, home!”

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Ten questions I can’t wait to be answered this weekend

October 11th, 2008 by Red Renee

Today’s a travel day for Red and crew so the biggest question I can’t wait to be answered is whether or not the XM radio will deliver the games I need it to. So much to look forward to Saturday, and in chronological order, not order of significance-

1.) Oklahoma -v- Texas at high noon (I like OU)
2.) Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State at 2:30 (Vandy)
3.) Nebraska @ Texas Tech at 3:30 (TT, Nebraska D not there yet)
4.) Tennessee @ Georgia at 3:30 (UGA to win)
5.) Purdue @ Ohio State at 3:30 (OSU better roll)
6.) Notre Dame @ North Carolina at 3:30 (ND going down)
7.) Michigan State @ undefeated Northwestern at 3:30 (I like MSU)
8.) Oklahoma State @ Missouri at 8 (Mizzou big)
9.) Penn State @ Wisconsin (like PSU)

and the night-capper
10.) LSU @ Florida (Florida wins)

I’m on vacation next week but will be checking in from time to time and Mark O. has been generous to pinch hit the rest. Have a great weekend!

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Trouble in the 614: Mid-Season Analysis

October 7th, 2008 by Red Renee

Six games into the season for the Ohio State Buckeyes and still several questions loom. This team has not been the juggernaut on offense that most expected and has shown surprising weaknesses on defense. The comeback win in Madison last Saturday evening pretty well answered the question of whether or not the team has any heart; still remains to be seen whether they can dial up intensity when they need it though. With TP at QB and # 28 at tailback, that seems to be much less of a concern than earlier in the season.

Terrelle Pryor
photo by Andy Manis, AP

The most glaring issue with this Ohio State team is red zone offensive production. I’ll leave it to people like Jeff Amey over at the Ozone to weigh in on how much of the problem is play-calling and how much is execution, but the numbers don’t lie. Of the teams in the Coaches’ top 12, Ohio State ranks 7th in scoring percentage (touchdowns and field goals combined vs. attempts) but is dead last in terms of touchdown productivity.

For comparison sake, consider that # 1 Oklahoma has 24 scores in the red zone, 23 touchdowns and 1 field goal for a TD-FG ratio of 23 to 1. Ohio State has 16 red zone scores- 8 touchdowns, 8 field goals for a 1 to 1 ratio. In fact, the teams closest to Ohio State (LSU and Alabama) still have a 2 to 1 TD to FG ratio.

It’s almost as if Ohio State treats the red zone as if they’re in overtime and the opposing team missed a field goal on their first possession. In that situation, above all else, you avoid mistakes to preserve the game-winning field goal. In regulation, that’s an extreme mindset to take. More to the point, I believe that the conservative play calling feeds an underlying mental passivity for the Ohio State offensive players and takes away an edge.

As the saying goes, the field does shrink exponentially in the red zone because the defense has to cover so much less depth. The option counteracts that offensively by stretching the width of the field from sideline to sideline. Hopefully with Terrelle Pryor, Tressel and Bollman will use the option to soften their conservativism. I’m not suggesting they swing too far in the other direction, just find a happy place in the middle.

This subconscious affect undoubtedly bleeds into the psyche outside of the red zone. Ohio State rarely displays aggressiveness or any offensive continuity after the first series of any game.

Another glaring area of concern is the play of both lines. The play of the defensive line is by far the weakness of the defense and the biggest reason why this defense is top 25 instead of top 5 (like last year). The defensive line simply has not been able to get enough pressure on the opposing quarterback to allow the back seven to play in space like they need to. A look at the sack production of the top 12 teams bears this out. Ohio State ranks second only to LSU as the worst sack-producing unit of the top 12 teams. This is made worse by the fact that LSU has only played 4 games and OSU has played 6. If you also consider Georgia has only played 5 games and USC only 4, that really separates Ohio State followed by Alabama as woefully inadequate in sack production.

As the table indicates below, the offensive line play is also falling short. Again, comparing the top 12 teams in the coaches poll, Ohio State is far and away the worst performer in protecting the quarterback. To put it in even more perspective, the Buckeyes rank 106th nationally in this metric. Averaging nearly 3 sacks per game is unacceptable for any team with aspirations of a conference championship, let alone a national championship.

The bottom line unfortunately for Ohio State fans is, without material improvement in red zone production and line play, expect the Buckeyes to lose to Penn State at a minimum, and possibly to Illinois and Michigan State as well.

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Proof (Statistical) That Statistics Don't Matter, Sports | No Comments »

College Football Questions and Answers: Week 6

October 6th, 2008 by Red Renee

I have to give Vanderbilt credit for beating a tough Auburn team at home 14-13. I predicted a tight game, but an Auburn victory. With a 5-0 start for the first time since 1943, and at a real academic school to boot, Vanderbilt has to be one of the biggest stories of the season thus far. The Commodore offense was prettier than usual and got it done with their backup Quarterback Mackenzi Adams (which incidentally is the name of a girl I went to high school with). Vanderbilt fans got a gift Saturday with Adams’ performance. Last season Adams threw 9 touchdowns to 6 interceptions so look for a second game slump should Adams start next week against Mississippi State.

Highlights: (13) Auburn - (19) Vandy
Highlights: (13) Auburn - (19) Vandy

The tough games lie ahead for Vanderbilt with Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, and Wake Forest all still on the schedule, but this team’s going bowling for sure.

For Auburn, another close game and more questions at quarterback. The last four games for Auburn have been decided by an average of two points and have resulted in two wins and two losses. They’ve got an easy stretch the next four games before finishing with Georgia and Alabama, but as inconsistent as this team has been, expect at least one loss in the next four.

At quarterback for Auburn they were a dreadful 10 of 22 for 98 yards. This team is 104th in the nation in passing and without much help rushing, they’re going to continue to struggle against quality opponents.

The USC Trojans did what they do- follow up a loss to a team they shouldn’t lose to by blowing out a team that is decent. They dragged their feet through the first quarter and then exploded winning by a final score of 44-10. Get ready for the “playing the best of anyone” discussion, it’s coming to an internet near you in four to five weeks.

Penn State won again but didn’t roll like they should have. They rolled up plenty of yards but had difficulty getting into the end zone with only two touchdowns. I’m giving Penn State a pass because they’ve been so dominant in other games, but another performance like this week against Wisconsin next and I’m going to start asking questions. Purdue struggled mightily against the PSU defense, and special teams didn’t help missing two field goals and an extra point.

Highlights: (6) Penn State - Purdue
Highlights: (6) Penn State - Purdue

There’s definitely something afoul in State College- either Darryl Clark is playing out of his mind or the Penn State offensive coaches are incompetent. Darryl Clark is the 11th best quarterback in the nation according to passer rating and has nine touchdowns against only one interception. Last season, while Anthony Morelli was doing his best impersonation of a Notre Dame quarterback (high expectations, low performance), Clark was limited to a total of 9 passes. If Clark is this good, why wasn’t he given a chance last season? Nittany Lion fans should be pulling together their frothiest elected Democrats and demanding an immediate inquiry.

OSU freshman QB Terrelle Pryor did get his first road win against a band-less Wisconsin team and continued to show development. Pryor made lots of young mistakes including several sacks that didn’t need to be, but he also showed the kind of swagger and production that indicates a star in the making. The game was a watershed one for an underachieving, seemingly uninspired Buckeye team, and could provide a springboard for them for the rest of the season. Ohio State settling for field goals in the red zone continues to be a problem theme.

Highlights: (14) Ohio St. - (18) Wisc.
Highlights: (14) Ohio St. - (18) Wisc.

In one of my favorite non-football moments of the season, cornerback Malcolm Jenkins got his dance on during the “Jump Around” festivities in Madison. Evidence of the kind of “playing loose” that Ohio State needs to exhibit more of in big games.

Alabama did not handle being # 2 well, just as I predicted. They scraped by and got a gift with the late game fumble of Glen Coffee rolling out of bounds instead of into the waiting hands of the Kentucky defender. Still, they got the win which is all that matters for the BCS, and I found my new second favorite running back. Junior Glen Coffee is the real deal- 6-2, 200 pounds, plenty of speed, and legitimate moves. Look for him to continue to have a big year and be a Heisman candidate next year should he return for his senior season.


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I also have to call out Kentucky for one of the worst onside kicks ever. If you saw the game, you know what I’m talking about. The ball didn’t even bounce; the kicker hit a line drive right out of bounds. I’m no kicker but I know I could at least get a couple bounces out of the ball. Nice.

Also as I predicted, Kansas State did not upset Texas Tech. Texas Tech blew out the Wildcats 58-28 and continues to be devastating on offense, but also one of the more over-rated teams in the country.

Highlights: (7) Texas Tech - Kansas St
Highlights: (7) Texas Tech - Kansas St

Finally, and you’re probably getting sick of me being right all the time, but Michigan did not beat Illinois. As I predicted, they did not have the athletes to hang with the Illini and lost 45-20. Michigan did show some life in the passing game, but surprisingly couldn’t keep the Illinois offense in check. I’ve often been hard on Juice Williams in the past, but he was very solid with a 50% completion percentage, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He also had 121 yards rushing.

Looking at the rest of Michigan’s schedule- 6-6 is a good outcome. More likely is 5-7 with the Wolverines missing out on a bowl game. Ouch.

You’re welcome.

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Getting to know the Frontrunners: The Big XII

October 2nd, 2008 by Red Renee

The Big XII switched spots with the SEC this week taking the “4 teams in the top 10″ banner. Specifically in the Coaches Poll- Oklahoma at 1, Missouri at 3, Texas at 5, and Texas Tech at 8. The biggest fraud of these so far is Texas Tech, but I’ll get to them in a second. First, it’s worthwhile analyzing the Sagarin strength of schedule of the Big XII teams.

As a reference point, consider that # 2 Alabama has a strength of schedule at 39th; The # 9 team USC is SOS’d at 7th; the # 10 team Georgia is ranked at 29th; and LSU has a strength of schedule at 114th.

The leader of the Big XII pack, Oklahoma, has a pretty limp ranking at 78th, barely evidence of a challenge to them, but superior to the rest of their Big XII peers. Oklahoma has been very dominant early on and statistically very strong. Put it in the context of who they’ve beaten though (nobody).

Texas is next with the 117th ranked strength of schedule. Texas’ quality win is a 52-10 win over a 2-2 Arkansas team. Texas is getting lit up through the air on defense, but that’s partially because they’re getting ahead of opponents and then they’re forced to throw. Still, 100th in pass offense against inferior competition isn’t going to get it done.

Texas Tech
is next “toughest” with the 129th ranked strength of schedule. The Red Raiders’ “quality win” is a 35-19 victory on the road against a 2-2 Nevada team. Texas Tech is 97th in pass defense, 61st in overall defense, and 66th in rushing offense, all against a wet paper bag schedule. TT also has the distinction of playing not one but two I-AA teams this season- 2-2 Umass and 2-2 Eastern Washington. If that doesn’t point to the ridiculous nature of early season polls, and the agendas that several national writers have, I don’t know what does.

Finally, Missouri trails with the 142nd ranked strength of schedule. That means 21 Division I-AA teams have a tougher schedule thus far than the Missouri Tigers. Missouri’s “quality win” remains their season opening 52-42 win over Illinois. Missouri also struggles against the pass (must be a Big XII virus) at 111th and have the 79th ranked defense overall. Considering who they’ve played, that’s a serious problem and should make voters pause before putting that at # 3 on their ballots (myself included).

What does all this mean at this point in the season? Not much. It means some or all of these teams aren’t necessarily as good as their ranking right now. It’s likely the Big XII will sort itself out with Missouri @ Texas, Texas @ Oklahoma, Texas @ Texas Tech, Texas Tech @ Oklahoma, plus the Big XII championship game still on the schedule.

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Proof (Statistical) That Statistics Don't Matter, Sports | 2 Comments »

Hatin’ on the Buckeyes, AP-style

September 29th, 2008 by Red Renee

Not that it impacts the national championship picture, but if you looked at the polls closely this week, you may have noticed an anomaly in the AP poll. USC, Georgia, and Florida all were ahead of Ohio State, all lost and remained ranked ahead of the Buckeyes despite OSU winning. That’s not the anomaly, that’s to be expected considering how Ohio State has played this year, the championship losses, the fear of the vest, etc., etc…

The anomaly is Auburn quietly moving ahead of Ohio State, going from # 15 last week to # 13 this week. You could certainly justify putting Auburn ahead of the Buckeyes last week after Auburn’s 5-point loss to LSU at home. That’s a quality loss compared to the Buckeyes’ blowout at the hands of USC. But that’s not what happened.

Instead, enough AP voters were impressed by Auburn’s dominating 2-point win over a 1-3 Tennessee Volunteer team to vote them ahead of the Buckeyes. Impressed enough in fact that Auburn went from 5 points behind the Buckeyes to 31 points ahead. Objective journalists just voting their conscience. Riiiiiiiight.

Calling a spade a spade- It’s the expected bias against Ohio State for the past two National Championship transgressions. Or more to the point- it’s the “oh shit” realization by the AP voters that teams ahead of Ohio State look once again to start dropping like flies so “we better start building in some buffer”. Again- I don’t necessarily have a problem with where the Buckeyes are in the polls, I just find it unprofessional based on the movement from last week to this week by so-called unbiased “journalists”.

No matter, the AP poll means exactly nothing in terms of the BCS, having been replaced by the Harris poll in the super computer calculations. And maybe because of that, the move looks even more desparate. Incidentally, the Harris poll debuted this week with Auburn # 13, Ohio State # 14; perhaps Ed Harris (of the Harris poll) has friends in the media?

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Proof (Statistical) That Statistics Don't Matter, Sports | 6 Comments »

Ten (nine) questions I can’t wait to be answered this weekend:

September 27th, 2008 by Red Renee

Conference play is in full swing this week so plenty to talk about.

1.) Is Alabama for real?
We’re gonna find out. The gameplan for Georgia on defense is to load the box and force Alabama Senior QB John Parker Wilson to win the game through the air. Alabama has the 14th best rushing offense vs. the 3rd best rushing defense in Georgia so at least on paper, it looks like a compelling match up. Vegas likes Georgia by 6.5- I sure hope it’s that good.

2.) Is Penn State for real?
An inconsistent Illinois team should provide a reasonable barometer. Illinois is coming off a bye-week and risks being 2-2 should they lose to Penn State. Unfortunately for Illinois, to be successful they’ll need to establish the run game which I don’t think they’ll be able to do.

3.) Can TCU slow down Oklahoma?
TCU has the #1 ranked defense but hasn’t faced an offense even on the same planet as OU. On offense, TCU has gotten it done on the ground and via turnovers (+12 turnover margin). The Horned Frogs will need some productivity through the air (0 touchdowns this season) and some timely turnovers to keep Oklahoma from rolling.

4.) What are the Michigan Wolverines made of? We’re gonna find out. Michigan stands at 1-2 with Wisconsin, Illinois, and Penn State in three of their next four games. A bad stretch and the Wolverines could be staring at a 2-5 record plus the likelihood of not going to a bowl game. Sitting home for the holidays would break a streak of 12 consecutive bowl games dating back to Lloyd Carr’s second year as head coach. It’s gut check time for Rich Rod and the Wolverines. They’ve got the defense to slow down Wisconsin, the question is can they avoid the turnovers that cost them the game against Notre Dame last week?

5.) Tennessee fun fact: each of the past three years following the Volunteers loss to Florida, they’ve won the next game, including a 30-27 upset win at # 3 LSU in 2005.

6.) Auburn fun fact: two out of the last three years following their loss to LSU, the Tigers have won their next game, both of those wins coming at the hands of Mississippi.

7.) Will Tar Heels’ Head Coach Butch Davis be successful in his return to the Orange Bowl (Dolphin Stadium) against his former team Miami? Davis has been successful so far in his plan to raise North Carolina to mediocrity and borderline national awareness. Unfortunately, he just lost his QB for six weeks to an injury, on an offense that wasn’t very good to start with. Miami continues to either not recruit for or not care about offense (94th in total offense) but they do have a decent defense. Take the Canes in this one.

8.) Which UCLA team is going to show up against # 25 Fresno State today?
The one that beat Tennessee in week one or the one that got blown out by BYU and Arizona?

9.) Which team will be more awesome in their beating of a team from Mississippi- Florida when they beat down ‘Ole Miss or LSU when they steal Mississippi State’s lunch money?
It’s a trick question. By default, since both teams are in the SEC, and per NCAA regulation 2006.115A, the sum of its’ parts is greater than the whole, ergo ipso facto the awesomeness of the conference as a whole makes it very difficult to solve for the awesomeness of any one particular team. (check my math though)

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Ten Questions, Sports | 9 Comments »

Fight On (Beavers)

September 26th, 2008 by Red Renee

Leave it to the Beavers. The scene in Corvallis, Oregon last night was simply stunning. Breathtakingly, eye-openingly, stunning.

In yet another example that college football can just as easily be affected by emotion as it can by talent or coaching, Oregon State thoroughly dominated the near-unanimous # 1 Trojans. It wasn’t a fluke or an accident, it was pure and simple an ass-kicking.

After two blowout wins for USC, the Pac-10 schedule was expected to be a march toward coronation. Next stop, National Championship. Maualuga, here’s the Butkus. Jeff Byers, here’s your Rimington. Sanchez, the Heisman’s yours next year, this year if you really, really want it.

Oregon State had been at best inconsistent; at worst hapless, up until last night. An opening season loss at Stanford by 8. A game two blowout at Penn State 45-14. A game three win over a weaponless Hawaii.

USC was favored by 25 points and expected to roll against an unranked, inferior team. Not so much.

The best headline I’ve seen this morning is from Trojanwire.com. The headline simply reads: “Jacquizzed”.

Jacquizzed indeed. The Trojans have five-star recruits washing towels back at their training facility. Oregon State had the 52nd ranked recruiting class in the country last year according to Rivals.com, sandwiched just between Baylor and Iowa. OSU had one 5-star recruit, and the undoing for the Trojans was a 3-star, five and half foot (barely) true Freshman Jacquizz Rodgers. Rodgers gashed USC for 186 yards on 37 carries.


You just got Jacquizzed bitches

Rodgers made use of his fleet feet by constantly cutting back against the speed, and dare I say overpursuit of the USC defense. Both lines were dominated by OSU and the Beavers were able to convert several key 3rd downs through the air when they needed to, despite the erratic throwing of Junior QB Lyle Moevao. Moevao’s passes were so erratic that there could have easily been 4 or 5 interceptions, including a tipped pass at the end zone at the end of the 1st half. That pass instead landed in the hands of James Rodgers (Jacquizz’ older brother) for a touchdown. Sometimes that’s how the ball bounces.

A side bar to the Rodgers family: what was the thought process between naming one son “James” and the other “Jacquizz”? Just curious. No matter, it’s my new favorite adverb.

And getting back to emotion, perhaps no other team in America is as emotional as USC. And last night they were emotionless. They looked like they were in a fog- questioning who was slapping them in the face, wondering why receivers were dropping passes, and trying to figure out how the hell to tackle the diminutive and elusive Jacquizz.

USC consistently relies on loose, fun practices and the ability to “turn it on” between the lines. The trouble is that great teams, even the best teams have trouble consistently “turning it on”. And USC has certainly proven that with last night’s loss, last year’s shocker to Stanford, and the loss the year before to the same Oregon State team.

It’s one of those take the good with the bad things. The good is very good; most teams would make multiple deals with the devil (and do) to get a piece of it. But the bad is staggering. And yet, of all the USC fans I met out in L.A. two weeks ago, only two seem to be tinted with any dose of humility after such events.

Where to go next is the question for the Trojans. Sanchez made mistakes you would expect a first-year starter to make last night, but clearly was favoring his injured knee so there could be trouble there. Linebacker Rey Maualuga left the game with a sprained knee. Safety Taylor Mays left the game with an undisclosed chest injury after coughing up blood. Linebacker Brian Cushing broke a bone in his hand. And damaged worst of all was the Trojan Machismo- getting bitchslapped by your younger, much uglier cousin on national TV.

Taking a step back and looking at the Pac-10 landscape, consider that not a single team in the league stands undefeated a mere four weeks into the season. Arizona and Oregon stand at the top of the conference at 3-1. For USC, they’ve got consecutive home games with Oregon and Arizona State coming up and who knows where their heads will be. Assuming Carroll circles the wagons and Maualuga puts the pink thong back on, USC will no doubt roll through the rest of their schedule, and be at the center of the “playing the best football” argument at the end of the season as Matt Hinton so deftly pointed out over at Dr. Saturday.

The effects on the national landscape are profound, just like it was last year. I think it’s a lock now that we’ll have another one-loss team in the national championship. I’ve stated either Oklahoma or Missouri should come through the Big XII untouched but after that, it’s unlikely anyone else will. Either because of the quality of opponents or the mediocrity of offenses (you decide) in the SEC, it’s highly unlikely an undefeated team will come from there. It certainly is possible that a team like Penn State could run the table in the Big Ten but would you bet any material sums of money on that? I sure wouldn’t.

After that, who are we looking at? Wake Forest? South Florida again? Utah/BYU/TCU? We’re headed for more BCS trouble, that’s where we’re headed.

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Proof (Statistical) That Statistics Don't Matter, Sports | 2 Comments »

College Football Tour Guy

September 23rd, 2008 by Red Renee

Episode Three, Dateline: Iowa City, Iowa. A disappointing effort which we’ll blame squarely on Iowa Hawkeye fans.


Iowa from Dan Rubenstein on Vimeo.

You’re welcome.

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College Football Questions and Answers: Week 4

September 21st, 2008 by Red Renee

Subtitled: Southern Exposure

The SEC took center stage in week 4 and while there weren’t really any big surprises, there was plenty of good football to watch. And in case you didn’t see it, Tennessee is still Florida’s bitch.

The first question I posed was whether or not the LSU-Auburn game could live up to its’ prime-time billing. It certainly did. Both defenses controlled the tempo of the game and seven total turnovers swung momentum back and forth like a pendulum. LSU made more plays including rolling the dice on a half-back pass (which went for a touchdown) and an onside kick in the 3rd quarter (which they successfully recovered).

Even with all that, LSU still had to come up with a touchdown in the last two minutes to pull ahead and win. LSU still has quarterback questions and Auburn continues to have consistency issues on offense, but both teams proved to have very solid defenses. Incidentally I wrote that Auburn would cover the 2 1/2 point spread, which in retrospect was an awfully stupid prediction. They didn’t cover, losing by 6.

I questioned whether Tennessee had any heart left.

Failure

Tennessee actually played Florida tight statistically speaking outgaining them in total yards, but crucial errors and questionable coaching decisions put the margin of victory into “whoopin’ ” territory. Two of UT’s three turnovers came at the end of promising drives inside the Florida 5 yard line. Throw in the fact that the Vols insisted on kicking to Brandon James (130 return yards, punt return for a touchdown) instead of just kicking the ball out of bounds/squibbing or falling to the ground in the fetal position.

Then there’s Phil Fulmer’s typical sprinkle of magic- going for two in the 4th quarter when the score reads 27-6. I’m sure Fulmer was just trying to spark some momentum for a downward-spiraling team, but in typical Tennessee fashion, that plan backfired. According to this chart, technically Fulmer might have been right. Still, Tennessee starts the year 1-2 again and this time, I don’t think Fulmer will be able to bring them back.

I picked Tennessee to cover the 7 1/2 point spread here and of course they didn’t. In fact, Florida more than tripled the spread.

Georgia beat Arizona State 27-10 in what turned out to be a letdown (for viewers). The luster was taken off the game a week prior when ASU lost to UNLV, and Arizona State was never really in contention. Matthew Stafford proved to the better quarterback and Georgia Running Back Knowshon Moreno added more yards and highlights to his Heisman film reel.

Ohio State rebounded after USC but didn’t cover the 20 1/2 point spread against Troy, winning by a tally of 28-10 (predicted that one right). The quarterback battle never emerged as Terrelle Pryor played nearly the entire game, and former starter Todd Boeckman was limited to only two snaps.

As I highlighted on Friday, Texas once again whipped Rice, 52-10. We get it Texas- you can beat Rice. Well done, we’re all verrry impressed. Now get them off your freaking schedule.

Finally, I picked Michigan State to beat Notre Dame. That pick was like taking candy from a baby- final score MSU 23 - ND 7. It turns out Michigan State only needed Javon Ringer to beat the golden domers. Ringer rushed for 201 yards and had two touchdowns vs. the one touchdown and 258 total yards of offense for Notre Dame. If they game weren’t in East Lansing, MSU could have just put Ringer on a scooter and had him drive himself over to South Bend.

You’re welcome.

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Posted in Ten Questions, Sports | 3 Comments »

Ten (Seven) Questions I can’t wait to be answered this weekend

September 20th, 2008 by Red Renee

LSU-Auburn
1.) Can LSU-Auburn live up to the “best game of the weekend” billing? Probably not. Auburn is coming off its’ 3-2 soccer win over Mississippi State and LSU is on the road after delivering kind beatings to a I-AA and a Sun Belt opponent. Both teams have plenty to prove and with top ten rankings for each, one of them is going to take a tumble. Vegas likes LSU by 2 1/2, I like Auburn to cover at home in a very low-scoring game.

2.) Do Fulmer’s UT Vols have any heart left?
Tennessee recovered last week after their heartbreaking week one loss to UCLA. The vols endured a hearty helping of Gator trash talk this week and are looking to avenge Florida blowing them out last year. Florida is favored by 7 1/2 and I’d love to pick Tennessee outright but I do like them to cover the spread.

3.) Can Arizona State upset # 3 Georgia? Not bloody likely. It’s hard to tell where ASU’s head will be at after their overtime loss to a crappy UNLV team last week. Georgia will look to establish the run early to control the clock and bring heavy pressure on ASU QB Rudy Carpenter to keep him from getting on track. Georgia will also be looking to improve on their lackluster 14-7 win over South Carolina last week. I expect another disappointing loss for the Pac-10, and more chest-beating from the SEC.

4.) Will anyone nationally either in print or on TV point out that #11 Texas Tech is playing their second I-AA opponent this season? Anyone?! Of course not. Instead, it will be another installment of the Graham Harrell/Michael Crabtree lovefest.

5.) Can Ohio State rebound after getting the scarlet and the grey kicked out of them last week? Two-time defending Sun Belt champ Troy comes into Columbus ranking 11th in total offense and 5th in total defense. That isn’t exactly the kind of rebound opponent a scattered Buckeye team was looking for. Ohio State is favored by 20 1/2 and I don’t think there’s any way they’re going to cover that, and they’ve got a pretty fair shot at losing depending on how much emotion they play with. The sub plot will be to watch the emerging quarterback battle between Freshman Terrelle Pryor and Senior Todd Boeckman.

6.) It’s funny to me that Texas gets a pass each year when Rice comes into town to take their Longhorn beating. Most other top ten teams get blasphemed whenever they schedule/obliterate in-state opponents. Yet very little is mentioned regarding Rice-Texas despite the fact that Rice has only come within four touchdowns of Texas once in the last five consecutive meetings. (I’m aware none of this is a question).

7.) After dispatching one of the worst Michigan teams in the last 25 years, can Notre Dame get the two-fer with a win over Michigan State? Don’t count on it. Notre Dame is still a mess and Michigan State needs a win to be 3-1 heading into conference play. I like Sparty in this one.

You’re welcome.

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The Ten Worst

September 18th, 2008 by Red Renee

Updating you on the ten worst offenses and defenses in America, at least statistically speaking. As an added bonus, I’ve also got the ten worst on 3rd down conversions and turnovers for your reading and referencing enjoyment.

Some movement in the ten worst offenses, most notably is Michigan moving out and Syracuse moving in. Syracuse has the dubious distinction of placing in the ten worst on both offense and defense- nice! Also honorable mention to the PAC-10 who place three teams in the bottom ten.


The bottom ten on defense has a new # 114 in UAB, taking the place of former # 114 Louisiana Lafayette.


The bottom ten on 3rd down conversions has several BCS-conference members plus former offensive juggernaut Hawaii at the very bottom. On 33 3rd down attempts, Hawaii has converted 5 for a 15.2% conversion rate. Maybe former QB Colt Brennan was a better quarterback than he got credit for.


Finally, the ten worst on turnover margin. Hawaii holds down worst on this list also with a -9 turnover margin through three games. A couple other medium-profile programs here including UCLA and South Carolina.


You’re welcome.

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Posted in Proof (Statistical) That Statistics Don't Matter, Sports | 1 Comment »

College Football Questions & Answers: Week 3

September 15th, 2008 by Red Renee

Subtitled: Post-Mortem on the “Horror in the Hood”

Post-titled: “Busted Nut”

Week 3 of the college football season delivered loads of drama and devastation, leaving me to believe that 2008 might just be a continuation of 2007. I was on hand to witness first-person USC’s beatdown of the Buckeyes. Unfortunately, that left me watching snippets of most other games while tailgating, but I’m not complaining. If I had the means and the time, that’s how I’d spend every Saturday (minus the butt-kicking).

Unfortunately for Buckeye nation, much of my words of caution leading up to USC-OSU materialized. On Thursday I wrote about how the Buckeyes had managed only 6 touchdowns against 8 field goal attempts through the first two games. Ohio State would have been happy with that ratio on Saturday night. Unfortunately for them they managed 0 touchdowns vs. 2 field goal attempts (only one made).

In order for Ohio State to have won on Saturday evening, I said two things must happen: first they needed to disrupt Mark Sanchez. Second, they needed to use creative play-calling in passing situations to protect the offensive line (and QB Todd Boeckman). On Friday I further stated “The pocket will not hold up against the USC pass rush for more than a second or two. Quick hits will be a necessity or the USC defense will dominate the Buckeyes.” The Buckeyes did neither Saturday night. Sanchez for the most part was able to do whatever he wanted to and OSU’s offensive line, particularly in the second half, was dreadful. I give credit to Tressel and the rest of the staff for using Terrelle Pryor early and often and greatly varying a typically vanilla offense, especially in the absence of Beanie Wells.

The Buckeyes played well in the first half yet trailed 21-3. OSU actually had a yardage lead through two quarters but key mistakes and penalties (3 turnovers, 11 penalties) kept them from staying in the game. By the time a couple minutes had elapsed in the third quarter, the drama was over and the collective will of the Buckeye players had been sufficiently beaten down. And Trojan fan was gleefully rubbing it in the face of any Buckeye fan within shouting distance.

Incidentally, I also said the team that got to 300 yards of offense would win. USC finished the game with 348 yards to Ohio State’s 207.

A disturbing trend is developing for the Buckeyes that could be the central conflict for the remainder of the season. The trend is Todd Boeckman struggling in big games, and there’s enough data to support the yelps of many Buckeye fans I heard in the Coliseum Saturday to “get Boeckman out of the ****ing game”. Consider if you will:

Saturday vs. the Trojans- 14/21 passing for 84 yards, no touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 34.7 passer rating

National Championship game vs. LSU- 15/26 passing for 208 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 77.1 passer rating

Michigan game 11/17/07- 7/13 passing for 50 yards, no touchdowns, 1 interception (sloppy weather game), 30.9 passer rating

Illinois game 11/10/07- 13/23 for 156 yards, no touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 37.9 passer rating

In the four most important games Ohio State has played in the last two seasons, Boeckman’s average passer rating is 40.15.

The void left by Troy Smith is gaping wide. Smith will forever be a legend in Buckeye lore for putting the team on his back and leading them to victory in game after game, the lone exception being the National Championship loss to Florida. Boeckman on the other hand has yet to prove he can perform such heroics, or even that he’s capable of “managing the game” when the stakes are the highest. You can certainly argue that when it matters the most, Boeckman struggles.

Boeckman doesn’t deserve all the blame. There is a serious sub-trend in the inability of the OSU offensive line to handle fast athletic defensive lines. Again reference Florida, Illinois, Michigan, and the mauling Saturday night at USC. At some point (that time is now) the coaching has to be called into question. Ohio State recruits players that everybody else wants. They landed three of the most highly recruited offensive lineman in this year’s recruiting class. And yet, the O-line looked helpless against the Trojan d-line and the wizardry of Pete Carroll. So either the players are being asked to “think too much” or they’re simply not getting the instruction that they need.

When the clock ran down and as the USC fans were throwing out their final obscenities, the Buckeyes had added about ten more feet of depth to their “public perception” hole, and further damaged the near-basement reputation nationally of the Big Ten. Though I’ve spent a lot of time and effort refuting the characterization of Ohio State as the tallest midget, I can no longer do so in good conscience, despite most writers and talk show hosts nationally still using reckless commentary.

Before I move on to other games around the country, just a couple notes on the atmosphere and my first time in the Coliseum. The stadium itself is rich with history but is desperate need of some upgrades. The electronics are embarrassing- two mini-trons and two tiny time clocks that look like they’ve been there since the early 80’s. There’s no other information anywhere in the stadium- no screens showing yardage or scores from other games. Nothing.

USC Minitrons

The USC band is amplified which probably doesn’t matter to most fans, but as a former musician, this is unforgivable, and very, very weak. The performance of the band was horrible too- I’ve seen better middle school bands, and this is surprising considering USC has a very good music program.

The stadium does get a thumbs up for having mostly seat-back seats and not benches that leave you numb by the third quarter. The lighting of the Olympic torch in the 4th quarter is also a really cool touch. Variety of food was strong as well- the usual stadium fare plus several other options including kettle corn, pulled pork, and espresso. The concessions areas surrounding the stadium very much had a county fair feel to it (and I mean that in a good sense and not in a “wow look at all these mullets” sense).

The tailgate scene was fun with lots of light-hearted banter between RV’s. Once the game started, there was a pretty even split between drunk assholes and knowledgeable football fans (on both sides) but I do think there’s a palpable degree of arrogance to the USC fan base. Not sure if it’s personal insecurity or over-confidence, but it was pretty distasteful Saturday night. I could tell you stories about “bad fans” like the dude that yelled “F*** Ohio State” as I walked by or the dudes that taunted women and children (not making that up) as they got up to get food, but that happens at most stadiums unfortunately, and particularly for night games. College football would be a much better place if the idiots stayed home to watch the game with their parole officer.

One more note on the horror in the hood- memo to Pete Carroll: going for it on 4th down in the 4th quarter after the Buckeyes had already been spayed and neutered (some of the players are chicks) is Busch-league and very unclassy. Sidebar- also evidence of how bad a place Ohio State is in that they should have gotten mercy-ruled if Carroll had stayed classy (stay classy Pete!)

On to the rest of the college football world…

I questioned whether South Carolina could beat Georgia for a second year in a row and I state that anything less than a ten-point win for Georgia should drop them in the polls. Georgia won by 7 and the Bulldogs lost 1st place votes in both polls (also due to how well USC played). Georgia continues to look underwhelming as the # 2 team and don’t give me any of the “SEC’s the toughest….garbage.” Georgia Southern isn’t in the SEC.

I completely whiffed on my Michigan-Notre Dame prediction. I predicted Michigan would win on the performance of their defense. Unfortunately for the Michigan D, the inept Michigan offense is now losing games for them with their six turnover performance. I don’t know when rock bottom is going to happen for Michigan this season but I’m pretty sure I don’t want to see it. And Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis further demonstrated how far out of touch with reality his by this quote “We definitely showed up against a good opponent and it’s sweet.” I’m not sure what tape Weis is watching but for the 2008 Wolverines, the adjective “good” does not apply. “Average” is a stretch. If Weis had said “We definitely showed up against a below average opponent that’s rebuilding like New Orleans after Katrina”, than yes, I’m on board.

On Friday I questioned if this was the game that would get Greg Robinson fired at Syracuse. I have checked the Syracuse papers yet but a 55-13 steamroll at the hands of Penn State is sure to get an “emergency board of trustees meeting” on the calendar. And a memo to the Big Ten- forget about Wisconsin or Michigan State or Illinois, Penn State is the team to look out for in the Big Ten this year. The old coot’s finally done it. Almost.

I questioned whether Rick Neuheisel and the UCLA Bruins could keep the magic going after their win over Tennessee. Nope. The Bruins got Rickrolled to the tune of 59-0 at the hands of BYU. I guess the football dynasty is officially over there…in Provo, Utah.

I questioned whether this would be the game to get Washington Head Coach Ty Willingham fired? Haven’t checked the Washington papers yet either but a 55-14 loss to Oklahoma isn’t going to get a contract extension (unless you’re Charlie Weis, which clearly Willingham isn’t). And if you’re keeping track at home I said OU would more than cover the 21-point spread, and they did. Which proves I can both a.) state the obvious and b.) prove that I know what I’m doing some of the time.

Wisconsin nearly did get burned against Fresno State pulling out a three-point thriller 13-10. The spread was 2 points which absolutely amazes me that oddsmakers can get that close.

Finally, I questioned whether or not Clemson could get their season back on track against NC State. They surely did with a very uninspiring 27-9 victory. The Big Ten must be thankful that the ACC is laying down so much cover fire in the form of horrible football. Splendid diversionary tactics by two bad conferences.

You’re welcome.

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