It’s all about The Game, but there are a few other tilts worth keeping an eye on. Here are the questions I can’t wait to be answered…

1. Will Ohio State’s offense add another chapter in the bad Michigan defense story?
It’s not a huge mystery why Michigan has lost four in a row, six of their last seven, and needs a win over Ohio State to go to a bowl game. Here are some hints:

82nd in pass defense
84th in rush defense
80th in pass efficiency defense
76th in sacks
84th in scoring defense

The game plan for Ohio State is simple tomorrow, and Buckeye fans looking for high octane offense are going to be disappointed. Michigan’s offense can score and their defense is under-sized and highly susceptible to the run. The plan for Ohio State is ball control using the short passing game and heavy doses of run left, run right, run up the middle. The game may be close at the half but Ohio State will simply overpower and run over the Wolverines come the 4th quarter.

Michigan QB Tate Forcier is pixie-like in stature, has small hands (which usually ends up with him fumbling at some point) and hasn’t gotten much help from his offensive line this year. What he does do very well is throw on the run. Because of that, it will be important for the OSU defensive ends to keep Forcier in the pocket and running backwards as much as possible.

Ohio State is favored by 12 and I like them to win by 10.

2. Will the Boren brothers go “Hanson Brothers” on the Wolverines?

One of the few dramatic storylines this week is former Wolverine and current Ohio State Offensive Guard Justin Boren playing against his former team. His departure from Michigan was not quiet with him talking about erosion of family values and so forth.

Justin has been credited for added toughness to the Ohio State offensive line and I’d argue between he and his brother, Freshman Fullback Zach Boren, they’re both responsible for the resurgence of the OSU run game.

Michigan will certainly be gunning for both Boren brothers and I recommend they go a little Hanson on them.

3/4. Who’s going to represent the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl?
Runner-up game of the week goes to Oregon playing at Arizona in a night game. Actually two great Pac-10 night games with Cal playing at Stanford also.

Oregon and Arizona both control their Rose Bowl destiny, that is of course until one of them loses Saturday. The key matchup will be the Oregon ground game vs. the Arizona rush D. I like Oregon in that matchup.

Despite the game being played at Arizona, the Ducks are favored by 6. Ducks win.

The Cal-Stanford game is very intriguing. Both teams run the ball well and neither team defends the pass. Cal has the better rush defense, at least statistically, so at least on paper that gives them the edge.

If you happen to be at a Cal-Stanford party Saturday night- here are two fun facts for you to drop: Stanford is #1 in the nation in kickoff returns and #2 in sacks allowed.

Stanford is favored by 7; I like Cal in the upset.

5. How stoked are you for Florida/Alabama this weekend?
Actually Florida plays Florida International and Alabama plays Chattanooga. Florida is favored by 45 and there is no line for Alabama because they’re playing a high school team.

You’re welcome.

A special Ten (eight) Questions for you this week tributing one of the best (albeit little known and slightly raunchy) sitcoms on television- “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia”.

It’s spotlight weekend for the JV squads bringing up the rear plus another Weis referendum and of course the final home game in the Shoe with the Big Ten Championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl on the line. Savor the flavor- a long cold winter lays ahead.

1. Is your cat (Bearcat) making too much noise all the time? Try Kitten Mittons:

Cincinnati gets a scrappy 7-2 West Virginia team coming into Nippert Stadium Friday night under the lights. These teams are pretty evenly matched which explains the 9.5 point spread (in favor of Cincy).

The Bearcats have rattled off consecutive wins against two 3-6 teams and a 4-5 UConn squad but will be tested against a West Virginia team that can do things on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati has given up over 150 yards on the ground to opposing teams five times so that obviously bodes well for West Virginia’s hope to get Noel Devine in a position to control the game.

Cincinnati can score quickly and uses the pass to set up the run, so if West Virginia can make a couple plays defensively in the passing game, the momentum could shift. Cincinnati has been very good in the turnover department this year (3rd nationally), the Mountaineers not so much (95th nationally). That will be a key to watch Friday night.

UC Coach Brian Kelly swears he doesn’t have a quarterback controversy, which is a true statement until it turns into a quarterback contoversy. With former Heisman candidate Tony Pike and his flimsy humerus (humeri?) returning from injury and the next coming of Tim Tebow in Zach Collaros starting, a good thing can turn into a bad thing in just a few turnovers.

And speaking of Zach Collaros, I’ve seen him in person and he is the real deal and could very well be the next Tim Tebow, but he’s bound to hit some growing pains eventually. But just in case, children of the third world, keep an eye on your foreskin.

I don’t think Cincinnati is going to win out against their remaining schedule but I don’t think they’re going to lose at home tonight. Bearcats by 5.

2. Mojito me please.

Refreshing, unexpected, sweet, and loaded with Rum. That’s what Ohio State’s win over Penn State was last week.

This week a battered and bruised Iowa team comes into Columbus. They’re not dead yet though. The Hawkeye defense should keep Iowa in the game, at least for a half. Unlike Penn State last week, Iowa plays a more conservative defensive scheme rarely blitzing and preferring to keep things in front of them; the very definition of bend but don’t break. Ohio State was able to take advantage of Penn State’s aggressiveness last week and will have to do things differently this week.

By dropping more in coverage, Iowa will provide tighter spots for Terrelle to throw into, something he’ll have to be very careful with. Another test of TP’s growing maturity will come against a patient, well-coached and disciplined defense. If the Offensive Line can play well and get the running game going, things will go smoothly for the offense. If the running game doesn’t go anywhere, it could be bumpy for the home team.

On offense, Iowa loses some intangibles without Rick Stanzi but should net out about the same. Stanzi has thrown 14 interceptions on the year vs. only 15 touchdowns- chances are redshirt freshman James Vandenberg can match those numbers. What they’ll miss is Stanzi’s ability to make clutch throws on 3rd downs.

Iowa has several excellent pass-catching options in Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Marvin McNutt, and the best Tight End in the Big Ten- Tony Moeaki. McNutt is a converted QB and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lined up in the Wildcat Saturday both running and passing out of that. Other than that, Moeaki is the key for Iowa. It will be critical for Homan and/or Rolle to stay with Moeaki and keep him from breaking out.

Iowa uses the run to set up the pass and considering they don’t have much of a running game and they’re facing Ohio State’s 3rd best nationally run defense, it doesn’t project well for Team Ferentz. The real problem for Iowa, as is the case for every team Ohio State faces, is dealing with the Buckeye Defensive Line. Northwestern Defensive End Corey Wootton was in the backfield all game long last week against the Hawkeyes. Unfortunately for Iowa, Ohio State has 8 Corey Woottons. Advantage Ohio State.

Ohio State is favored by 16.5 which is a big number, even the way the Bucks have played lately. With the loss to Purdue still fresh, I don’t expect the Buckeyes to take Iowa lightly. I like Ohio State by 10 at home.

3. Splitting minimum wage.

Boise State and TCU are fighting over the BCS at-large spot this week; why not let them both play and split the payout?

TCU has the toughest test with a very good Utah team coming in. TCU is favored by 20 which tells you all you need to know about how good Vegas thinks TCU is. I like TCU to win.

Boise State has 7-3 potato-loving Idaho coming into town to challenge the blue turf. Boise State is favored by 31.5 so consider it a monumental upset if Idaho has it close at halftime.

4. USC’s Spin Class.

Stanford is going to do their best to put on some Stevie Winwood during USC’s spin class this weekend. Stanford and tailback Toby Gerhart have the exact type of physical running game that has given USC trouble in the past. I have no idea where USC’s psyche is after getting blown out by Oregon and barely surviving against Arizona State last week but I know exactly where Stanford’s psyche is- time to kick big brother in the nuts. USC is favored by 10.5.

5. Martina Martinez = Michigan; Green Man = Wisconsin

This one’s pretty simple- Wisconsin is playing to keep their place in a tie for 2nd place in the Big Ten. Michigan is fighting for their program, a bowl game, and potentially RichRod’s job. Rumors about QB Denard Robinson starting or at least playing more mean Michigan is searching for answers on both offense and defense.

With Wisconsin’s ability to run the ball with John Clay and control the clock, and Michigan’s ability to yield gobs of yards on defense, Michigan will need to score quickly because they won’t see the ball much.

Wisconsin is favored by 8.5 and I like them to win.

6. Come out blasting.

Come out blasting. That’s the game plan for all four teams in Northwestern @ Illinois and Michigan State @ Purdue Saturday. All but Northwestern are fighting for bowl eligibility and now’s the time to either show up and play or sit at home for the Holidays, swag-bag-less.

As proof that Vegas has a sense of humor, Illinois is favored by 4.5 and Michigan State is favored by 2.5 at Purdue. I like Illinois and Michigan State to win.

7. Threat level in Eugene this weekend: Yellow.

Or is it orange? Oregon knows Rose Bowl glory awaits if they can win out against their remaining schedule of Arizona State, @ Arizona, vs. Oregon State. The Sun Devils nearly got USC this week but won’t be so lucky this week. It will be interesting to see how the Ducks balance the two LaRunning Backs going forward (LaMichael James and LeGarrette Blount). Oregon is favored by 18.

8. Elbows and Knees; Steve Spurrier = Dee in the yellow pantsuit.

With all the complaining about Navy’s cut-blocking last week, Notre Dame’s coaching staff might do well to go with the “elbows and knees” philosophy this week @ Pittsburgh. If they don’t, Pittsburgh freshman Running Back Dion Lewis will run all over them.

Pittsburgh is also #1 in the nation in sacks so don’t expect Jimmy Clausen to have much time to throw the ball, not that Pittsburgh will allow them to have the ball very often.

Despite all this, Pittsburgh is only favored by 7 at home so maybe Vegas knows something I don’t. Wannstache is bound to do something to cause his team some points, still I like Pitt to win and speed up the spiral for Charlie Weis.

Steve Spurrier is so clearly Dee in the yellow pants suit. Playing with an under-talented team and harboring hopes that coaching can fix everything. In comes Tim Tebow and Florida to claim their Heisman and finally start the Gator locomotive on the way to Pasadena.

As much as I’d like to pick South Carolina at home in the upset, I’ve seen them play too much this year and know that offensively they simply can’t be counted to do anything except go three and out and raise Spurrier’s blood pressure. Gators are favored by 17; they win by 20+.

Go Buckeyes.

USC -v- Oregon is the marquee matchup, but there are a few other games to catch this Halloween weekend. Here are your ten (seven) questions:

1. Pac-10 Coach of the Year for Chip Kelly if Oregon beats USC?
Not that Oregon isn’t a good football team, they are. Following the implosion to start the season against Boise State, Chip Kelly has done a masterful job pulling the Ducks together (getting their ducks in a row if you will), with Oregon ripping off six straight wins.

USC and their 2011 Heisman Trophy winning Quarterback Matt Barkley come into Autzen Stadium to try and give Oregon their first conference loss.

In case you haven’t seen Oregon much this year, they’re a quality team, with a few exceptions.

The defense is solid, particularly their pass defense which will be tested early and often from Damian Williams and well…pretty much just Damian Williams. They’re getting a lot of pressure on quarterbacks ranking 10th nationally in sacks- the leader of that group is Kenny Rowe who’s getting a sack per game.

On offense the Ducks are very one-dimensional, getting lots on the ground and little through the air. Also, despite a decent turnover margin, Oregon is fumbling much more than they’d like to.

This game, just like the Oregon-Boise State game comes down to the lines and Jeremiah Masoli. Boise State manhandled Oregon on the offensive and defensive lines, putting the game in Masoli’s hands and forcing him to win by throwing. USC obviously has the athletes to do that, I’m just not sure yet they’ve got the heart. The USC defense in particular has played complacently at times the last couple weeks. They’ll have to play better than that to best an Oregon team that should be plenty motivated.

Oregon also will need a running back to step up and take pressure off Masoli. The best candidate for that is LaMichael James (translates to “the Michael” James) who has three 150 yard games this year including two in a row.

USC is favored by 3 but I like Oregon to win by the same.

2. What are the oddsmakers in Vegas smoking (besides weed, surplus stripper hand bills, and the deed to their value-less home)?
The current line on Ohio State -v- New Mexico State is 44 points. It started at 40 on Monday and has gone up by 4 which means gamblers weren’t originally willing to lay money on NMSU (or UNMS?).

This is a stunning fact considering that Ohio State has yet to score 40 points this season and continues to have injury issues at running back and on the offensive line.

The Buckeyes covered the spread with authority last week which could be part of the reason for the monster line this week. That, plus the fact that a 3-5 WAC team is coming into town. Not only a 3-5 WAC team, but a 3-5 WAC team that has won all three of their games by three points, and statistically the worst offense in Division I football. Still, 44 points is setting the bar awfully high.

Ohio State by 30.

3. I hear you’re a man and I understand you’re 40, but can you beat Texas without Dez Bryant?
Oklahoma State is a good team. They’re explosive and balanced on offense, they’re forcing turnovers on defense and they’ve got a quality veteran at quarterback. The one place they’re vulnerable unfortunately is passing defense. Not exactly the place to be vulnerable when Colt McCoy is playing for the other team.

Texas is going to score but I’m anxious to see if they can get the running game going against a good OSU rush d. Okie State will need to score often to keep up and I think they will do it- pulling off the upset over Texas by 4. Texas is favored by 9.

4. How much does Georgia miss Knowshon Moreno?
The 2009 Georgia Bulldog team is a shell of the ‘08 team, mostly because of the loss to Moreno to the NFL (and Matt Stafford). Georgia ranks 103rd nationally in rushing and dead last in the SEC. On top of that they’ve got a bad defense and are giving up way too many turnovers.

As much as I’d like Florida to lose, this isn’t the game for that to happen. In fact, after the bad outing Tebow had last week, I expect the Gators to rebound big winning by 20+. Florida is favored by 15 and Gators are favored by 2 over humans on land (by 19 in the water).

5. How can you not be intrigued by Michigan at Illinois?
If for no other reason than morbid curiosity, I’m going to watch this game Saturday. Michigan should still be wobbling after getting the business end of JoePa’s highwater sneakers last week in Ann Arbor. Meanwhile Illinois has been a complete disappointment this year and needs to win all five remaining games just to qualify for a bowl game (and a crappy one at that).

Baby Tate Forcier hit the wall last week going 13-of-30 for 130 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. He’ll get an underperforming and Peep-like soft Illini defense to rebound, and I expect he will. Michigan should win by 10+. The Wolverines are favored by 7.

6. Might Penn State get tripped up at Northwestern?
Not bloody likely. With a Senior at Quarterback, a Senior at the Head Coaching position, and a blossoming run game, I’d like to think the Nits have the leadership and experience not to overlook an inferior opponent, even if it is the week before the showdown with Ohio State. Still, Northwestern can score points and has made a habit of winning close games. The Wildcat defense is putrid and Penn State should have no trouble scoring so it falls on the Nittany defense to shutdown Team Kafka in the purple and white.

Penn State is favored by 17 and I like them to win by at least that.

7. Are you ready for the Big East Fiesta?
With the exception of the love affair with Cincinnati, there’s been little reason to watch Big East football this year. That’s about to change, starting this week with West Virginia at South Florida (WVU is favored by 3). The remaining games in the Big East include:

West Virginia @ Cincinnati
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame
South Florida vs. Miami
Louisville vs. Syracuse (basketball, not football. Sorry Greg Paulus).

Go Buckeyes.

Seven of the top ten teams have night games this weekend, five of those on the road. Pace yourself in the afternoon because it’s going to be a long night (yes you can use that line on your wife). The 3:30 games aren’t too shabby either. Here are your ten questions…

1. Would you, could you bet your hard-earned money (or your trust fund money, or your government bailout money) on the Buckeyes?
Ohio State is favored by a staggering 16.5 points over Minnesota in Columbus this weekend. This after dropping a game on the road to a 1-5 Purdue team last week and having an anemic showing on offense the week before against Wisconsin. If one is watching the Buckeyes closely, you have to wonder how they’d score 17 points total, let alone enough to cover a 16.5 point spread.

The eternal optimist in me says this is the week the Buckeyes find the right mix of plays on offense to finally get things rolling, but seriously, if you’re putting money on this game, you have a problem. Put down the meth and the quarter rolls and go get help. That said, I like the Buckeyes by 10 at home.

2. Might Oklahoma fall to 3-4?
The unthinkable could happen when the 3-3 Sooners travel to the 5-1 Kansas Jayhawks. The Sooners outscored the Jayhawks 45-31 last year in Norman. This year there will be no Sam Bradford, no Jermaine Gresham, and a withered OU offensive line will be without Senior Left Guard Brian Simmons.

Neither team has run the ball very well this year but Kansas will have experience behind center in Todd Reesing, the forgotten power thrower in the Big XII. Reesing is coming off consecutive 400-yard passing games, despite losing to Colorado last week. Kansas has alos been successful getting sacks, ranking 9th nationally just 1/2 sack less per game then the fearsome Sooner pass rush. Whichever team establishes the run wins.

Oklahoma is favored by 7.5 and I like them to win, but not to cover the spread. Sooners by 3.

3. Will the protege beat the student?
Long before Urban Meyer was giving Tim Tebow eskimo kisses, Urb was rebuilding programs with offensive coordinator Dan Mullen. If anyone knows the nuances of the Tebow super spread, it’s Mullen. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the defense to stop it, even as unspectacular as Florida has been on offense this year.

MSU has been dreadful in the turnover department this year which is partly to blame for their 3-4 record. If they can flip that Saturday night, it could make for an interesting night, especially considering how uninspiring the Gators have played the last two games. Both teams will look to run the ball a lot so possessions will be at a premium, further stressing the importance of turnovers.

Florida is favored by 23 but I’m crazy enough to pick MSU in the stunner at home.

4. How much Jacquizz would Jacquizz Jacquizz if Jacquizz could Jacquizz JaUSC?
Doubtful. The USC Trojans may be a team fed off emotion, and they’ll certainly be drained from the struggling road game 2,000 miles away last week, but the game this Saturday comes down to pride. And if anyone on the Trojan team has pride, it’s the baddest safety in college football Taylor Mays (maybe second baddest to Eric Berry). Mays, if but for no one else, should prevent a repeat of the 189 yard 4 TD performance from Jacquizz last year. That plus the fact that the game is in the Coliseum translates to a USC win, but it sure would make for a fun Saturday should they lose. Trojans are favored by 21.

5. Will Penn State exercise their Michigan demons?
Not since 1996 have the Nits won in the big house and PSU is 1-4 in the last five meetings overall with the only win coming last year against the Michigan JV squad. The Penn State defense has played very strong this year but haven’t yet faced an offense in the top half statistically. They will in Michigan.

The Penn State offense should have no trouble moving the ball against a Wolverine “defense” that’s giving up 130 yards per game on the ground, 230 yards through the air and not getting any pressure on opposing quarterbacks (86th nationally in sacks).

I expect RichRod to throw in his usual contribution to the “wtf” plays of the week by putting in Denard Robinson in passing situations and going for it on 4th and 4 from the red zone, their own red zone. Despite all that I think Michigan will make a game of it and yes, they will beat Penn State (by 1). Penn State is favored by 4.5.

6. What will it take for Tennessee to knock of # 1/2 Alabama?
Alabama is unbeaten but a formula exists to do just that.

step 1: Shut down the running game. Running Back Mark Ingram is a bad mammer-jammer. If you’re going to beat the Tide, you have to contain rushing attack.

step 2: Get some rest. Alabama delivers a beating. Getting a bye week to get ready for the Tide is a must.

step 3: Counter with a balanced offense. Alabama’s defense is very good but if you can show some diversity on offense, you’ve got a chance to keep them off balance.

step 4: Take Julio Jones out of the game. Jones has been quiet this year with only one touchdown and ranking fourth on the team in reception, but he’s a threat to take a game over at any time with his size and leaping ability.

step 5: Have a teen heart throb for a head coach. Well, it can’t hurt I suppose.

It’s about time for Lane Kiffin to put his money where his mouth is, wouldn’t you agree?

This game sets up perfectly for Tennessee. Though they haven’t been getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, they’ve got the ability to limit rushing yards and they’ve got one of the best secondaries in the country. It will be a supreme challenge to slow down Mark Ingram but with Rico McCoy and Eric Berry playing close to the line of scrimmage, UT will have a shot.

Tennessee counters with a decent running game of their own. It has been a patchwork offensive line this season but Montario Hardesty ranks 12th nationally and when he’s resting, they counter with all-everything recruit true Freshman Bryce Brown.

The Volunteers are coming off a bye so they’ll be rested, and the week before the bye mercurial (and by mercurial I mean mostly sucky) Quarterback Jonathan Crompton went off on Georgia going 20-of-27 for 310 yards and four touchdowns.

UT will need a couple turnovers and will need another very strong performance from Crompton in order to pull off the win, and somehow I think they’ll get it. Volunteers by 6 at home. Alabama is favored by 15.

7. Is Iowa the reincarnation of the 2002 Buckeyes?
Just might be. The Hawkeyes venture into East Lansing Saturday night for a green out, Dantonio style. Iowa is winning with a good defense, big plays on offense when they need it, good special teams and forcing turnovers.

Their offense is quite unremarkable, not ranking in the top 30 in any statistical category, yet they get plays when they need it. QB Ricky Stanzi has thrown 11 touchdowns against 8 interceptions but he seems to have a knack for hitting the open receiver, particularly Tight End Tony Moeaki who is the team leader in receptions (only 20).

The strength of the Hawkeyes is their offensive line and they will be tested from a Sparty defensive front that is very active, ranking 11th nationally in sacks. If Michigan State can get to Stanzi and force some turnovers, it could be a long night Hawkeye fans. The game is a pick ‘em so it wouldn’t be an upset by Vegas standards for MSU to win, but Iowa is ranked # 6 so an upset by those standards. I like Michigan State to win.

8. Letdown for Texas?
Doubt it. The Longhorns have to play a night game at Missouri but this is not the ‘07 or ‘08 Tiger team, not even close. Missouri looked ready to make some noise after their season opening beating of Illinois but they’ve lost two conference games in a row and the win over Illinois matters less and less as the weeks go on.

The night game at home might be worth something to Missouri but I think Texas will work on establishing the running game, and will be effective in doing so, and they’ll win. Texas is favored by 12.5.

9. Is TCU ranked 8th?
Yes they are. They’ll go on the road at night against # 16 BYU. Call it analysis fatigue but I’m half-assing this one. Matchup of the game will be BYU’s offense against TCU’s defense. I like BYU to pull off the upset at home. TCU is favored by 2.5.

10. Might Oregon get caught looking ahead to USC?
Oregon travels to Washington to play a tricky 3-4 Husky team. This thing is sounding big time upset alerts. Oregon is favored by 10 but 99% of the money in Vegas is going to Washington. That should tell you all you need to know.

Oregon has the Pac-10 championship on their mind with USC coming into town for a night game next weekend, but Washington has already shown they’re a team you can’t sleep on. That said, I’ll say this as delicately as I can, the Huskie defense sucks. 86th in rushing d, 110th in passing d, 87th in scoring defense. Ick. I’m taking Oregon in this one in a close one.

You’re welcome.

I was in Florida for business this week and ended up in Gainesville for lunch. The Garden Café in Gainesville to be more specific. If you ever happen upon the Garden Café, you’ll find this signed photo hanging (among others):

The photo quality stinks (Blackberry phone) but the picture should bring back nightmares for Buckeye fans nonetheless. The photo is of a helmetless Florida Linebacker Earl Everett blowing up Troy Smith (one of many such situations if you recall). The photo is autographed by Everett and also written in on the back of Troy’s jersey is “Heisman”. That about sums up that game- still painful after all these years too.

For the record the french dip sandwich was cold and the sweet potato fries were average, neither of which I finished because I was staring at that picture the entire meal.

Here’s a clearer picture of that event in case you’re not haunted yet.

The first BCS standings come out Monday so expect everybody to be on their best behavior this weekend. Several key matchups loom, with a Cincinnati-South Florida game already in the books. I also made it to Tampa this week to catch that game live.

As an eye witness I can tell you Cincy is not a pretender and they’re not a contender, they’re somewhere in between. Losing QB Tony Pike for at least a week should make things interesting against Pittsburgh but their backup QB Zach Collaros looks like Tim Tebow in waiting (gasp). I don’t see them losing any more games this season but only time will tell.

On to Ten Questions…

1 & 2. The Red River Shootout- Can Texas run it? Can OU protect Sam Bradford? Talk about the difference a year can make. At the beginning of this season, there were several scenarios I thought might present themselves for OU-Texas this year, a 20th ranked two-loss Oklahoma team wasn’t in any of those. OU gets Wide Receiver Ryan Broyles back from injury which should help, but the losses on offense for OU may be too much to overcome.

On the Texas side, the Longhorns lost three of their defensive linemen to the NFL but they still have Sergio Kindle, Roddrick Muckelroy, and Sam Acho- good enough for 20th nationally in sacks. They’ll need to get to Sam Bradford in order to affect timing.

Also of note for Texas is the amount of carries, or lack of Colt McCoy is taking. His carries are way down this year, as are his yards per (1.7 vs. 4.1) and touchdowns on the ground (1 TD this year, 11 last year). Texas has running back by committee this year, which is to say they don’t have anyone that can really dominate. In fact, over the last two games, they don’t have anyone that’s gotten more than ten carries. That’s a problem. That screams for Colt running the ball to make a difference in the outcome of the game- he’s clearly capable and he hasn’t taken nearly the hits he took last year so should be fresher.

The final piece to the puzzle is obviously Texas WR Jordan Shipley- a playmaker whenever he’s on the field. Dan Buckner is the other key target for Texas at receiver but Shipley is the guy that makes the offense go. It will be fun to watch Shipley vs. either of the veteran Cornerbacks for OU- Dominique Franks or Brian Jackson.

I think the game will be unusually low scoring (at least by Big XII standards), and because of that it could go either way. I like Texas to win and avenge the wrong done unto them by the Big XII rules last year. Texas is favored by 3.

3. Can Clausen put USC in a pickle? (see what I did there- Clausen. Pickle. I’ll give you a minute to catch your breath).

The only real drama in this game for me is if USC Freshman QB Matt Barkley can play without mistakes in another hostile environment and what will happen to Charlie Weis and the Notre Dame team if and when they lose.

The stakes can’t be bigger for Notre Dame what with Weis’ job and a potential BCS matchup on the line. For USC, the season already has a transitional feel to it so there’s less to risk.

With Notre Dame not getting consistent enough rushing and getting absolutely torched in their secondary, it’s going to take a flawless performance at home for the Irish to win, and as tight as they’re likely to be, I don’t see it happening. I like USC by a couple touchdowns. The Trojans are favored by 10.

4. Which Georgia Tech team is going to show up against the Hokies? Georgia Tech is able to put up points; in bunches even. The trouble for them is stopping the other team.

In their key wins over Clemson and Florida State, they simply outscored and outlasted their opponents. Against the Miami Hurricanes they couldn’t score or move the ball when they needed to. They’ll be faced with a similar dilemma when Virginia Tech comes into town Saturday.

Hokie QB Tyrod Taylor is capable of laying some steaming piles on the field, witness his 9-for-20 game against Alabama or throw up the film from half a dozen games last year. Unfortunately for Georgia Tech, their defense is probably not even equivalent to ‘Bama’s scout team.

I really want Georgia Tech to win because that removes another team from Ohio State’s path (to where, I’m not sure), but I think the Hokies are going to be too much offensively. Virginia Tech is favored by 3.

5. Might South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia earn his scholarship this week? Actually, Garcia’s stats aren’t all that bad this year- 61% completion, 9 TD’s, 3 INT’s. Still, when you watch South Carolina play on offense, it feels like time is standing still; and not the good times.

The South Carolina defense is decent, particularly stingy against the pass so the game at Alabama should be a low scoring affair. Like Georgia Tech, I’ll be rooting hard for South Carolina to pull the upset, and they might have been able to if this game were in SC, it’s not and unfortunately ‘Bama wins. Tide is favored by 18.

6. Will Arkansas spoil Homecoming? The 3-2 Razorbacks head to the Swamp to battle #1 Florida. Arkansas has the 10th ranked pass offense while Florida has the #1 pass defense- that matchup alone is worth the watch. Beyond that though I’m not sure it’s going to be much of a game. Arkansas’ D is not good and their offense is sure to be stifled by a fantastic Florida defense. Florida wins; they’re favored by 24.5.

7. Will Wisconsin knock off the only Big Ten unbeaten? Iowa has a tricky trip to Camp Randall Saturday to take on the Badgers. Wisconsin has potential but can’t make the kind of mistakes they did last week against Ohio State, and they’ll need to protect their QB much better after giving up 6 sacks to the Buckeyes. I don’t believe in comparing games against common opponents, but it will be interesting to see how Iowa’s defensive line performs against Wiscy after OSU’s dominating performance last week.

To me this game simply comes down to John Clay- he must dominate in order for Wisconsin to win. He has the size and ability to take over a game, and if he does he takes the pressure off his still inexperienced QB and an average defense. Believe it or not, the Badgers are favored (by 2.5) and I like them to win.

8. The ultimate trick play- punting on 3rd down? On Columbus radio this week, Kirk Herbstreit suggested that the Buckeyes might be better off running it up the middle three plays in a row and then just punting, in hopes that the defense can score. I’d take it a step further. Teach Terrelle the rugby kick and punt a few on third down. That’ll really catch Purdue off guard and swing field position for sure.

Perhaps they can run a couple variations off of it- like the fake punt-pass and fake punt-option. Hell- that defense is nasty enough- I say we punt on 1st down. We just stopped you three and out. Here’s the ball again bitches- it’s on. At least we know the defense can score.

Reports from West Lafayette indicate the field is going to be very sloppy tomorrow so expect plenty of running, which clearly favors the Buckeyes. Purdue has been bad against the run and horrible in the turnover department, two things that will give Tress an extra spring in his step Saturday morning. I like Buckeyes to win by 17; they’re favored by 13.5.

9. Can Texas Tech get their pirate-swaggerrrrr back with a win on the road against Nebraska? Nebraska is favored by 10.5 at home but Texas Tech needs a win bad. I like the Red Raiders to pull off the upset.

10. SEC spotlight game of the week: 3-3 Georgia @ 2-4 Vanderbilt- how awesome is the SEC? The answer of course is “more awesome than you can comprehend”. Georgia fans have to be getting tired of starting the season with dreams of a national championship and finishing the season with the reality of the Citrus Bowl (or Chick-fil-a). Ooh- sorry, I did forget the 1-1 record in Sugar Bowls too- my bad. Georgia is favored by 8. The SEC wins either way because as we all know, they’re the best conference in the country, hands down. Unless you’re actually watching the games.

It’s officially rivalry week in the Big XII. Here are some of the answers we got from Saturday…

1. To Tebow or not to Tebow?
What I wrote:

Tebow is a game-time decision according to Urban Meyer, and why wouldn’t he be. Florida clearly improves their chances of winning if LSU is forced to spend time practicing against what Tebow provides in addition to a more human-like offense as will be navigated by backup John Brantley.

I don’t think there’s any way Tebow plays so Brantley gets the start and Florida uses the Wildcat with either/both Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps. Although, it shouldn’t really be called the Wildcat in Florida’s offense, it should be called the Tebow. 8pm Saturday, CBS. Florida is favored by 8.5; I like Florida to pull out the win in a low scoring affair.

The answer:
Nailed that one- Florida did win in a low scoring affair. Tebow played and didn’t look any worse for the wear despite taking a hit that could have been fatal two weeks ago. Winning a night game in Death Valley isn’t to be taken lightly, but LSU was exposed for exactly what they are- a one-dimensional offense with questions on both lines. And they’re sloppy, something that isn’t unique to this year. LSU gave up five sacks Saturday night and committed nine penalties, including three false starts and four offsides at home. I’ll repeat that- at home.

The Florida defense is extraordinary and the offense can dominate at times, but they are far from the unbeatable SEC power they’re being made out to be. Their multi-directional fifteen backs in the backfield rushing attack is impressive but the closest they have to a play maker at receiver is Senior Riley Cooper, who has 17 receptions on the season and a long of 68 and Aaron Hernandez who’s a Tight End (albeit a good one).

A step further, I believe the SEC to be highly overrated this year with two good teams (not great), eight average teams and two crappy teams. Hardly the description of dominance. Florida can sleepwalk into the SEC Championship game but know this, we won’t know how good they really are this year until the BCS Championship game, by then it may be too late.

2. Will there be enough O-Linemen to field a one-deep?
What I wrote:

Flu strains have hit Ohio State particularly hard this week with Offensive Linemen shuttling in and out of the nurse’s station. Young players getting experience will help depth later in the season but isn’t good for the here and now.

I should be more concerned about Wisconsin than I am, what with the underdog road team winning 5 of the last 8 meetings. Junior QB Scott Tolzien has played very well this year but he’s not what worries me about Wiscy- it’s Running Back John Clay that Buckeye fans need to watch. Ohio State will do everything they can to shut down Clay, and if they can keep him under 75 yards on the day, it will be an easy victory. Clay has 7 touchdowns on the season and rushed for nearly 200 yards against Minnesota last week.

As will be the case for nearly every remaining game on OSU’s schedule, the outcome is in Pryor’s hands. He needs to play smart and let the game come to him. Wisconsin’s defense has some holes that Pryor should be able to exploit, and he’ll need to. The Badgers also have some special teams deficiencies so the Buckeyes should be able to take advantage of that on kick and punt returns.

Saturday 3:30pm, ABC. Ohio State is favored by 16. I like Ohio State to win at home knocking off the undefeated Badgers.

The answer:
Thanks to defense and special teams, Ohio State did win. I shouldn’t be surprised at how the OSU offense struggles as they try to find their identity, but it’s absolutely criminal to see them waste a championship caliber defense. 87 yards passing is enough to make Oakland Raider Jamarcus Russell blush. In fact, considering the 121 yards of INT returns and the Ray Small 96-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, the defense and special teams out-gained the offense 217 to 184.

Just like USC and each previous offensive line that the Buckeyes have faced, the defensive line continues to manhandle opponents, getting heavy pressure with only four, sometimes three. The Buckeyes are averaging 3 sacks per game (12th nationally) and getting 6 tackles-for-loss per game. Rushing defense is 12th; pass defense is 30th; scoring defense is 7th. And four of the six offenses they’ve played are in the top 55 nationally in scoring so not too many lambs.

The truth for the Buckeyes is if they can get any shred of consistent production from the offense, the Big Ten is theirs for the taking.

3. Will Iowa move to 6-0?
What I wrote:

In a word, yes. It’s a night game at Iowa. Michigan will be without Running Back Carlos Brown. Iowa’s defense is very good. Michigan’s defense is very bad. Despite Ricky Stanzi struggling a little of late, I like Iowa to win by at least 14. Saturday 8:05pm, ABC. Iowa is favored by 8.

The answer:
Got the pick right but the game was definitely much closer than I expected with Iowa pulling out a 30-28 victory. Michigan had five turnovers including one in the closing seconds when Denard Robinson was in, inexplicably so in an obvious passing situation. The fact that RichRod would play Robinson and not Forcier is the type of miscalculation usually reserved for Ron Zook and Les Miles. Though I do wonder about Forcier’s conditioning. He looks completely winded by the time the 4th quarter rolls around.

Iowa remains undefeated and in control of the Big Ten but has road games at Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State remaining. Iowa is playing good defense, getting good production from the running game, and getting big plays when they need them, especially on 3rd downs. They’re far from unbeatable though with plenty of questions.

With razor thin victories over two inferior I-AA opponents it remains to be seen what Iowa will do over lesser Big Ten opponents like Indiana & Northwestern. The verdict is still out on QB Ricky Stanzi. Despite wins over Penn State and Michigan, Stanzi has 8 interceptions on the year vs. only 10 touchdowns. He’s also been sacked 12 times. With only a 56% completion percentage, I like Ohio State’s chances right now against Iowa.

4. 5-0 Auburn?
What I wrote:

Gene Chizik-led Auburn has gotten off to a pretty quiet 5-0 start but aren’t under the radar any more. They’ve got some problems stopping the run and they’ve got some special teams issues but Arkansas is ranked 95th in rushing so no worries there. I like Auburn to move to 6-0 with a win on Saturday. 12pm, ESPN/360. Auburn is favored by a mere 2.5.

The answer:
A shoot and a miss. Arkansas 44 - Auburn 23. It wasn’t Auburn’s offense that was in question coming into Saturday, it was the defense; and the Tiger defense failed miserably. Auburn gave up 28 first downs and almost 500 yards of offense to Arkansas, a team that’s been productive against everybody they’ve played except Alabama. Add Auburn to the list of “not serious title contenders” and the “damn it’d be awesome if we had a defense” list.

5. Can Bobby win the Board of Trustees game?
What I wrote:

Bowden has taken crap from the Board of Trustees about him sucking the life out of the program he built and whatnot, so imagine how pleasant it will get Sunday after the ‘Noles drop one to Georgia Tech and move to 2-4. Despite the game being played at Florida State and being a must win, I think Georgia Tech wins by a point. Saturday 8:00pm, ESPN2/360. FSU is favored by 3.

The answer:
I called Georgia Tech to win by a point and they won by five. Despite a hard as nails performance from FSU QB Christian Ponder, the Seminoles couldn’t get it done and now stand at 2-4 overall. Stunningly, it’s the hallmark of Seminole greats gone by- the defense- that’s letting this team down. 98th in rush defense; 101st in pass defense; 87th in scoring defense; 50th in sacks. This is not the Mickey Andrews defense of old. Save an underdog rivalry win over Florida, the Bobby Bowden and Mickey Andrews legacy looks to finish in disappointing fashion.

6. Is a look ahead game still a look ahead game if Robert Griffin doesn’t take the field?
What I wrote:

If Robert Griffin weren’t out for the season for Baylor, this game might be more interesting than it’s going to be. Sam Bradford comes back and OU rolls in preparation for Texas next week. Saturday 3:30pm, ABC/360. OU is favored by 28.

The answer:
OU rolled 33-7. Not much else to say here. Next up for OU is Texas.

7. Can we please get some decent Mormon jokes this week?
What I wrote:

Always a treat when one of the nation’s more pious fan bases travels to the official university of sin city. BYU has won four and a row and that trend will continue Saturday at 10:00pm. BYU is favored by 16.5.

BYU 59 - UNLV 21.

You’re welcome.

You’re welcome.

Abbreviated ten questions this week, not because the games are any less special, just lazy…

1. To Tebow or not to Tebow? Tebow is a game-time decision according to Urban Meyer, and why wouldn’t he be. Florida clearly improves their chances of winning if LSU is forced to spend time practicing against what Tebow provides in addition to a more human-like offense as will be navigated by backup John Brantley.

I don’t think there’s any way Tebow plays so Brantley gets the start and Florida uses the Wildcat with either/both Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps. Although, it shouldn’t really be called the Wildcat in Florida’s offense, it should be called the Tebow. 8pm Saturday, CBS. Florida is favored by 8.5; I like Florida to pull out the win in a low scoring affair.

2. Will there be enough O-Linemen to field a one-deep? Flu strains have hit Ohio State particularly hard this week with Offensive Linemen shuttling in and out of the nurse’s station. Young players getting experience will help depth later in the season but isn’t good for the here and now.

I should be more concerned about Wisconsin than I am, what with the underdog road team winning 5 of the last 8 meetings. Junior QB Scott Tolzien has played very well this year but he’s not what worries me about Wiscy- it’s Running Back John Clay that Buckeye fans need to watch. Ohio State will do everything they can to shut down Clay, and if they can keep him under 75 yards on the day, it will be an easy victory. Clay has 7 touchdowns on the season and rushed for nearly 200 yards against Minnesota last week.

As will be the case for nearly every remaining game on OSU’s schedule, the outcome is in Pryor’s hands. He needs to play smart and let the game come to him. Wisconsin’s defense has some holes that Pryor should be able to exploit, and he’ll need to. The Badgers also have some special teams deficiencies so the Buckeyes should be able to take advantage of that on kick and punt returns.

Saturday 3:30pm, ABC. Ohio State is favored by 16. I like Ohio State to win at home knocking off the undefeated Badgers.

3. Will Iowa move to 6-0? In a word, yes. It’s a night game at Iowa. Michigan will be without Running Back Carlos Brown. Iowa’s defense is very good. Michigan’s defense is very bad. Despite Ricky Stanzi struggling a little of late, I like Iowa to win by at least 14. Saturday 8:05pm, ABC. Iowa is favored by 8.

4. 5-0 Auburn? Gene Chizik-led Auburn has gotten off to a pretty quiet 5-0 start but aren’t under the radar any more. They’ve got some problems stopping the run and they’ve got some special teams issues but Arkansas is ranked 95th in rushing so no worries there. I like Auburn to move to 6-0 with a win on Saturday. 12pm, ESPN/360. Auburn is favored by a mere 2.5.

5. Can Bobby win the Board of Trustees game? Bowden has taken crap from the Board of Trustees about him sucking the life out of the program he built and whatnot, so imagine how pleasant it will get Sunday after the ‘Noles drop one to Georgia Tech and move to 2-4. Despite the game being played at Florida State and being a must win, I think Georgia Tech wins by a point. Saturday 8:00pm, ESPN2/360. FSU is favored by 3.

6. Is a look ahead game still a look ahead game if Robert Griffin doesn’t take the field? If Robert Griffin weren’t out for the season for Baylor, this game might be more interesting than it’s going to be. Sam Bradford comes back and OU rolls in preparation for Texas next week. Saturday 3:30pm, ABC/360. OU is favored by 28.

7. Can we please get some decent Mormon jokes this week? Always a treat when one of the nation’s more pious fan bases travels to the official university of sin city. BYU has won four and a row and that trend will continue Saturday at 10:00pm. BYU is favored by 16.5.

You’re welcome.

Following up on the questions leading into the weekend…

1. Which top ten team is going to lose this week? Turns out four- Mississippi, Cal, Penn State and Miami. That’s ten top 10 teams that have lost in the first four weeks of the 2009 college football season.

2. Which Juice Williams is coming to Columbus Saturday? Bad Juice was on the drink menu Saturday. 13-for-25 passing for 77 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and worst of all only 18 yards rushing on 15 carries (and one of those carries was for 16 yards so you do the math). The loss could have been Illinois’ Waterloo as the sledding doesn’t get much easier- Penn State and Michigan State in consecutive weeks with Michigan and Cincinnati still looming. We’re going to find out next week if Coach Zook has lost the team or not.

3. Is this the year Steve Spurrier gets fired at South Carolina? Largely under the national media radar is the incredible mediocrity Spurrier has achieved at South Carolina. Spurrier is in his 5th year at SC posting previous records of 7-5, 8-5, 6-6 and 7-6, and not finishing any of those four season ranked in the top 25. The ‘ole ball coach is banking $1.75 million per year and has a current deal through 2012. The difficulty in the SEC and his Gator legacy aside, SS better start winning some games. Tonight would be a great place to start- at home against # 4 Mississippi. 7:30pm, ESPN. Ole Miss favored by 4. Update: what do you know- the ‘ole ball coach still has a few tricks left in the bag. The offense continues to be painful to watch, but the defense did a number on Mississippi.

4. Why isn’t Mark Dantonio following the Michigan State handbook? Sparty lost another crusher, this one wasn’t as close as the previous two though. Dantonio and company are in serious danger of going 1-8 or 2-7 with Michigan, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota in consecutive weeks.

5. Let down time for the Wolverines? Michigan should take care of Indiana at home this Saturday handily (Noon, ESPN2), but this is precisely the kind of game that tests the maturity of a very young team. Update: It sure did test a young Michigan team. The Wolverines didn’t even come close to covering the spread, escaping Bloomington with a 3-point victory. And they needed some help from the referees at the end of the game to stop another Indiana drive. Michigan continues to get torched on defense, ranking 92nd in pass defense and 69th in rush D. Up next for team blue is Michigan State.

6. How white can it get? Turned out to be more blue than white. Unless you’re living under a rock, you know Iowa beat Penn State again.

Looks like they need more cowbell…

What was really surprising was how the Penn State offensive line was completely manhandled by Iowa, particularly on the ends. The Penn State defense performed pretty well in the 1st half but really got pushed around in the 2nd half. The Nits will need to hug it out this week because they’ve got a crumbling Illinois team to face at Illinois on Saturday that could be capable of everything or nothing.

7. Is this the game where it starts going downhill for Notre Dame? Unfortunately not. Thanks to Danny Hope and the Purdue candy stripers, Notre Dame marches on to glorified mediocrity.

8. Hammer or Mallett? Alabama brought the hammer on Mallett making him look like a Playskool toy. Alabama held Mallett to 12-for-35 passing on the way to a 35-7 win. I’m officially on the ‘Bama train, unless they lose to Kentucky this weekend.

9. This game just doesn’t feel right not being played on Thursday night. You know how this one turned out- Virginia Tech completely destroyed Miami, sending them back to 2006 or so.

10. How will Cal fare over a tricky four-pack? After surviving a scrappy Minnesota team last week in Minneapolis, # 6 Cal goes to Oregon to face a wounded Ducks program with infinite uniform choices. If they beat Oregon, they go back home for USC and then play at UCLA. Sound the upset alarm big time. After losing to Boise State in week 1, Oregon got back on the saddle by squeaking by Purdue and beating Utah by a touchdown. If the Ducks are to pull the upset, they’ll need a much better than usual performance from QB Jeremiah Masoli. Update: You know how this one went too- Oregon dismantled Cal. To say that Jeremiah Masoli played well would be an understatement: 21-for-25 passing for 253 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions. Next up for Cal- USC. Oregon gets Washington State.

11. Over or under? The o/u was 73; the total points scored was 57. Go figure that one out. Neither team looked particularly impressive to me, but Houston is all but assured of a BCS berth with that win. Unless of course if Boise State remains ahead of them in the polls.

12. Will Cincinnati go undefeated in 2009? It looks like they might. The Bearcats now stand at 4-0 and don’t have a single ranked team on their schedule. The stiffest remaining tests look to be South Florida and Illinois.

13. Who’s going to win the battle of the little Pac-10 team that could? Stanford knocked off Washington 34-14. Stanford has an intriguing matchup this weekend with UCLA followed by consecutive roadies to Oregon State and Arizona. They finish with Oregon, USC, Cal and Notre Dame.

14. Can Mississippi State find their rush defense and upset # 7 LSU at home (Saturday noon, ESPN360, Gameplan)? Yes and no. MSU held LSU to a season low 31 yards rushing, but got stuffed on a goal line stand in the 4th quarter to end the game in a loss. MSU nearly overcame four turnovers as well, but in the end left a story of what could have been on the field in Oxford.

You’re welcome.

With the bowl announcements happening as I type this, the national championship appears to be set with Florida’s comeback win over Alabama and Oklahoma’s beatdown of another helpless Big XII opponent.

1.) I nailed Florida-Alabama, with the exception that I didn’t give Alabama quite enough credit. Nor did I quite give Percy Harvin quite enough credit- Florida is clearly a different team without him. I wrote:

The only thing that I think will keep it close to the 10 point spread is the injury of Percy Harvin. Florida has loads of playmakers, but Harvin is the guy that most of the offense is built off of. It’s more than the fact that he’s the second-leading rusher and leading receiver on the team; he sets up almost as much production for other players because he garners so much attention. If he’s not playing quality minutes, the Gators will look different on offense, the effect of which could go either way.

The draw play up the middle wasn’t there for Florida (aka “Harvin specialty”), but the passing game was varied and key and in the end, made up for the loss of Harvin. Six different Florida receivers caught passes and three of four touchdowns came through the air.

I was surprised at the success Alabama had on the ground, but the physical play has been their bread and butter. Plus, Glen Coffee is my second favorite running back. That dude’s going to be a good pro.

In the end, it was Tim Tebow putting the Gators on his shoulders and willing his team to the win. Alabama owned the 3rd quarter but Tim Tebow led the Gators to two consecutive scoring drives in the 4th quarter- one for 62 yards, the other for 65 yards. Whether Florida is the 1st or 2nd best team in the country is academic, they’re certainly the best team in the SEC. And for Alabama, they put up a great effort, but the showed to be what they are- a very good defensive team and a pretty one-dimensional offensive team. One could argue that without Julio Jones, ‘Bama could have had three losses this year, not one. That’s why recruiting the premier players does matter- one guy can make the difference.

2.) Missouri could not make a stop against Oklahoma, eventually getting caught up in the offensive tidal wave that is OU. The numbers for the Sooners continue to be gaudy- another 60+ point game, 627 total yards, and a pleasant surprise from the defense holding a solid Tiger offense to 21 points, and only 7 in the first half.

It’s cliche to say it will be nice to see what Oklahoma can do against a good defense. But, it’s worth mentioning that the average ranking of defenses OU has played is 77th and against two of the three best defense OU played (Cincinnati and Texas) OU was held to “only” 35 points. Take that for what it’s worth, but also consider what a good defensive effort on behalf of OU did against the juggernaut that was Texas Tech- holding Texas Tech to only 21 points, their lowest point total by 14 points. For that comparison, I’d rather see OU against USC, but Florida will provide a very good defense to measure against.

Here are the stats from the game:

3.) USC thoroughly dominated UCLA, though the scoreboard didn’t completely reflect it. USC was surprisingly ineffective after the 1st quarter and missed covering the spread by 10 points, hardly the “what about us” dominance USC needed to display while being left out of the national championship. And because of one bad 2nd quarter against Oregon State, even after the emotional win over Ohio State, USC is left completely out of the conversation. If you’ve watched them play this year either on tv or live as I have, you know that defense is scary good, and would provide an amazing game against OU, Texas, or Florida. Too bad we’ll never see it.

Ahhhhh…Championship weekend. A time when the fate of playoff seeding hinges on conference games decided by the slimmest of margins. Yeah, not so much.

Instead, we’ve got a three-loss team playing a four-loss team in the ACC, neither of which are in the top 15 of the BCS, playing for an automatic BCS bid. We’ve got two teams playing each other in the Big XII with Oklahoma getting a NC birth should they win, but both of whom lost to one-loss Texas in the regular season. And we’ve got a PAC-10 team playing their cross-town rival in what amounts to the PAC-10 Championship due to tie-breakers, but the spread is 30 1/2.

Unfortunately, chaos isn’t on the menu since the SEC and Big XII games have already been determined to be the “de facto national semifinals”, despite USC, Texas, and Penn State not being invited to the soiree.

1.) Is Florida as good as I think they are? I detailed this week what I don’t like about Alabama. Most analysts this week have hedged their bets by saying they like Florida to win, but in a close game over Alabama. I like Florida to win big. The only thing that I think will keep it close to the 10 point spread is the injury of Percy Harvin. Florida has loads of playmakers, but Harvin is the guy that most of the offense is built off of. It’s more than the fact that he’s the second-leading rusher and leading receiver on the team; he sets up almost as much production for other players because he garners so much attention. If he’s not playing quality minutes, the Gators will look different on offense, the effect of which could go either way.

2.) Can the Missouri defense make a stop? Oklahoma State tried to match scores with Oklahoma last week, and they ran out of bullets in the 4th quarter. Missouri will have to do the same, and will come up short as Okie State did unless their defense can come up with a couple key stops in the 2nd half. Missouri QB Chase Daniel will also need to play out of his mind to keep the Tigers close. He’s been the odd man out in the Big XII QB lovefest this year, and is also a fiery guy, so expect him to play really well, or really bad. Oklahoma is going to win but for the sake of a good game, I’m hopeful Missouri can cover the 16.5 point spread.

3.) Will USC hold UCLA to negative points? You may recall this little gem earlier in the season (to which the USC fan response is at the top of the post):

One look at the statistics below and it’s hard to imagine UCLA will be able to do anything positive on offense or defense against big brother. That’s why Vegas made USC more than a four-touchdown favorite and yet 55% of the money still has gone to USC. Here’s hoping Rick Neuheisel has saved a couple dozen tricks for the game that will define his career at UCLA. I’ll consider it a victory if the Bruin offense crosses the 50.

While I still have nightmares from my September trip to the Coliseum, it would be too neat and tidy for USC to lose, so in addition to expecting USC to win big, I’ll be rooting for them to do so as well.

You’re welcome.

If you were paying attention Saturday, you would have noticed that the mighty SEC went 1-for-4 against the lowly ACC with only Florida posting a win over Florida State.

1.) Who needs to pass the ball when you can rush for 409 yards against Georgia? Not Georgia Tech. GT was 1-6 passing for 19 yards Saturday while they rolled up a 7.3 yards per rush average on what was the 15th ranked rush defense. The performance was so bad for Georgia that they fell from 15th to 42nd, and that’s dramatic given how late in the season it is.

Included in Georgia Tech’s 45-42 win over Georgia was a 26-point third quarter, including two consecutive successful 2-point conversions. That quarter combined with the first half against Alabama makes one wonder what kind of leadership Georgia has on their team. Evidence indicates a shortfall.

Also strange was Georgia’s apparent abandonment of the running game. Running Back Knowshon Moreno was limited to 94 yards on only 17 carries. Georgia went from 7 minutes left in the 2nd quarter to ~8 minutes left in the third quarter with Moreno only getting one carry. That’s not exactly the type of strategy you want to employ when you’re playing a ball-hogging rush happy team, and the net result was a 7 minute advantage in time of possession for Georgia Tech.

2.) I called for a rout of Alabama over helpless Auburn, and that’s exactly what happened. Auburn added three turnovers to a pathetic 170-yard offensive output in a 36-0 loss. Auburn finishes the season 5-7 including losses in 6 of their final 7 games. An awfully disappointing finish for a pre-season top ten team.

3.) Regarding Florida-Florida State, I wrote:

Can Florida State re-ignite former glory to beat their rival? If they’re going to, they’ll need an inspired performance from the defense. FSU has shown glimpses this year of the kind of dominating defense they used to have, and there have also been sparks on offense. They’re getting quality yards on the ground from running backs Antone Smith and Jermaine Thomas. The key will be a mistake-free game from QB Christian Ponder. In Florida State’s three losses, Ponder has thrown seven interceptions, vs. only six the other eight games.

Because this game is in Tallahassee, I like Florida State to cover (15.5) but lose to the unstoppable force that is the Gators right now.

Florida State got enough on the ground to be competitive but got two interceptions from Christian Ponder plus a third chipped in by D’Vontrey Richardson. They also managed to give up 317 net yards on the ground to Florida.

4.) Texas Tech needed 14 points in the 4th quarter to hold off Baylor 35-28. I guess the Red Raiders and Mike Leach were a little mopier than I thought they’d be.

5.) I called the Oregon win over Oregon State, though I was still surprised at the way it came to pass. Oregon State gave up a staggering 694 yards of offense to the Ducks. Four turnovers didn’t help the cause either but losing 65-38 to your biggest rival with a Rose Bowl berth on the line is one hell of a crushing way to finish the season.

6.) Oklahoma State had the Sooners where they wanted them only down by three in the 4th quarter. That is until Oklahoma scored 17 unanswered including the score to put them over 60 with 25 seconds to go. The offensive display was bombastic with each team trading touchdown after touchdown, and over 1,000 total yards of offense. I hate the BCS but I’m anxious to see a Big XII offense against a decent defense.

7.) I called USC big over Notre Dame, 40+ big. That didn’t quite happen with a final score of 38-3. It was every bit of an ass-kicking that the score suggested with USC holding a final yardage advantage of 449-91. The offense may be slightly above average, but that USC defense is very, very special.

How would you like to be a Texas Longhorn fan today? You need Oklahoma to beat Oklahoma State because if OU loses, Texas Tech takes the Big XII South tiebreaker over Texas. But, if Oklahoma wins too big, than OU will certainly leapfrog Texas in the BCS, which would be the tiebreaker for the three-way tie that would result. Confused? You can thank the presidents of our fine universities for that.

Here’s the weather forecast:

1.) Will Georgia Tech have enough surprises with the triple option to upset Georgia? Georgia Tech is coming off a loss to North Carolina and has wins over two I-AA on their resume. Still, it will be interesting to see Coach Paul Johnson making his Tech debut in the rivalry game. And if you’re a Buckeye- it will be a good opportunity to scout your potential bowl opponent. I like Georgia to win.

2.) Can Auburn scrape together enough points to stay close with Alabama? Don’t count on the offense to do it. Auburn has been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2008 season and they’re going to need turnovers, short fields, and points from the defense to stay close. Don’t expect it to happen though- I like ‘Bama big at home.

3.) Can Florida State re-ignite former glory to beat their rival? If they’re going to, they’ll need an inspired performance from the defense. FSU has shown glimpses this year of the kind of dominating defense they used to have, and there have also been sparks on offense. They’re getting quality yards on the ground from running backs Antone Smith and Jermaine Thomas. The key will be a mistake-free game from QB Christian Ponder. In Florida State’s three losses, Ponder has thrown seven interceptions, vs. only six the other eight games.

Because this game is in Tallahassee, I like Florida State to cover (15.5) but lose to the unstoppable force that is the Gators right now.

4.) Will Baylor take advantage of the beaten ego that is Texas Tech? Not bloody likely. Mike Leach doesn’t seem to be the mopey type of coach that loses rebound games. Baylor is decent but I like Texas Tech to rebound nicely.

5.) Will Oregon State clinch the Rose Bowl berth with a win at home over Oregon tonight? The Buckeyes are pulling for Oregon big- a win by the Ducks gets Ohio State into the BCS. I like Oregon to win because of a quality rushing attack and no Jacquizz Rogers for Oregon State. Plus two Pac-Ten teams in the BCS sounds filthy.

6.) Will Oklahoma clinch their spot in the Big XII title game vs. Oklahoma State? Oklahoma was very emotional in dominating Texas Tech at home last week. They’re going to be challenged to be up emotionally once again on the road against a very good Okie State team. The Cowboys are the forgotten team in the Big XII South this year, and will be looking to finish their regular season off on a high note. It’s awfully hard to pick against Oklahoma after watching them last week, but I’m hopeful Oklahoma State can keep it close.

7.) Will Notre Dame cover the 29 point spread against USC? Not win, just cover the spread. They’ll only cover the spread if they can hold USC to 28, because I don’t think they’re going to score on USC. I like USC big, like 40+ big.

You’re welcome.

1.) I finally hit on my “Texas Tech is going down” mantra. Missed on the final margin though- I picked OU by a couple. What I really meant was OU by almost four dozen. The Sooners got loads of pressure on Graham Harrell sacking him three times, hurrying him all game, and shutting down yards after the catch.

The real difference in the game was running the football. Oklahoma was able to get a stunning 299 yards running on the ground while Texas Tech could manage only 45. Scarier still was OU’s balance on offense- 299 on the ground, 326 through the air.

If OU can beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, they’ll likely jump Texas claiming the Big XII tiebreaker (to get into the Big XII Championship game) and then punch their ticket to Miami.

2.) The Ohio State-Michigan game was even more lopsided than I thought it would be. I remember well the dominance of Michigan in the 90’s and that dominance has come completely full circle with Ohio State now winning five in a row. Even assuming Michigan can find a freshman quarterback that can step in right away next year, they’ve got loads of holes to fill, including replacing most of the defense.

3.) I went conservative on picking Penn State by a few. Two turnovers for Michigan State and a career day for Daryll Clark led the way for a 49-18 Penn State victory. Now it’s a tough spot for the Nittany Lions- either a re-match with Oregon State or a date with USC, neither of which sound very appetizing.

4.) Utah finished up another undefeated season with a win over rival BYU. The Utes now will head to a BCS bowl, likely the Sugar Bowl, and probably against Alabama.

5.) Oregon State got a strong performance from Quarterback Sean Canfield in a win over Arizona. I thought Arizona could pull off the win, but their lack of a decent QB (aka Willie Tuitama) struck again. Even without Jacquizz (left early with an injury), OSU got just enough productivity and then got some crucial plays at the end of the 4th quarter that led to the game-winning field goal.

The Beavers are one win away from clinching the Pac-10 title and a trip to the Rose Bowl to play Penn State. That win will put Ohio State out of the BCS so put on your day-glo green clothes- we’re Oregon Duck fans this week.

You’re welcome.

Another relatively light Saturday, with only three games involving two ranked teams. With the luster a little off Ohio State -v- Michigan, the weekend feels even lighter.

Here’s the weather forecast:

1.) Will Texas Tech continue their winning on the road? Texas Tech has played only four road games all season, and only one of those against a ranked team (Kansas ranked 23 at the time). TT is in Norman this evening to take on #5 Oklahoma.

Oklahoma boasts a slightly better offense than Tech but also a slightly worse defense. Points will come in bushels tonight so it’s safe to say whichever defense can make a stop in the second half will probably win the game. It will be interesting to see if Oklahoma can get pressure on TT QB Graham Harrell- no one has yet this season. Oklahoma comes in with 34 sacks so they at least have the potential to disrupt the Red Raider offense.

I still maintain the only way to slow down Texas Tech is to hit them hard, and sometimes a little late. You’ve got to disrupt the timing and make Graham Harrell and those receivers start to hear footsteps.

I’ve been mistakenly calling for Texas Tech to lose at several points this season. They’ve proved me wrong on several occasions. Well, call me stubborn, but I’m calling for them to lose this week. I like Oklahoma by a couple. Incidentally, if it comes down to field goals, they both have struggled this season with that (OU- 50%, TT- 53%).

2.) Will Michigan turn around their season with a win at Ohio State? Nope. I previewed this one last night. I like Ohio State by 10+.

3.) Will Michigan State pull off the upset at Penn State? I’d like to pick Michigan State here, but with PSU’s loss to Iowa, they’re going to be focused on the win. The game’s in Happy Valley and it’s probably JoePa’s last regular season game as Head Coach. I like the Nits by a few.

4.) Will Utah keep their BCS hopes alive against #14 BYU? They will. BYU will be a tough test, but I’ve had Utah as the non-BCS BCS participant all season and I’m sticking to it. I like the Utah defense to get it done in a very close game.

5.) Will Oregon State keep their Pac-10 championship hopes alive? Win @ Arizona tonight then against Oregon next week in the Civil War and the Beavers are Pac-10 champs. If you’re a Buckeye, you want OSU (the other one) to go down tonight. If Oregon State wins the Pac-10, that puts two Pac-10 teams into the BCS and likely leaves Ohio State out. That’s not the kind of BCS chaos I’m hoping for.

Arizona is coming off a loss to Oregon, but their four losses have been decided by an average of 6 1/2 points. U of A’s 59th ranked rush D is going to have to play lights out in order to avoid getting Jacquizzed. I like Arizona to win at home (not totally an upset- Arizona is favored by 3).

You’re welcome

It’s a good thing I’m not a betting man…

1.) I wrote that South Carolina would cover the 21-point spread against Florida. I couldn’t have been wronger about that. Any questions from anyone about the dominance of Florida right now was soundly answered. The statistics provide the evidence for the beating that South Carolina took:

Florida Offense
519 total yards
346 rushing yards
173 passing yards
46% conversion on 3rd downs

South Carolina Offense
173 total yards
53 rushing yards
120 passing yards
6% conversion on 3rd downs
-2 turnover margin

It all resulted in a 56-6 Florida victory. South Carolina couldn’t get out of its’ own way, making mistake after mistake. The game was ostensibly over toward the end of the 1st quarter. Florida had just gone up 14-0 and South Carolina tried a little trickery on the kickoff return. They fumbled the ball and Florida recovered on the 1/2 yard line, the humor of it all brilliantly pointed out on EDSBS.com.

The game also provided further proof that without quality quarterback play, you can’t compete in big games. South Carolina has gotten 17 touchdowns against 20 interceptions from their three quarterbacks this year. No matter how good your defense is, that QB ratio isn’t going to get it done.

Everything that could go wrong for SC did and everything that could go right for UF did. It was the type of perfect storm game that resulted in an unusually lopsided result, where the losing team isn’t quite as bad as the result, nor is the winning team quite as good. But Florida is very, very good, and is peaking at the perfect time. And in a karma sense, how fascinating it was to watch Spurrier struggle through the very type of beating he used to administer on a frequent basis when he was at Florida.

2.) I was only part right on Ohio State -v- Illinois. Ohio State did win as I predicted and Juice was normal Juice and not Super Juice like he was last year. Statistically speaking, Juice had his best completion percentage game of the season and his 4th best QB rating game, but too many untimely mistakes on both sides of the ball did the Illini in.

Despite not having a consistent running game this season, Illinois was able to rush for 214 yards against the 26th ranked rush D nationally. Unfortunately for Illinois, Ohio State was able to rush for 305 with Beanie doing what Beanie does and Terrelle Pryor going over 100 yards for the first time.

Unfortunately for Ohio State fans, the Buckeyes got the win despite TP only passing the ball 10 times (49 yards total). I’ll take the win but I don’t like the reinforcement of Tressel-ball principles so late in the season. That lack of production, whether pre-meditated or accidental equals a loss to a 2nd or 3rd place SEC/Big XII team in the bowl game. And another long winter in Columbus.

If you missed any of the play-by-play, here’s a fantastic game summary including “the hurdle” over at elevenwarriors.com.

3.) As I predicted, Kansas could not keep it close with Texas, losing by a final score of 35-3. Game summary over at burntorangenation.com. Kansas now stands two games behind Missouri in the Big XII North and with one game left to play, is out of the race. Texas’ path to the Big XII championship involves blowing out Texas A&M this weekend and a close win by Oklahoma over Texas Tech. That’s probably the only way they’ll remain ahead of both OU and TT in the BCS and thus get the tiebreaker in the Big XII South.

4.) Stanford could not make lightning strike twice losing to USC 45-23, though the game was tied 17-17 at the half. The USC defense was vulnerable once again to the run giving up 202 yards but the offense came through with 282 rushing yards and five total touchdowns.

5.) I predicted a close win for Alabama over Mississippi State, and it was on track for that until the MSU special teams went in the toilet. The score was 12-7 Alabama at the half and Mississippi State was hanging tough with the nation’s # 1 team. Until the 3rd quarter that is. Following MSU’s first possession of the second half punter Blake McAdams punted the ball to Javier Arena which he proceeded to run back 80 yards for a touchdown. Score 19-7 Alabama. That was the spark that Alabama needed and they controlled the rest of the game winning by a final score of 32-7.

I still don’t buy into Alabama as the # 1 team but they’re doing what they need to win all their games. And in our current flawed system, that’s all it takes to be champion.

6.) I mistakenly predicted a Troy upset over LSU, one that almost materialized. I also detailed in a previous post how the Troy collapse happened. As I wrote on Friday, Troy needed some turnovers to get the win. They finished the game -2 so clearly that didn’t happen. The turnover problem plus the 4th quarter collapse spelled doom for the little engine that couldn’t.

You’re welcome.

As Saturdays go, this Saturday is pretty weak. Only one game involving two ranked teams, and aside from some payback games, not a whole lot else. Don’t let that lull you to sleep though, that’s when the upsets happen.

Weather will start to be a factor in games (it’s November after all). Here’s the forecast for several of the games this weekend:

1.) Can Spurrier get a victory at the Swamp? South Carolina comes into Gainesville winning 6 of the last 7, but Florida enters the game as the hottest team in the country, having already clinched a spot in the SEC Championship game against Alabama. Florida has to win out to reach the National Championship game, a point Tim Tebow and the Gators likely heard frequently this week. South Carolina needs to finish strong this season, after a disappointing end last year (lost their last five).

I expect Florida to win but I think South Carolina can cover the 21 point spread. Incidentally, Mike Bianchi in the Orlando Sentinel calls the game a “win-win” for the Gators.

2.) Can Ohio State exact revenge on Illinois? Illinois was the sole regular season loss for the Buckeyes last year in a game where Juice Williams played out of his mind. Illinois is even more Jekyl & Hyde this season with the offense leading the conference in total offense and also interceptions given up. They’ll need a near flawless game like last year to put up the win.

The game has a strange feel for the Buckeyes. The annual finale against Michigan doesn’t have the same flavor what with Michigan sucking and all, so this is the competitive finale and a must win if they want to share the conference title with Penn State and/or Michigan State.

The Buckeyes are coming off a dominant performance last week against Northwestern where both the offense and defense performed well. Unfortunately, Ohio State has been a little Jeckyl & Hyde this season as well, often following up good performances with mediocre ones.

I like Ohio State to win because Illinois doesn’t have a running game (aka Rashard Mendenhall) and Juice can’t possibly go the entire 60 minutes without a pick(knocking on ever table in the house). I do like Illinois to cover the 8-point spread at home though.

3.) Can Kansas keep it close against Texas? I don’t think so. Kansas is a beaten poodle having lost three of the last four and giving up a couple thousand yards, including a loss to Nebraska last week. They’re only one game behind Missouri in the Big XII North, but don’t look to be a team that can be counted on. They’ll need a huge game from QB Todd Reesing to keep pace with Texas who should put up 40-50.

Even with a loss, Texas still has a good shot at getting into the National Championship and I expect the Longhorns to play well. Texas is favored by 13 and I like them by at least that much.

4.) Will Stanford upset USC for a second year in a row? No. USC may suffer from the apathy bug every once in awhile but they won’t tonight. Even if the offense isn’t firing (it will), the USC defense will once again control the game and dominate the Cardinal.

It may be a case of blue-bowls (clever, I know) for Stanford who is one win away from being bowl eligible. They must either beat the Trojans this week or Cal next week to go bowling for the first time since 2001.

5.) Will Mississippi State upset # 1 Alabama? No. It’s definitely a trap game for a young Crimson Tide team, coming off an emotionally-draining win over LSU last week, and with Florida looming in the SEC Championship game. Still, it’s at home for ‘Bama and MSU just isn’t that good. The Bulldogs three wins have come against Southeastern Louisiana, Vanderbilt, and Middle Tennessee State. I like Alabama in a close game.

6.) Will Troy upset LSU? Maybe. LSU could be flat after the crushing loss to Alabama last week. They also continue to struggle in the QB department with Jarrett Lee having a horrific game last week (eight interceptions in last three games).

Troy has a decent defense (37th nationally in total D), but will need some turnovers to pull of the upset. LSU is favored by 19 so clearly Vegas isn’t too concerned. I’m feeling generous/wreckless so I’m going with Troy in a November shocker.

You’re welcome.

1.) Alright already. Enough- I give up. Texas Tech is a good team. After watching them throw for over 500 yards against Oklahoma State I’m left with two questions- why not just play quarter defense in the Big XII (7 DB’s- if 5 is nickel and 6 is dime, 7 must be quarter) and how do the opponents of Texas Tech not get a half dozen personal fouls? Seriously, if I’m on the field playing defense against Texas Tech- I don’t think I could stop myself from hitting somebody late- quarterback, wide receivers, Mike Leach, anybody. Them playing offense is like a 60-minute game of keep-away. Most of the game it looked like there was only one Oklahoma State defender on the field and he (or she) was helpless to catch his (or her) baseball hat that Texas Tech had stolen and was throwing around from player to player.

Oklahoma State was throwing everything they possibly could scheme-wise against Texas Tech and it seemed like the Red Raiders knew what was coming every time. Not that I condone violence but the only blueprint that I can see for beating Texas Tech is start hitting Graham Harrell- fashionably late if you have to- so that he starts thinking twice about those cute little 8 yard throws. Then play the DB’s right on the line of scrimmage so they can jam the Wide Receivers. Sure they’ll get beat deep a couple times but that’s less demoralizing than getting 6-8 yarded into oblivion.

Game plan # 2 is much riskier and basically would just involve rushing seven different players every down and praying that the back four will get lucky or that the receivers will start dropping passes. It won’t work, but again, less demoralizing than the alternative.

Next up for Texas Tech is a road trip to Norman. Who knows if Oklahoma can do any better than Okie State did- after all, the Sooners’ pass defense is ranked 90th nationally.

2.) On Friday I wrote “I like LSU to win because they’re at home and I think their defense is going to control the game.” Mark this down as the last time I pick LSU for anything.

LSU did control the game dominating time of possession 33 to 27 minutes. LSU also got 201 yards on the ground from the nation’s 28th best rushing attack. Alabama QB John Parker Wilson was serviceable going 15 of 31 with zero touchdowns and one interception. Bad statistics by any standard but so much better than what LSU got from their quarterback.

With Andrew Hatch out because of injury, Jarrett Lee got sole QB duties for LSU and made the most (least) of his opportunity. Lee went 13 of 34 (38%) for one touchdown and four interceptions. That’s a smoking 69.13 QB rating. Worse still, the first two interceptions resulted in 14 points for Alabama, an important point considering the final margin of loss was six points. The final interception was the most egregious; I’ll set the stage for you…

You’ve got the # 1 team on the ropes- you’re in overtime after they just missed a field goal at the end of regulation. It’s 3rd & 6 and you decide to throw it into the end zone into double coverage. Not dump it off or run it wide with Keiland Williams or Trindon Holliday in order to preserve the field goal. No instead, you throw it into double coverage, Alabama intercepts it, then wins the game. And that could be why Alabama goes undefeated this season. Thanks a lot LSU. The goal is BCS chaos- or had you forgot?

3.) Penn State fell to the November BCS curse, losing to an unranked Iowa team in Iowa City. Penn State QB Darryll Clark was very shaky going 9 of 23 (39%) - perhaps lingering effects from a concussion he suffered at Ohio State two weeks ago. And just the opposite of Ohio State prior, a turnover (Clark’s third interception of the season) turned around the momentum of the game with Iowa driving to kick the winning field goal.

Iowa Sophomore QB Ricki Stanzi did no more and no less than exactly what he needed to- going 3 of 6 in the final drive, and getting the ball enough to Shonn Greene to keep the Penn State defense honest. Stanzi also completed two critical third downs- a 3rd and 10 and a 3rd and 6.

All is not lost for Penn State. As long as they beat Michigan State at home in two weeks, they’ll win the Big Ten’s automatic BCS bid and end the season on a high note. And who knows, they may stumble into the national championship game like Ohio State did last year.

4.) As I predicted, Baylor did keep it close with Texas early trailing 28-14 at the half, but the Longhorns pulled away in the third quarter. Baylor scored a touchdown late in the 4th quarter to keep the final score at 45-21. Texas has a tricky game at Kansas this week before finishing the regular season at home with Texas A&M.

5.) I picked North Carolina to beat Georgia Tech and that’s exactly what happened. I don’t know which conference is less relevant this year- the Big East or the ACC, but I know I don’t really care about either.

6.) As I predicted, Ohio State did beat Northwestern, in even more dominant fashion than I expected. The offensive line still looked vulnerable but Terrelle Pryor is showing progress and occasional flashes of brilliance. And the defense is starting to put all the pieces together at just the right time.

7.) USC’s offense decided to take the week off but the defense continued their dominance holding a decent Cal offense to 165 yards of total offense. USC has the nation’s # 1 scoring defense, # 1 pass defense, and # 3 rush defense, and they look even better than that. The Trojans have Stanford, Notre Dame, and UCLA left, and then have to hope for chaos to let them into the championship. They still lag in the computer polls and the remaining schedule won’t help that any.

You’re welcome.

This weekend looks eerily similar to last weekend- two headliners and a few other games of interest. And even stranger, Lubbock, Texas is at the center of the college football universe for a second straight week.

1.) Game 3 of 4 in the “Big XII Cage Match Series” for Texas Tech. The schedule remains favorable for the Red Raiders with a second consecutive night home game, this time with Oklahoma State. I think Oklahoma State has too much balance on offense for Texas Tech with a 5th best ranking in rush offense and 38th best ranking in pass offense. I like the Cowboys by a point or two (line is Texas Tech by 3.5).

The interesting thing about this game is that as big as it is, Oklahoma State’s only marquis win, in fact their only win over a ranked team was their 5 point win at Missouri. After that, their best “win” was a quality loss at Texas. Both of these teams still have big brother Oklahoma on the schedule, which more consistently than Texas, has been the standard-bearer for the Big XII party (keeping the political terminology going a little longer).

2.) What will the return of Emperor Saban bring?- Alabama @ LSU. I don’t think there’s any real animosity by LSU fans toward Saban- why would there be? He won them a split championship, skipped town to steal a bunch of money from the Miami Dolphins, then returned to the SEC to lead the Crimson Tide. In the meantime, LSU won another championship under their current boss 1/2 mensa Les Miles.

I’m going with the underdog again here, though I’m sure I’ll regret it. LSU has sketchy quarterback play. And by sketchy, I mean sketchy like an etch-a-sketch- simple, two-dimensional, and easily erased by one play. The crime-fighting duo of Hatch and Lee are combining for a 55% completion percentage and 14 touchdowns vs. 11 interceptions. Still, one of them is going to have to make a play today, and I think one of them will.

I like LSU to win because they’re at home and I think their defense is going to control the game. Alabama has the 18th best rushing attack in the country so if LSU can slow that down, they’ll force John Parker Wilson to win the game through the air, and I’m not convinced he’ll be able to do that.

3.) Will Penn State win at Iowa City? If they don’t, the BCS is headed for certain chaos. I think they will, and they’ll need to answer some offensive questions after a stuffy performance at Ohio State two weeks ago. Line is Penn State by 7 1/2.

4.) Can Baylor pull off the upset at Texas? After a 3-point loss to Missouri last week, Baylor will come in confident; also confident because Texas’ pass D stinks (no way to sugar coat 117th nationally). Baylor will keep it close early but Texas will pull away late.

5.) Does anyone care about the ACC? Not this year. Georgia Tech @ North Carolina is as good as it gets in that conference this year. Georgia Tech needs to win to stay atop the ACC Coastal division. I don’t really have a pick here, but I’ll go with North Carolina because I don’t like bees.

6.) What did Ohio State learn in their off-week? Ohio State travels to Northwestern to play a Wildcat team hobbled by injury (at least on the offense). The improved play of the defense has been the story this year for the Wildcats, and they’ll be tested today. The weather looks to be crummy so expected a lot of Beanie Wells and option running from Terrelle Pryor. I like Ohio State big (Tressel-style, by 10 or so).

7.) Can Cal keep it close at home against USC? Don’t count on it. USC has already lost their annual “oh shit” game and the Trojans are fully aware that they’re outsiders for the national championship race. They know their strength of schedule sucks and that they need to keep winning big and hope others lose. And that’s what they’re going to do today- win big.

You’re welcome.

I’m a little hungry- time for some humble pie. Here’s a recap of what mattered this weekend in college football.

1.) I’m not ready to drink the Red Raider-ade yet, but I have to give credit to Texas Tech for beating # 1 Texas. Their defense played better than I expected and their offense took advantage of what they were given. They were able to do three things that were critical to their win.

First and most importantly, Texas Tech was able to score early and make the Longhorns play catchup. After playing three difficult games in a row, Texas was expected to come out flat and Texas Tech took advantage of that. Scoring early also kept the Red Raider fans active throughout the entire game and that’s what home teams need to do.

Second, Texas Tech was able to expose the Longhorn weakness on offense- lack of a real running threat. Texas doesn’t have a single rusher over 500 yards and the leading rusher is QB Colt McCoy. When Texas needed yards on the ground Saturday night, they didn’t get it. The best rushing D left on the schedule is Kansas at 30th so the final three games should allow the Longhorns to work out some kinks.

Third, they didn’t make many mistakes. And more importantly, the biggest mistake they made didn’t materialize because the defensive player dropped the ball. With 15 seconds left and down by 1 point, Graham Harrell misfired with the pass getting tipped. What should have been a surefire interception and game-ender was dropped by Texas freshman safety Blake Gideon. Texas Tech scored a touchdown on the next play and the rest is history.

I wrote on Friday that the key to the game would be Texas’ ability to get pressure on Graham Harrell. Such pressure did not happen. Texas was only able to get two sacks and one of those came in the 4th quarter. More importantly, Harrell was able to do nearly anything he wanted to in the passing game. With trouble in the secondary, Texas needed to blitz early and often. They did not and Texas Tech made them pay, time and time again.

For Texas, they made it through the gauntlet 3-1 with their conference and BCS championship hopes damaged but still alive. They lost a tight but sloppy game and should be able to refocus and come back strong next week.

For Texas Tech, they’re 2-0 through two of four of their gauntlet games. The Red Raider story is a good one, but I wouldn’t pack your bags for Miami just yet. Oklahoma State this week at home and then a road game at Oklahoma in three weeks should prove slightly more difficult than the first leg. If that’s not enough, Texas Tech has upstart Baylor at home in the final week of the regular season.

I still maintain Texas Tech will not be on top of the Big XII at the end of the season but it’s a great story so far.

2.) As I predicted, Florida exacted revenge on the Georgia Bulldogs, but I was still surprised at the ass-kicking Florida was able to drop. As it has often this season for Florida, turnovers cleared the way for a Gator victory. Florida finished the game +4 in turnovers forcing Georgia QB Matthew Stafford into throwing three interceptions (plus a fumble). The Florida defense bent, actually giving the offensive yardage advantage to Georgia, but the turnovers made the difference and Florida served notice that they’re not out of the race for the national championship.

For Georgia, the pre-season # 1, not only is a shot at a national championship likely out of the picture, but the SEC Championship is a longshot now too.

3.) Utah did beat New Mexico to survive their only real test so far (in as much as a win over a 4-6 team on the road can be considered a test). It finally gets interesting in the Mountain West this year when TCU comes into town. Either Utah or TCU will be losing their glass slippers and will fade into the non-BCS ether. Good luck.

4.) The Spartans finally beat the late-season Sparty curse, and you could see the relief on coach Mark Dantonio’s face. They were forgivably flat after beating arch-rival Michigan last week. Add to that the fact that Javon Ringer was held to only 54 yards on 21 carries and you would have expected a sure loss for Michigan State. Not this year.

As I predicted, the Spartans needed QB Brian Hoyer to make some plays. Hoyer was a horrific 19-44 for the game missing several times on what would have been touchdowns. Still, in the final drive Hoyer went 3 for 6 getting the Spartans into field goal range where Brett Swenson nailed the winning kick with 12-seconds to go.

You’re welcome.

Pretty bland weekend with the exception of Florida/Georgia and Texas/Texas Tech. Next weekend isn’t that good either so we’ll have to take what we can get. Here’s what I’m looking forward to:

1.) Time to see if Texas Tech really can play big boy football this year. They looked great blowing out a 5-3 Kansas team last weekend, but # 1 Texas is coming to town. There are multiple story lines here and most favor the Red Raiders. This is the 4th game in a row against top 11 opponents for Texas- can they continue to stay mentally and physically sharp for another 4 quarters? They started to break down in the second half against Oklahoma State last week and can’t afford to do that against a quick strike Texas Tech team. This is also the first real road test for Texas, and it comes in the form of a night game (8pm eastern kick).

Neither team has played well against the pass this season. Texas Tech is giving up 245 yards per game through the air while Texas is giving up 265. The Longhorn secondary is banged up and several freshmen will be on the field on Saturday. Considering the teams are # 1 (TT) and # 11 (UT) in passing offense, this points to the key to the game which is….

Pressure. Texas has to get pressure on Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell. Tech has only given up 3 sacks this year (# 1 in the nation), mostly because of the quick passes utilized in the Red Raider offense. Texas has 29 sacks this year and has gotten many of those from only rushing the front four. Texas is going to need to get pressure from the front and affect Harrell’s throwing lanes with the linebackers.

The Longhorns will also need to do a better job of tackling in space than they did (12 missed tackles last week). Red Raider WR Michael Crabtree is a premier receiver and will score off of only one missed tackle. Texas Tech’s 29 aerial touchdowns have gone to nine different receivers, but Crabtree has 14 of the 29.

On offense, Texas will need Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby to keep making clutch catches; drops won’t get it done today

I like Texas to win and keep their national championship hopes alive.

2.) Who’s the boss of the SEC East? Only one team will be left standing after this game, and I think it will be Florida. Florida is significantly better on defense this year than they were last, especially in the secondary where they will be under fire today from future All-Pro QB Matt Stafford.

I like Florida to win because of quick hitters like Percy Harvin and Jeff Demps and their stingy turnover margin- the Gators are 3rd in the country at + 10 on the season. I also like Florida because of the revenge factor- Urban Meyer will have a couple special treats for Georgia after the Gators were shown up last year. The Kobra Kai dojo always gets even. Always.

3.) Will Utah survive their first road test? It’s time to start weeding out the non-BCS challengers. Utah will need to beat an average but scrappy New Mexico team on the road today. They’re favored by 7.5.

4.) What is Wisconsin made of? 4a.) Is this Michigan State team going to break the annual late-season Spartan crash and burn?

Wisconsin stands second from the bottom in the Big Ten standings with a 1-4 conference record. Plus at 4-4 overall, the Badgers are at risk of not making a bowl game. After Michigan State, the Baaaaadgers have Indiana, Minnesota, and Cal Poly. That’s a slate they should win out but who knows what a loss to the Spartans would do to that.

After losing four games in a row, Wisconsin showed signs of life by beating Illinois last week at Camp Randall. Do they have the leadership to keep it going for a second week after what has been a disappointing season by any definition.

Michigan State is coming off their landmark win over big brother Wolverine. Also, Sparty is 7-2 overall and tied for second with Ohio State for the conference race. MSU has downward spiraling Purdue plus a road game at Penn State after this one, so it’s not unreasonable to think the Spartans could finish 9-3 should they win this game.

The Spartans will attempt to ride Javon Ringer to the win, but ultimately it’s going to fall on QB Brian Hoyer to make some plays. Hoyer has performed at a below average level this year but is coming off his best performance- a 282-yard, 3 touchdown game (albeit against the Michigan secondary). Hoyer won’t need to play that well but pretty close to beat the Badgers.

You’re welcome.

With the losses sustained by both LSU and Ohio State, the BCS picture thinned out in the middle but remained crowded at the top. Here are your questions and answers from week 9:

1.) Regarding Texas Tech -v- Kansas, I questioned TT’s manhood a bit, instructed you to take the over, and suggested Texas Tech would lose. Score me 1 for 3 on that one- the over/under was 67 and the combined point total was 84. You’re welcome if you laid your kids’ college fund down on that bet (I expect 7%). I’m still not a believer in Texas Tech but I must give their defense credit for holding a decent (albeit one-dimensional (75th in rushing) offense in check. Turnovers played a big part in the game- with Texas Tech having a + 4 advantage. Let’s not get too carried away though with a win over Kansas. Keep in mind KU was ranked 23rd and is the very first ranked team Texas Tech has played this year.

Gut check time this coming weekend when # 1 Texas comes in to Lubbock. I still think Texas Tech is going to lose their next three games, but job well done against an opponent with a pulse.

2.) I nearly nailed Oklahoma -v- Kansas State. The line for OU-KSU was 18 but I said the Sooners would win by 30+. Final score Oklahoma- 58, Kansas State- 35. That’s a 23-point margin in case you went to an SEC school so not 30+ but definitely beating the spread. The Sooners have a fascinating stretch run with Nebraska at home this Saturday, road trip to Texas A&M then an off-week before finishing up with Texas Tech at home and Oklahoma State on the road. Looks like the Big XII is going to continue to be a lot fun to watch the next few weeks.

3.) No sense in lingering over my awesomeness in picking a Florida blowout over Kentucky.

Despite my prediction, I was still stunned at the dominance Florida produced following an off-week against a team that they could have easily coasted by. Next up is the big one with Georgia this Saturday- the same Georgia team mind you that beat Florida last year and kicked ‘em in the nuts with their full-team touchdown celebration. Here’s the video in case you need a refresher:

You better believe that moment has been stewing in Sensei Urban Meyer’s psyche for an entire year. He and the Kobra Kai Gators will be ready for Georgia and they will sweep the leg- no mercy on the Bulldogs (skip forward to 1:42 of the clip).

After Florida beats Georgia this weekend, they’ll take over 1st place in the SEC East and finish with Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Citadel, and Florida State. Following wins in those games, they’ll move on to beat Alabama in the SEC championship game and then likely take Penn State’s spot in the national championship (assuming Texas wins out). Like it or not, the Gators are not going away this year.

4.) I highlighted the differences in quarterbacks between Georgia and LSU as the biggest key to the game. On LSU’s 1st offensive play from scrimmage, QB Jarrett Lee threw an interception which was returned for a touchdown by Georgia. Lee followed it up with two more interceptions in LSU’s 52-38 loss. Neither defense played very well in a game that featured nearly 1,000 yards of offense, but Georgia did enough to get the win and keep their title hopes alive leading up to Florida this weekend. LSU still has Alabama on the schedule, but even if they win out, they need Alabama to lose another conference game to make the SEC Championship. They won’t so expect Alabama to play (lose to) Florida.

5.) Which defense has more of a right to be pissed off- Ohio State or Tennessee? The Volunteer defense has played with heart this year, despite zero support from the offense. How little support? Try 18.4 points per game which is good (bad) for 107th in the country. That’s the sole reason why Tennessee is 3-5 this year and barring a miracle, they won’t be bowling for the second time in four years. Also consider since the national championship in 1998, the Volunteers are 3-5 in the bowl games they’ve made it to. All of that spells the likely end for Phil Fulmer so go ahead and get your resumes in: http://www.utsports.com/. Wouldn’t it be ironic too for Fulmer to be fired on the 10-year anniversary of his national championship. You wanna bet too that the day that happens, Spurrier calls him up to ask for a tee time?

6.) As I predicted, Michigan State did beat Michigan. No matter how bad Ohio State fans feel, at least they’re not Michigan who’s 2-6 with all four games remaining on their schedule as conceivable losses. If you keeping score at home, and I know you are, Michigan currently holds the record for most consecutive bowl appearances (33) and the longest current streak of non-losing seasons (40). Both of those records are getting rich-rolled (trademarked) this year. If you also assume they’re going to finish 2-10 (gasp), you have to go back to Bump Elliott in 1968 when the last time a Michigan team played so badly (2-7 final record). It’s not all RichRod’s fault of course, saying the cupboards are bare in Ann Arbor is a gross understatement. Still, Rodriguez has managed to undo 20 years of Bo Schembechler’s hard work in one season- way to go.

7.) Arizona did stay close with USC losing 17-10. The ‘Zona defense played admirably holding USC to only 17 points but like Tennessee and Ohio State, got zero support from the offense. Arizona totalled 188 yards on 61 offensive possessions, or a little over 3 yards per play. Nice.

8.) That crazy Juice Williams. Just when I highlight that he had only thrown one interception in the last three games, he comes up with three interceptions against Wisconsin. Score that as me getting Jacquizzed by Juice. And now that I’ve typed that, pornographic advertisements probably will start showing up on this site- thank you Google Adsense. In all seriousness- how about the Big Ten “powers” this year- Michigan is 2-6 and both Wisconsin and Illinois are 4-4. Damn.

9.) As I predicted, Texas beat Oklahoma State but it was much closer than Vegas thought it would be (4 points instead of 12). Oklahoma State had Texas on the ropes at several points but either because of mistakes or lack of execution just couldn’t get it done. The Cowboys availed themselves to be a very quality football team and will be a challenge for whomever they play in their bowl game.

10.) One play. It’s not fair for the kid (Terrelle Pryor), but it all came down to one play. About 11 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, OSU up 6-3, Penn State had just missed a game-tying field goal, and Ohio State was finally starting to establish some continuity in the running game. Full-blown run out the clock Tressel-ball. 3rd and 1 and a QB sneak was called. Pryor saw the Penn State defense rushing the line of scrimmage like Democrats to the voting booth and decided to kick outside. The ball gets knocked loose, Penn State recovers. One 15-yard pass interference call and a couple lunges forward and backup QB Pat Devlin is the hero.

I certainly didn’t expect Tressel-ball to break out what with Penn State coming averaging many dozens of points per game. The problem with that plan is that it’s far too dangerous to play Tressel-ball with a freshman at Quarterback. Not that Todd Boeckman necessarily would have done any better, it’s just not realistic or fair to ask a freshman to play a mistake-free game against a defense as good as Penn State. And that’s the strategic mistake that the Ohio State coaching staff made that cost the team the game, a shot at a third Big Ten title in a row, and perhaps a chance at playing in the national championship (again).

Further breakdowns to come on this game, but needless to say, I was wrong in picking Ohio State to win.

You’re welcome.

The stakes are getting bigger and there’s also reliable statistical data so we’re adding match up stats for most of the key weekend games.

1.) Can Texas Tech keep hope alive against Kansas? This game is a mirror exercise- Texas Tech has the best pass offense in the country; Kansas isn’t far behind. Texas Tech nearly has the worst pass defense in the country; Kansas isn’t much ahead. The over and under on this game is 67 and I say take the over. If I had any money left in my 401k, I’d sink it in the over. I’m not saying Texas Tech isn’t any good, I’m just saying they’ve beaten nobody. And I think the ride ends for the Red Raiders.

2.) How much is Oklahoma going to beat Kansas State by- 20 or 30? The line is 18 but I’m going with 30+. The Sooners only beat Kansas by 24 last week but Kansas has a better defense than KSU. Plus, Oklahoma has an inferiority complex and too many other Big XII teams have been getting attention.

3.) Will Kentucky make it interesting @ Florida? In a word- no. Kentucky at full strength could have made for a very good game, but no running back and multiple losses on defense have left the Wildcats a shell of their former cat-ness.

4.) Who will be left standing between Georgia and LSU? One of them will have two losses which (barring insanity) leaves them out of the national title picture. Both teams are coming off underwhelming wins, and neither looks to be what most people expected of them. The game is at LSU so that’s an obvious advantage for the Tigers, but not enough of one.

Georgia simply has too great an advantage at Quarterback for me to pick LSU. I’ve been hard on Georgia QB Matthew Stafford frequently in the past, and though he’s still prone to throw too many interceptions, he’s far better than the options at LSU. Plus, the play-action with Knowshon Moreno will be enough to keep that ferocious LSU pass rush off-balance.

There are rare occasions when teams play two quarterbacks because they complement each other and provide match up problems for the opposition. The other scenario is that a coach plays two quarterbacks hoping that the sum of their parts will equal one decent quarterback (it doesn’t, I checked the math). LSU suffers from the latter, and I’m going to stop there because that’s the nicest thing I can say about Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch.

It would have been interesting to see what this LSU could have done with Ryan Perriloux at Quarterback. He should have been kicked off the team prior to the National Championship game though so at least Les Miles got a ring for his troubles.

5.) Has Tennessee quite on Phil Fulmer? Alabama has been playing with fire this year and they travel to Knoxville to play a Tennessee team that has been battered and bruised this year. Tennessee has a very solid defense but their offense has been surprisingly anemic, including a pretty poor running game. RB Arian Foster has yet to really get on track, and that’s after nearly 1,200 yards last season. It’s mostly because the Volunteers have been playing catch up so often this year, but they must keep the game close so they can keep running the football. I also think Alabama QB John Parker Wilson is due for a bad game. He’s thrown double digit interceptions each of the last two years but only has three this year. Most of that success is because Julio Jones is a freak and can catch anything within two zip codes of him. Nonetheless, I expect Wilson to struggle a bit today and for the Volunteers to sack up and win.

6.) Can Michigan State finally beat their big brother Michigan? If ever there was a year, this is the year. Michigan is 2-5. Michigan State is 6-2 but is coming off an emotional crushing at Ohio State last week. Michigan State is favored by 4 so it’s not an upset, but I like the Spartans to finally get a win (six straight losses) in Ann Arbor.

7.) Will Arizona stay with USC? USC knows they have to win with style in their remaining games, but they’ve got a tricky road game against a good (albeit unranked) Wildcat team. I’ll be pulling for Arizona to pull off the upset and put a bullet in the Pac-10 once and for all, but I don’t think USC is going to get Jacquizzed again.

8.) Will Wisconsin salvage their disaster of a season when Illinois comes calling today? Not bloody likely. Wisconsin is one-dimensional on offense which is why they’re 0-4 in conference play. Illinois QB Juice Williams is showing his mid-season form, only throwing one interception in the last three games. Illinois is below average against the run but Wisconsin is going to need some plays in the passing game in order to win.

9.) Can Oklahoma State upset Texas? They can but they won’t. Oklahoma State is a quality team but save for the 5-point win over Missouri, they haven’t beaten anybody. Texas looks to be on a mission, and that mission includes beating the Cowboys at home this afternoon.

10.) Who’s going to be left standing in the Big Ten? Penn State has been the most consistent and dominant team this year. The grain of salt that that fact has to be taken with is that Penn State has played the 100th ranked schedule (according to Sagarin). Darryll Clark hasn’t really been challenged this year, only getting sacked six times and throwing two interceptions. PSU hasn’t played a defense anywhere near the caliber of Ohio State so they will definitely be challenged tonight.

Here’s a statistical nugget for you- PSU’s Derrick Williams gets all the press as the dangerous punt return man in this match up but did you know, Derrick Williams ranks 35th nationally behind Ohio State’s Ray Small at 17th for punt returns (14 yards per return for Small compared with 10.3 per return for Williams). So when analysts and TV types are hyping Williams today, know that statistically, Small is a better returner.

The stakes are high- if Penn State wins they’re coasting into the National Championship game. Also relevant is that I suspect Penn State is playing for their legendary coach JoePa and what could (likely will be?) his final season as head coach.

If Ohio State loses, the hopes for a third straight conference title are over. Not only that, but the last thread of their national reputation is on the line. With high consecutive high profile losses against Florida, LSU, and USC, this is likely the last opportunity for Ohio State to prove not only that they are nationally relevant, but that they should be. Ohio State has been good the last two weeks but too inconsistent this season for me to have any level of comfort about the outcome.

The bottom line for this game, as has been the case for the Buckeyes all season, is that turnovers will determine the outcome. Ohio State is # 1 in the country in turnovers gained and # 4 in turnover margin. Penn State has turned the ball over only 8 times; Ohio State only 9. If Ohio State can get the turnovers, they win. It’s as simple as that.

Ohio State has obviously not played well in litmus test games in recent history, but I think they’re going to put it together tonight and beat Penn State in a very close game, possibly even in overtime.

You’re welcome.

Today’s a travel day for Red and crew so the biggest question I can’t wait to be answered is whether or not the XM radio will deliver the games I need it to. So much to look forward to Saturday, and in chronological order, not order of significance-

1.) Oklahoma -v- Texas at high noon (I like OU)
2.) Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State at 2:30 (Vandy)
3.) Nebraska @ Texas Tech at 3:30 (TT, Nebraska D not there yet)
4.) Tennessee @ Georgia at 3:30 (UGA to win)
5.) Purdue @ Ohio State at 3:30 (OSU better roll)
6.) Notre Dame @ North Carolina at 3:30 (ND going down)
7.) Michigan State @ undefeated Northwestern at 3:30 (I like MSU)
8.) Oklahoma State @ Missouri at 8 (Mizzou big)
9.) Penn State @ Wisconsin (like PSU)

and the night-capper
10.) LSU @ Florida (Florida wins)

I’m on vacation next week but will be checking in from time to time and Mark O. has been generous to pinch hit the rest. Have a great weekend!

I have to give Vanderbilt credit for beating a tough Auburn team at home 14-13. I predicted a tight game, but an Auburn victory. With a 5-0 start for the first time since 1943, and at a real academic school to boot, Vanderbilt has to be one of the biggest stories of the season thus far. The Commodore offense was prettier than usual and got it done with their backup Quarterback Mackenzi Adams (which incidentally is the name of a girl I went to high school with). Vanderbilt fans got a gift Saturday with Adams’ performance. Last season Adams threw 9 touchdowns to 6 interceptions so look for a second game slump should Adams start next week against Mississippi State.

Highlights: (13) Auburn - (19) Vandy

The tough games lie ahead for Vanderbilt with Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, and Wake Forest all still on the schedule, but this team’s going bowling for sure.

For Auburn, another close game and more questions at quarterback. The last four games for Auburn have been decided by an average of two points and have resulted in two wins and two losses. They’ve got an easy stretch the next four games before finishing with Georgia and Alabama, but as inconsistent as this team has been, expect at least one loss in the next four.

At quarterback for Auburn they were a dreadful 10 of 22 for 98 yards. This team is 104th in the nation in passing and without much help rushing, they’re going to continue to struggle against quality opponents.

The USC Trojans did what they do- follow up a loss to a team they shouldn’t lose to by blowing out a team that is decent. They dragged their feet through the first quarter and then exploded winning by a final score of 44-10. Get ready for the “playing the best of anyone” discussion, it’s coming to an internet near you in four to five weeks.

Penn State won again but didn’t roll like they should have. They rolled up plenty of yards but had difficulty getting into the end zone with only two touchdowns. I’m giving Penn State a pass because they’ve been so dominant in other games, but another performance like this week against Wisconsin next and I’m going to start asking questions. Purdue struggled mightily against the PSU defense, and special teams didn’t help missing two field goals and an extra point.

Highlights: (6) Penn State - Purdue

There’s definitely something afoul in State College- either Darryl Clark is playing out of his mind or the Penn State offensive coaches are incompetent. Darryl Clark is the 11th best quarterback in the nation according to passer rating and has nine touchdowns against only one interception. Last season, while Anthony Morelli was doing his best impersonation of a Notre Dame quarterback (high expectations, low performance), Clark was limited to a total of 9 passes. If Clark is this good, why wasn’t he given a chance last season? Nittany Lion fans should be pulling together their frothiest elected Democrats and demanding an immediate inquiry.

OSU freshman QB Terrelle Pryor did get his first road win against a band-less Wisconsin team and continued to show development. Pryor made lots of young mistakes including several sacks that didn’t need to be, but he also showed the kind of swagger and production that indicates a star in the making. The game was a watershed one for an underachieving, seemingly uninspired Buckeye team, and could provide a springboard for them for the rest of the season. Ohio State settling for field goals in the red zone continues to be a problem theme.

Highlights: (14) Ohio St. - (18) Wisc.

In one of my favorite non-football moments of the season, cornerback Malcolm Jenkins got his dance on during the “Jump Around” festivities in Madison. Evidence of the kind of “playing loose” that Ohio State needs to exhibit more of in big games.

Alabama did not handle being # 2 well, just as I predicted. They scraped by and got a gift with the late game fumble of Glen Coffee rolling out of bounds instead of into the waiting hands of the Kentucky defender. Still, they got the win which is all that matters for the BCS, and I found my new second favorite running back. Junior Glen Coffee is the real deal- 6-2, 200 pounds, plenty of speed, and legitimate moves. Look for him to continue to have a big year and be a Heisman candidate next year should he return for his senior season.

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I also have to call out Kentucky for one of the worst onside kicks ever. If you saw the game, you know what I’m talking about. The ball didn’t even bounce; the kicker hit a line drive right out of bounds. I’m no kicker but I know I could at least get a couple bounces out of the ball. Nice.

Also as I predicted, Kansas State did not upset Texas Tech. Texas Tech blew out the Wildcats 58-28 and continues to be devastating on offense, but also one of the more over-rated teams in the country.

Highlights: (7) Texas Tech - Kansas St

Finally, and you’re probably getting sick of me being right all the time, but Michigan did not beat Illinois. As I predicted, they did not have the athletes to hang with the Illini and lost 45-20. Michigan did show some life in the passing game, but surprisingly couldn’t keep the Illinois offense in check. I’ve often been hard on Juice Williams in the past, but he was very solid with a 50% completion percentage, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He also had 121 yards rushing.

Looking at the rest of Michigan’s schedule- 6-6 is a good outcome. More likely is 5-7 with the Wolverines missing out on a bowl game. Ouch.

You’re welcome.

Despite last weekend’s upsets and #10 South Florida going down on Thursday night, expect a pretty scripted Saturday today. There are a couple teams on alert but most of the top ten has overcooked macaroni noodles for opponents (Kraft Mac-n-cheese noodles that cook way too long, you know what I’m talking about).

1.) Can Vanderbilt keep their SEC Cinderella story alive? Not bloody likely. Vandy’s been doing it with smoke & mirrors this year, plus a decent defense. The offense is not pretty, ranking 112th in total offense. The fact that they’re #1 in the nation in turnover margin is why they’re undefeated. Auburn rolls into town with a slightly better offense (not much) but a markedly better defense. I like Auburn to win but it’s going to be close.

2.) Will USC lose their second game in a row? Nope. This is not Dennis Dixon’s Oregon team coming into south L.A. Oregon is 4-1 but has wins over Washington State, Utah, Purdue, and Washington State, plus the loss to Boise State. Oregon will try to take advantage of the Trojan’s weakness by running right at them, but expect the Trojans win by at least 10.

3.) Will Penn State keep rolling? Purdue proved last week against Notre Dame that their defense is nothing to be feared. In fact, Purdue ranks dead last in defense in the Big Ten. That’s not a good match up for a Penn State team that looks just about unbeatable. The game’s at Purdue so that might keep the margin of loss within three touchdowns.

4.) Does Bo Pelini have Nebraska ready for a big time win? Missouri has lost to Nebraska 15 straight times in Lincoln. Nebraska was playing well until their loss to Virginia Tech last week. This Missouri team is exponentially better than anything Nebraska has seen this year so will be interesting as a measuring stick. Nebraska lost 41-6 last year at Missouri.

5.) Can OSU Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor get his first conference road win? 8pm kick in Madison means lots of noise, lots of drunken co-eds, and lots of projectiles being hurled from the stands. Wisconsin is coming off their Jeckell & Hyde loss to Michigan last week and will be happy to return to Camp Randall. Wisconsin has won 27 of the last 28 at home and Ohio State has not fared well in Madison over the last ten years. Ohio State’s front seven on defense has been surprisingly average at times this year, but will need to be dominant in order to stop the Wisconsin running game and force Wiscy QB Allan Evridge to win the game (he can’t). Wisconsin got gashed by the zone read last week at Michigan- they better do a lot better this week against Pryor.

6.) Can Alabama handle being ranked # 2? ‘Bama’s back home after beating down UGA last week. A 4-0 Kentucky team comes in that’s largely untested but has the #1 scoring defense in the country. The spread is 15.5 which is way too generous here, and Kentucky may even be able to pull off the upset win.

7.) Can Kansas State upset Texas Tech? Both offenses are high scoring and neither team has played anybody of consequence. Texas Tech is going to lose games this year, just not this one.

8.) Will Michigan beat Illinois? They will not. The comeback against Wisconsin last week was a nice story and a good step for Rich Rod, but they don’t have the athletes to hang with Illinois.